ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#21 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:18 am

RL3AO wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:And here...we...go!

I'm still not entirely sold on development, but I think it has a shot at at least becoming a depression...don't systems this far south usually have trouble strengthening due to the reduced Coriolis effect?


η = ζ + f

η is absolute vorticity
ζ is relative vorticity
f is Coriolis

If relative vorticity is high enough (think 850 mb vorticity map) it can overcome the relative lack of Coriolis. Also, this wave should gain latitude quickly enough to be near 10°N in a few days. The lack of Coriolis won't be an issue.


Thank you for proving once again why Storm2k's such a great site to discuss tropical cyclones... this is an incredibly useful & informative equation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#22 Postby Siker » Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:23 am

Anyone have a good source for getting GOES-16 GIFs? A bit too lazy to combine the images from the loops creatable on this NASA site myself.

Clearly visible inflow on the western flank of the system, something which is often difficult to achieve for these fast moving waves:

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#23 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:26 am

Looks impressive today. Probably just about qualifies for TD status now. Good chance it will become a TS prior to reaching the Caribbean. Once in the eastern Caribbean it should quickly weaken as it runs into high shear. Could be a TS for Trinidad. That's unusual. I don't think that Trinidad has ever been hit by a hurricane (i.e., recorded 1-min 74+ mph winds with the passage of a TC).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#24 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:29 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks impressive today. Probably just about qualifies for TD status now. Good chance it will become a TS prior to reaching the Caribbean. Once in the eastern Caribbean it should quickly weaken as it runs into high shear. Could be a TS for Trinidad. That's unusual. I don't think that Trinidad has ever been hit by a hurricane (i.e., recorded 1-min 74+ mph winds with the passage of a TC).


Time to cancel those R&R passes for any hurricane hunter people. Will very likely be running missions from two bases in a few days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#25 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:35 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks impressive today. Probably just about qualifies for TD status now. Good chance it will become a TS prior to reaching the Caribbean. Once in the eastern Caribbean it should quickly weaken as it runs into high shear. Could be a TS for Trinidad. That's unusual. I don't think that Trinidad has ever been hit by a hurricane (i.e., recorded 1-min 74+ mph winds with the passage of a TC).


Yes, it's highly unusual. But if I'm not mistaken, I remember seeing an article on Wikipedia about a hurricane which did make landfall here in 1933, then passed over to Venezuela afterwards. However, it's an extremely uncommon occurrence.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#26 Postby Siker » Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:38 am

Remarkable short term trends in organization via the GFS. Now depicts a TS by 18 hours. Also Imgur is being very annoying on my phone:

https://imgur.com/a/gRdze
Last edited by Siker on Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#27 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:45 am

12Z Parallel MU makes this a TS between 12-18 hours from now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#28 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:50 am

Invest 92L will more than likely become Bret, as for the mess in the NW Caribbean I have doubts if that ever manages to become Cindy.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#29 Postby p1nheadlarry » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:10 am

Alyono wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:And here...we...go!

I'm still not entirely sold on development, but I think it has a shot at at least becoming a depression...don't systems this far south usually have trouble strengthening due to the reduced Coriolis effect?


η = ζ + f

η is absolute vorticity
ζ is relative vorticity
f is Coriolis

If relative vorticity is high enough (think 850 mb vorticity map) it can overcome the relative lack of Coriolis. Also, this wave should gain latitude quickly enough to be near 10°N in a few days. The lack of Coriolis won't be an issue.



too many talk about lack of coriolis because they do not understand the equation you discussed. You can get something slightly south of the equator even if the relative vorticity is strong enough. Nearly had an equator crosser in the CPAC in January of last year during the el niño. Gave Tarawa a major scare


If the Coriolis is weaker then it's more likely to be reluctant to drift polewards as well, right?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#30 Postby beoumont » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:11 am

June 24 - july 7, 1933

Best track had it reaching hurricane intensity at lat 9.6, lon. 59.0

Image
Last edited by beoumont on Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:17 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#31 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:14 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Invest 92L will more than likely become Bret, as for the mess in the NW Caribbean I have doubts if that ever manages to become Cindy.


:double: "IF" we soon have Bret out to the East, AND a named storm forms in the Gulf..... this would eclipse 1968 (June 23), as earlier date of having two Atlantic Tropical Storms at the same time. Does anyone else know of any other Atlantic season having an earlier date where there were two active tropical storms?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#32 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:17 am

Wow! :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#33 Postby AJC3 » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:40 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks impressive today. Probably just about qualifies for TD status now. Good chance it will become a TS prior to reaching the Caribbean. Once in the eastern Caribbean it should quickly weaken as it runs into high shear. Could be a TS for Trinidad. That's unusual. I don't think that Trinidad has ever been hit by a hurricane (i.e., recorded 1-min 74+ mph winds with the passage of a TC).


Take the intensities with a grain of salt, given the dates, but it is supposed to have happened in 1878 and 1933 (its track was already posted above), with another hurricane in 1892 passing close enough to the north coast of the island to possible have produced hurricane force winds there. Like I said...grain of salt.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#34 Postby tropicana » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:41 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks impressive today. Probably just about qualifies for TD status now. Good chance it will become a TS prior to reaching the Caribbean. Once in the eastern Caribbean it should quickly weaken as it runs into high shear. Could be a TS for Trinidad. That's unusual. I don't think that Trinidad has ever been hit by a hurricane (i.e., recorded 1-min 74+ mph winds with the passage of a TC).



Once that i know of.,,for Trinidad...way back in June of 1933. Interestingly, the 1933 hurricane was also unusually early for this part of the Atlantic. Trinidad has numerous oil derricks on it's east coast especially. The island is heavily populated, over 1.3 million people live in the islands of Trinidad and Tobago. A tropical wave was first observed near 40° W on June 23 1933. The next day, a ship in the region observed a closed circulation, suggesting that the tropical wave spawned a tropical depression about 1300 mi (2090 km) east of Trinidad. The storm moved westward and gradually intensified. By June 27, it attained hurricane status about 175 mi (280 km) east of Trinidad, based on a ship report of a barometric pressure of 991 mbar (29.27 in); it was the first of 11 hurricanes during the season. At around 2100 UTC on June 27, the hurricane made landfall on extreme southern Trinidad with winds of about 85 mph (137 km/h).After crossing the island, the hurricane struck the Paria Peninsula of northern Venezuela at the same intensity at 0200 UTC on June 28.

While the hurricane passed over Trinidad, it caused about $3 million in damage in the southern portion of the island. The storm destroyed 300 houses in one village, and thousands were left homeless. Trees across the island fell down and blocked many roads, including one that struck a car and seriously injured one man. Heavy damage was also reported to the cocoa industry. High winds destroyed about 60 oil derricks, and an 11 mi (18 km) oil supply line was disrupted due to fallen trees. This represented a significant loss to the island's oil industry, one of two such events in the 1930s. High winds downed power lines across the island, which were repaired by three days after the storm struck. The storm also dropped heavy rainfall and destroyed the roofs of many houses. Little damage occurred in the capital city of Port of Spain. There were 13 deaths in Trinidad, some of whom drowned after their boats sank. After the storm, medical assistance and relief supplies were sent via boat to Cedros, which was one of the most significantly affected areas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#35 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:46 am

Either this is a short term flare up or a rare GFS victory.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#36 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:52 am

1933 was one of those hyper-active years, you can see storm 2 that is being discussed above:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#37 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:55 am

tropicana wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks impressive today. Probably just about qualifies for TD status now. Good chance it will become a TS prior to reaching the Caribbean. Once in the eastern Caribbean it should quickly weaken as it runs into high shear. Could be a TS for Trinidad. That's unusual. I don't think that Trinidad has ever been hit by a hurricane (i.e., recorded 1-min 74+ mph winds with the passage of a TC).



Once that i know of.,,for Trinidad...way back in June of 1933. Interestingly, the 1933 hurricane was also unusually early for this part of the Atlantic. Trinidad has numerous oil derricks on it's east coast especially. The island is heavily populated, over 1.3 million people live in the islands of Trinidad and Tobago. A tropical wave was first observed near 40° W on June 23 1933. The next day, a ship in the region observed a closed circulation, suggesting that the tropical wave spawned a tropical depression about 1300 mi (2090 km) east of Trinidad. The storm moved westward and gradually intensified. By June 27, it attained hurricane status about 175 mi (280 km) east of Trinidad, based on a ship report of a barometric pressure of 991 mbar (29.27 in); it was the first of 11 hurricanes during the season. At around 2100 UTC on June 27, the hurricane made landfall on extreme southern Trinidad with winds of about 85 mph (137 km/h).After crossing the island, the hurricane struck the Paria Peninsula of northern Venezuela at the same intensity at 0200 UTC on June 28.

While the hurricane passed over Trinidad, it caused about $3 million in damage in the southern portion of the island. The storm destroyed 300 houses in one village, and thousands were left homeless. Trees across the island fell down and blocked many roads, including one that struck a car and seriously injured one man. Heavy damage was also reported to the cocoa industry. High winds destroyed about 60 oil derricks, and an 11 mi (18 km) oil supply line was disrupted due to fallen trees. This represented a significant loss to the island's oil industry, one of two such events in the 1930s. High winds downed power lines across the island, which were repaired by three days after the storm struck. The storm also dropped heavy rainfall and destroyed the roofs of many houses. Little damage occurred in the capital city of Port of Spain. There were 13 deaths in Trinidad, some of whom drowned after their boats sank. After the storm, medical assistance and relief supplies were sent via boat to Cedros, which was one of the most significantly affected areas


Wow, thanks a lot for that summary, I wasn't aware of most of those details.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#38 Postby Weatherboy1 » Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:08 pm

Is this real? A potential system in the MDR mid-way through June? I've died and gone to Storm2K heaven! Haha. But seriously, will be interesting to see if anything comes out of this. I remember a few TDs in June that formed way east of the islands over the past decade or so, but they mostly died out due to dry air entrainment and shear. We'll see if 92 is different this year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#39 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:10 pm

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922017 06/16/17 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 50 59 67 71 69 72 72
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 50 59 67 71 69 72 72
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 31 36 41 47 51 52 50 45
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 6 12 14 15 22 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 1 3 3 2 -2 1 9 10 3
SHEAR DIR 91 66 60 47 15 24 335 314 298 231 228 201 229
SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.0 28.3 27.9 28.2 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 145 145 144 145 147 141 145 139 142 145
ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 158 160 160 159 160 164 156 160 149 148 150
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -53.9 -54.6 -53.7 -54.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 8
700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 73 70 74 72 71 69 66 67 70 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 10 11 10
850 MB ENV VOR 28 27 24 19 18 32 19 38 15 10 4 19 20
200 MB DIV 50 37 47 44 19 30 -1 28 55 99 93 83 27
700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -2 -4 -5 3 0 8 3
LAND (KM) 1886 1747 1587 1407 1231 883 545 307 253 241 88 257 234
LAT (DEG N) 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.6 8.0 9.8 11.5 12.9 14.1
LONG(DEG W) 33.3 34.6 36.1 37.8 39.5 43.0 46.5 50.1 54.0 58.0 62.2 65.8 69.3
STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 17 17 18 18 19 22 22 21 18 18
HEAT CONTENT 31 33 37 43 46 49 54 50 20 34 11 20 35

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 36. 40. 45.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -1. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 30. 39. 47. 51. 50. 52. 52.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 5.0 33.3

** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 06/16/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.87 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.98 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 64.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.7% 31.6% 17.0% 5.9% 2.8% 18.5% 32.9% 38.6%
Bayesian: 0.7% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
Consensus: 2.5% 11.4% 5.8% 2.0% 0.9% 6.2% 11.0% 13.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 06/16/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 29 33 41 50 59 67 71 69 72 72
18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 30 38 47 56 64 68 66 69 69
12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 32 41 50 58 62 60 63 63
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#40 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:38 pm

Looks like a number of GFS ensembles are keeping this alive longer in the Caribbean on the 12Z run compared to the 06Z run, 168 hours below. Is it really June? :double:

Image
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