ATL: HARVEY - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
CMC also further west. May not hit Texas or barely hit it.
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stormlover2013
Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
CMC is horrible we all know that, GFS is a massive flood event so San Antonio all the way to Beaumont tx would be horrible
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
I feel like this is a fantasy run but will keep going.
Moving up the coast.
Moving up the coast.
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mcheer23
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:CMC is horrible we all know that, GFS is a massive flood event so San Antonio all the way to Beaumont tx would be horrible
CMC basically moves this due west the next 24 hrs
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
No run to run consistency.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Moving NW back inland now.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:CMC is horrible we all know that, GFS is a massive flood event so San Antonio all the way to Beaumont tx would be horrible
I don't have the verification data, but I think it's performed better (anecdotally) since the upgrade last year. Also, don't forget it was the one model that didn't give up on 91L or 92L though it was a little faster and stronger with both. The only time there was an issue was for a short time mid last week when it felt like 92L would be the stronger system and would move into the NE Gulf. After that wasn't going to happen, it had a Western Gulf system and an off the NC Coast system. We'll see in a few days how that turned out. EC & GFS were inconsistent almost all last week into the weekend. I like them better now, though I'm not sure if the GFS is a bit too far south on the first landfall.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
deluge of historic proportions from victoria to houston on this GFS run. huge area of 24"+.
at 174hr it's 992mb over galveston bay
at 174hr it's 992mb over galveston bay
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Better hope this run is fantasy, seeing a precip maxima of 50" SW of Houston on the 12z GFS...
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Needless to say this would be a disaster.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
jasons wrote:I think this run is a bust; it's off from the beginning.
Even with all the data from different sources, the initialization should be spot on...shouldn't it ?
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Portastorm
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
slamdaddy wrote:jasons wrote:I think this run is a bust; it's off from the beginning.
Even with all the data from different sources, the initialization should be spot on...shouldn't it ?
The model initialized correctly, yes.
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