ATL: HARVEY - Models

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ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1981 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:25 am

12z UK has 964 mb at landfall in SE Texas.

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 23.08.2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 92.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2017 0 21.7N 92.3W 1007 25
0000UTC 24.08.2017 12 21.9N 92.1W 1003 29
1200UTC 24.08.2017 24 23.1N 92.6W 997 38
0000UTC 25.08.2017 36 24.1N 93.5W 990 43
1200UTC 25.08.2017 48 25.6N 94.5W 981 53
0000UTC 26.08.2017 60 27.3N 95.2W 972 62
1200UTC 26.08.2017 72 28.5N 95.4W 964 66
0000UTC 27.08.2017 84 29.3N 95.3W 967 59
1200UTC 27.08.2017 96 29.7N 95.2W 978 53
0000UTC 28.08.2017 108 29.8N 94.9W 982 42
1200UTC 28.08.2017 120 30.1N 94.7W 987 37
0000UTC 29.08.2017 132 30.3N 94.9W 994 31
1200UTC 29.08.2017 144 30.6N 95.9W 999 29
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1982 Postby mcheer23 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:26 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Better hope this run is fantasy, seeing a precip maxima of 50" SW of Houston on the 12z GFS...


Link?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1983 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:27 am

Up and out finally.

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1984 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:29 am

12Z Euro runs at 1:45 EDT / 12:45 CDT.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1985 Postby msp » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:29 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:12z UK has 964 mb at landfall in SE Texas.

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 23.08.2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 92.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2017 0 21.7N 92.3W 1007 25
0000UTC 24.08.2017 12 21.9N 92.1W 1003 29
1200UTC 24.08.2017 24 23.1N 92.6W 997 38
0000UTC 25.08.2017 36 24.1N 93.5W 990 43
1200UTC 25.08.2017 48 25.6N 94.5W 981 53
0000UTC 26.08.2017 60 27.3N 95.2W 972 62
1200UTC 26.08.2017 72 28.5N 95.4W 964 66
0000UTC 27.08.2017 84 29.3N 95.3W 967 59
1200UTC 27.08.2017 96 29.7N 95.2W 978 53
0000UTC 28.08.2017 108 29.8N 94.9W 982 42
1200UTC 28.08.2017 120 30.1N 94.7W 987 37
0000UTC 29.08.2017 132 30.3N 94.9W 994 31
1200UTC 29.08.2017 144 30.6N 95.9W 999 29


pretty similar track to 0z UKMET. it's been very consistent.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1986 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:32 am

msp wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:12z UK has 964 mb at landfall in SE Texas.

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 23.08.2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 92.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2017 0 21.7N 92.3W 1007 25
0000UTC 24.08.2017 12 21.9N 92.1W 1003 29
1200UTC 24.08.2017 24 23.1N 92.6W 997 38
0000UTC 25.08.2017 36 24.1N 93.5W 990 43
1200UTC 25.08.2017 48 25.6N 94.5W 981 53
0000UTC 26.08.2017 60 27.3N 95.2W 972 62
1200UTC 26.08.2017 72 28.5N 95.4W 964 66
0000UTC 27.08.2017 84 29.3N 95.3W 967 59
1200UTC 27.08.2017 96 29.7N 95.2W 978 53
0000UTC 28.08.2017 108 29.8N 94.9W 982 42
1200UTC 28.08.2017 120 30.1N 94.7W 987 37
0000UTC 29.08.2017 132 30.3N 94.9W 994 31
1200UTC 29.08.2017 144 30.6N 95.9W 999 29


pretty similar track to 0z UKMET. it's been very consistent.


Pretty similar in track for the last few runs. However, it has been incrementally increasing intensity over the last few model cycles.
Last edited by ColdMiser123 on Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1987 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:34 am

There's a lot of damage potential with the GFS. South Texas, SE Texas, Triangle, Jasper, Shreveport, Little Rock... I still think it goes in too quick which is why it's able to get so far west before turning. Also, the deflection into the Westerlies is a bit different from most of the other models that want to go a bit more ENE than N then E. I don't know.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1988 Postby hd44 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:35 am

mcheer23 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Better hope this run is fantasy, seeing a precip maxima of 50" SW of Houston on the 12z GFS...


Link?

He is right, its a swamp in Houston on the gfs 12z.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1989 Postby xironman » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:37 am

stormlover2013 wrote:CMC is horrible we all know that, GFS is a massive flood event so San Antonio all the way to Beaumont tx would be horrible


The CMC pegged Gert, though I think it is way off on this run. Models will do that occasionally, which is why it is interesting to look at the ensemble runs.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1990 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:41 am

HMON is coming in with a significantly stronger system compared to 6z.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1991 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:44 am

12z GFS rainfall totals from Ryan Maue Twitter:

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1992 Postby mcheer23 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:44 am

hd44 wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Better hope this run is fantasy, seeing a precip maxima of 50" SW of Houston on the 12z GFS...


Link?

He is right, its a swamp in Houston on the gfs 12z.



Was wondering if there was a link that doesn't cap off at 25 inches
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1993 Postby AubreyStorm » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:45 am

OMG! I will go up to Aubrey! This is insane!

GFS 12z outputs >50" in area of SE Texas --> inland flooding
Exact amount unknown but this ballpark extreme value rings alarm bells
#Harvey
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1994 Postby sphelps8681 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:47 am

tolakram wrote:12Z Euro runs at 1:45 EDT / 12:45 CDT.


Was there data from the planes trip yesterday in the runs so far today?
Last edited by sphelps8681 on Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1995 Postby Roxy » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:47 am

PTrackerLA wrote:12z GFS rainfall totals from Ryan Maue Twitter:

Image


Holy crap, I can't imagine what 27 inches would look like here.

Should we just be planning for a rain event? Or wind too?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1996 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:49 am

Very tough track forecast for the models. GFS numbers are crazy, but can and probably will be a lot different in subsequent runs.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1997 Postby davidiowx » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:49 am

Roxy wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:12z GFS rainfall totals from Ryan Maue Twitter:

Image


Holy crap, I can't imagine what 27 inches would look like here.

Should we just be planning for a rain event? Or wind too?


It would be safe to plan for both rain and wind. Wind may or may not be a threat, but everything is pointing towards a very dangerous flood event for all of SE Texas.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1998 Postby stormreader » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:52 am

msp wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:12z UK has 964 mb at landfall in SE Texas.

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 23.08.2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 92.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2017 0 21.7N 92.3W 1007 25
0000UTC 24.08.2017 12 21.9N 92.1W 1003 29
1200UTC 24.08.2017 24 23.1N 92.6W 997 38
0000UTC 25.08.2017 36 24.1N 93.5W 990 43
1200UTC 25.08.2017 48 25.6N 94.5W 981 53
0000UTC 26.08.2017 60 27.3N 95.2W 972 62
1200UTC 26.08.2017 72 28.5N 95.4W 964 66
0000UTC 27.08.2017 84 29.3N 95.3W 967 59
1200UTC 27.08.2017 96 29.7N 95.2W 978 53
0000UTC 28.08.2017 108 29.8N 94.9W 982 42
1200UTC 28.08.2017 120 30.1N 94.7W 987 37
0000UTC 29.08.2017 132 30.3N 94.9W 994 31
1200UTC 29.08.2017 144 30.6N 95.9W 999 29


pretty similar track to 0z UKMET. it's been very consistent.

Gotta like its consistency and been liking its output for the last couple of days. No deep penetration into Texas and then backing out over the GOM. Believe the landfall there would be just east of Galveston. Somewhere between Galveston and the Tex-La border. Still believe that's the best bet.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1999 Postby Portastorm » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:52 am

sphelps8681 wrote:
tolakram wrote:12Z Euro runs at 1:45 EDT / 12:45 CDT.


Was there data from the planes trip yesterday in the runs so far today?


Yes, that data began to be incorporated into the models in the 0z runs.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2000 Postby msp » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:54 am

both HMON and HWRF shifting south, also south/west shifts on GFS, CMC, etc.

is it just me or has the general pattern the last few days been S/W shifts on 12z runs and N/E shifts on 0z runs (across a number of models)?
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