ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

As of 18:00 UTC Jun 18, 2017:

Location: 7.3°N 49.4°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: 40 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 120 NM

[Hurricane Andrew]

Saved RGB loop. Starting to look like something/

Ooh, she's beautiful. Reminds me of 2010's first 92L in many ways, although 92L was further north, and fought a lot of SAL and shear.

[Siker]

Looks like a feeder band is getting set up to the southwest.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like 92l Is going to beat 93l to the punch very likely will have Bret by the time recon gets there ..

[Blinhart]

Sorry but it doesn't look to impressive and the shape could be because of the land interaction it is already starting to get, doubt if it will be anything more than a TD.

[weathaguyry]

If trend keeps going the way it has been over the last few hours, maybe we can have TD 2 at 11PM?

[1900hurricane]

92L is starting to look pretty classic on microwave actually. It might not be that far off from being something classifiable.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
get off the plane and boy this has done some developing. Only early system quite like this one might be June 1933 (no hurricane I hope)

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/876516318496817156

[Hammy]

Sorry but it doesn't look to impressive and the shape could be because of the land interaction it is already starting to get, doubt if it will be anything more than a TD.

I don't think there's much land interaction yet--the actual circulation area is very small.

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
#92L needs hour-by-hour watching now. At such a small size, a structured central convective burst like this can result in rapid development

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/876525260769816578

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This is a tropical depression.

[Yellow Evan]

While 92L looks much better and I'm starting to see actual curved banding, there's something I don't like about this invest. This is slightly off topic, but I think it's a good idea to compare and contrast this invest near classification to others.













To me, 92L just looks different compared to these Pacific systems and I can't really describe it in words.

[RL3AO]

Will this convective burst be enough to lead to TC genesis? Only has one or two more nights to get it done.

[RL3AO]

BREAKING: Advisories will begin on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 5pm.
 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/876534458324832256

[RL3AO]

If you're not aware of the change for this season, the NHC will begin issuing advisories on potential tropical cyclones if they are likely to develop and impact land within 48 hours. This will allow watches and warnings to be issued even though the system is not yet a tropical cyclone.

[AutoPenalti]

If you're not aware of the change for this season, the NHC will begin issuing advisories on potential tropical cyclones if they are likely to develop and impact land within 48 hours. This will allow watches and warnings to be issued even though the system is not yet a tropical cyclone.

Pretty awesome. I was questioning why they did this, thanks for the answer.

[wxman57]

Sure, they pick the easy one! What about 93L? Higher chance of development within 48hrs and it will be producing TS winds on land (western Cuba) by tomorrow.

[RL3AO]

Sure, they pick the easy one! What about 93L? Higher chance of development within 48hrs and it will be producing TS winds on land (western Cuba) by tomorrow.

That was my thought too...

Maybe PTC Three isn't far away.

EDIT: They probably aren't confident it will actually be a TC before impacts in Cuba and Mexico. Therefore no watch/warning.

[Hammy]

So they're initiating advisories on a "potential" system, but my question is what happens if it doesn't develop after that? Won't that further undermine public confidence in the warnings?

[AxaltaRacing24]

So they're initiating advisories on a "potential" system, but my question is what happens if it doesn't develop after that? Won't that further undermine public confidence in the warnings?

That would be interesting. Although it is looking more and more like this one will and I think that the NHC also sees that.