ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Siker]

So the 00z Euro and most of its ensembles failed to develop this due to what looks like dry air, but the rest of the models are hanging on for now. This is literally exactly what happened with 99L (later Hermine) last year, in the same spot.

[GCANE]

Too bad I can post images at the moment due to tech issues.
But, looks like an area of convection is associated with the surface low ASCAT has measured.

[Siker]

latest SHIPS output has strong shear in its path. Could be in the 25-30 kt range.

Probably from low level easterlies due to the SAL outbreak. Gulf system development chances may be higher than this one

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL992017 08/03/17 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 36 41 49 56 61 64 65 66 67
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 36 41 49 56 61 64 65 66 67
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 34 39 45 50 53 53 53 50
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 9 4 1 11 23 20 13 22 25 19
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 8 5 7 7 -2 -3 1 4 3 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 25 15 34 56 44 181 55 81 54 330 277 252 231

Would that partially have to do with the strange whipping track depicted on the TABM?

[Alyono]

I do not use those models. Wouldn't give them any weight

[GCANE]

AMSU is showing the CoC at 8N 20W at 12Z

[Siker]

I do not use those models. Wouldn't give them any weight

Well yes of course, but what track does the SHIPS use for its conditions? I'm having trouble finding documentation online.

[GCANE]

Air 100% saturated top of Boundary Layer to 150mb.
Ideal environment for warm-core development.

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/893096241973923845

[TheStormExpert]

00z Euro not so bullish anymore while the GFS becomes much more bullish.

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/893081903120752640

[tarheelprogrammer]

With the ECMWF dropping it I have lost some faith in this being more than a TD or a weak TS. Just an opinion of course, and the ECMWF is not always right.

[RL3AO]

With the ECMWF dropping it I have lost some faith in this being more than a TD or a weak TS. Just an opinion of course, and the ECMWF is not always right.

But a majority of its ensembles develop it and they have been for a while now.

[WeatherEmperor]

With the ECMWF dropping it I have lost some faith in this being more than a TD or a weak TS. Just an opinion of course, and the ECMWF is not always right.

But a majority of its ensembles develop it and they have been for a while now.

Can you post a graphic of the Euro ensembles? I would like to see how many of the members show development.


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[RL3AO]

Can you post a graphic of the Euro ensembles? I would like to see how many of the members show development.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

I don't have access to them. I'm usually waiting for Ryan Maue or Michael Ventrice to post them on Twitter. It is worth noting that almost all of the EPS runs are weak.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/893099282877775872

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/892951344444788737

[Hypercane_Kyle]

With the ECMWF dropping it I have lost some faith in this being more than a TD or a weak TS. Just an opinion of course, and the ECMWF is not always right.

Wouldn't be so hasty, note the differences in the timeline between the ECMWF and the GFS/UKMET. ECMWF much faster than all of the global models. Plus it's now that time of year where this climatologically favored, thus development should be given more credence than a TD/weak TS.

Agreed that the GOMEX system could be the greater threat in the long run though.

[OuterBanker]

06z GFS takes a Hurricane into Georgia... Note, after landfall the Low continues NW into the SE CONUS and not a quick recurve...

Really now. It's kinda funny how many times the GFS depicts landfall in Ga. Yet I can't ever remember one actually making landfall in Ga.

I guess they still don't have a clue.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS takes a Hurricane into Georgia... Note, after landfall the Low continues NW into the SE CONUS and not a quick recurve...

Really now. It's kinda funny how many times the GFS depicts landfall in Ga. Yet I can't ever remember one actually making landfall in Ga.

I guess they still don't have a clue.

Long range landfalls from the E between Central Florida & Savannah tells me high pressure is a big feature. Even more concerning was the system continued NW inland. If HP is a big feature once 99L reaches near the CONUS, that track usually goes into SFL or Carolinas, if it is a landfall.

[cycloneye]

Is too early to say for sure if this system will affect the Leeward and Windward Islands but those who live in those islands keep visiting this thread as all the information will be available.

Thanks. Soon after you created this thread, I informed a local Facebook weather group of which I'm a member, about it.

Very good about keeping your friends informed.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
#99L looks interesting over the E Atlantic with some structure and banding already- definitely one to watch over the next few days

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/893103154212065280

[Alyono]

With the ECMWF dropping it I have lost some faith in this being more than a TD or a weak TS. Just an opinion of course, and the ECMWF is not always right.

But a majority of its ensembles develop it and they have been for a while now.

they do, but they then kill it off before even reaching the islands