ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Surveying the models, it looks like 3 scenarios could play out
1) Starts to spin up today and moves to the East-Carib Graveyard where it'll be dried and shredded.
2) Another LLC forms tomorrow in this soup slightly east and makes a bee-line to the Bahamas.
3) Wave survives East Carib and could refire in West Carib.

[weathaguyry]

If this develops into a tropical cyclone, it would make me very scared that we have already seen 3 tropical cyclones in the MDR before August

[northjaxpro]

NHC bumped it to 40% in 120 hours.

Well, we may get a weak tropical cyclone from this, but like its predecessor, 94L, dry air and shear will likely kill it once it approaches the Caribbean.

[p1nheadlarry]

why are we even looking at SHIPS or LGE? Is this a depression now?

How I feel about hwrf, spins up lows with the potential to be a tc too quickly.

[Weather150]

I find it interesting the GFS Para, with it being conservative, came in stronger than the GFS and CMC.

[GCANE]

Huge line of west winds on Windsat 2.5 hrs ago.
Not sure what the technical name would be; perhaps extended monsoon trough?
Can see it clearly on MIMIC-TPW.
Wave is clearly shown on the west portion of this.
Strong and extended area of LL Convergence.
Something else could pop out of this later.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[p1nheadlarry]

Woah another aew with potential to develop in July. This could be some season in a few weeks folks enjoy the slow time.

Nah. Watch this one develop into a TS but have people on here say "another storm that gets sheared in the Caribbean! It's way to hostile for any hurricanes this year!"

Maybe for this time of year

[chaser1]

I find it interesting the GFS Para, with it being conservative, came in stronger than the GFS and CMC.

Rumor has it, Animal Control was called out due to the many and increasing number of CMC produced ferral tropical cyclones. CMC was allusive but eventually caught. It has since been neutered and released back into the Model wild. Seems its just a shell of its former self. We'll have to wait and see. (sigh ~~~~ good times)

[Alyono]

why are we even looking at SHIPS or LGE? Is this a depression now?

How I feel about hwrf, spins up lows with the potential to be a tc too quickly.

MAJOR difference between the two pre genesis. HWRF can handle invests as it is a dynamical model. SHIPS assumes everything is a cyclone

[chaser1]

why are we even looking at SHIPS or LGE? Is this a depression now?

How I feel about hwrf, spins up lows with the potential to be a tc too quickly.

(HWRF = Hurricanes Wildly & Rapidly Forming)

[p1nheadlarry]

why are we even looking at SHIPS or LGE? Is this a depression now?

How I feel about hwrf, spins up lows with the potential to be a tc too quickly.

MAJOR difference between the two pre genesis. HWRF can handle invests as it is a dynamical model. SHIPS assumes everything is a cyclone

No disagreement there. Just from what I can recall the last few seasons, HWRF has been bullish on young systems in the mdr; something not quite gauged right with the synoptic environment (I guess all models are simplified, they will improve). But it is the best intensity model we have for now.

[GCANE]

The trough is quickly firing west-to-east convection and then it quickly washes out.

Two areas to watch
1) The area on the west side under the wave.
2) The area on the east side.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[GCANE]

Latest ASCAT
Two 850mb Vorts
SAL & WV

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2017071612, , BEST, 0, 106N, 440W, 20, 1011, DB

[RL3AO]

ATCF Best Track
System ID: AL95 (INVEST)
1200 UTC Jul 16, 2017
Location: 10.6°N, 44.0°N
Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 20 kt (23 mph)
Type: Disturbance (DB)

[1900hurricane]

Regardless of what happens to this invest, I have to say I've been fairly impressed with the monsoon trough's persistent extension west into the central Atlantic so far this season.

[srainhoutx]

Regardless of what happens to this invest, I have to say I've been fairly impressed with the monsoon trough's persistent extension west into the central Atlantic so far this season.

The extension of the Monsoonal trough so far East into the Central Atlantic should give the naysayers pause regarding what the rest of this Hurricane Season holds for the North Atlantic. Climatology suggest 75% of the storms that form in the Atlantic, do so beyond July 15th. There are already some indications that a CCKW and potentially a favorable MJO arrive around the first of August.

[NDG]

How I feel about hwrf, spins up lows with the potential to be a tc too quickly.

MAJOR difference between the two pre genesis. HWRF can handle invests as it is a dynamical model. SHIPS assumes everything is a cyclone

No disagreement there. Just from what I can recall the last few seasons, HWRF has been bullish on young systems in the mdr; something not quite gauged right with the synoptic environment (I guess all models are simplified, they will improve). But it is the best intensity model we have for now.

HWRF during the past Atlantic season did fairly well, once systems were formed. I remember it was one of the best models with Matthew while it was in the eastern Caribbean of it strengthening. Currently this year we all know how the GFS has struggled with recognizing the dry air environment over the Atlantic MDR, which the GFS feeds the HWRF thus why the HWRF will be also very bullish if it is fed bad information into it.

[NDG]

Dismiss the SHIPS model as mentioned above.

[JPmia]

Wasn't that one of the reasons why the 2005 season was so busy because of a favorable monsoon trough position?