ATL: HARVEY - Models

[BigB0882]

I wonder if this will be the run showing it not making that first landfall and getting tugged E to ENE before hitting further up the TX coast? My big question is where does it go from there? North? E? People need to be prepared for the rain.

[Steve]

GFS looks too fast and too weak to me.

36 hours has the center at 24.75N / 94.4 W and sub 1004mb (which is what the nearest isobar outside the center is progged to be).

I don't know. I don't think it's a "bad" position, but I think maybe a hair fast and again maybe a bit weaker than what it will be then. But at the same time, I figured 24-36 hours last night until things really got cooking. So it may be okay provided it doesn't race for the TX Coast.

Edit 48 hours 26.2 / 95.9 and closing in on South Padre.

[hohnywx]

GFS looks too fast and too weak to me.

36 hours has the center at 24.75N / 94.4 W and sub 1004mb (which is what the nearest isobar outside the center is progged to be).

I don't know. I don't think it's a "bad" position, but I think maybe a hair fast and again maybe a bit weaker than what it will be then. But at the same time, I figured 24-36 hours last night until things really got cooking. So it may be okay provided it doesn't race for the TX Coast.

Well, considering the pressure is 1006mb right now, I don't think it is realistic to think it is only going to drop 2mb in 30 hours...

[tolakram]

Weakens it on approach.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

4 image trend. Landfall strength not much different from last run, but I think it's showing some disorganization until just before landfall.

[tolakram]

Looking at the 700mb vorticity you can see the lack of a good signature until just before landfall.

[tolakram]

Landfall



Lower pressure after landfall

[stormreader]

I wonder if this will be the run showing it not making that first landfall and getting tugged E to ENE before hitting further up the TX coast? My big question is where does it go from there? North? E? People need to be prepared for the rain.

That's been my thinking for a couple of days now. Trends have been running in that direction. Waiting with you.

[ronyan]

Umm it's way off what the 0z showed at hour 96.

[PTrackerLA]

Now heading West at 90 hrs to south of San Antonio, big change from the 06z run. GFS has not been consistent on what happens after landfall at all.

Edit: Starts moving south at 108 hours

[mcheer23]

I don't know how I feel about this run...Just weird to me

[ronyan]

It's just one run, but this could end up back over water for some time.

[Frank P]

at H114 looks to be making a loop...

[PTrackerLA]

Looks to be heading back towards the coast MUCH further south than the previous two runs. I still find this hard to believe but I wouldn't be surprised if it tries to crank in the Gulf again. What a headache.

[OntarioEggplant]

San Antonio would literally drown on this run of the GFS

[tolakram]

GFS goes in and west.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[ronyan]

Getting close to water H138. The precip map will be maxed in some areas this run.