ATL: HARVEY - Models

[weatherguy425]

I must clarify. I am not asking why he changed it. You said it was changed. I see no significant change from his previous discussion. He is a very sound meteorologist with a history in the energy industry.

I'm watching his WeatherBell members only video where he changed track from his last twitter post. Unfortunately he has not tweeted his latest track so I can't post it here.

No offense is intended, but my point was that there seems to be a lot of focus on individual model runs and it truly very subtle shifts in forecast consensus. There also seems to be some criticism of professional meteorologists and I just did not feel it was warranted.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Just saw the latest NAM talked about in the tropical tidbits, wow that is unreal. Good thing this is an outlier and not the best intensity model haha...
Cat 5 Landfall in South Texas late on 8/25, Holy S*** Batman!

Yup and that was with the 3km ultra high resolution model.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Just saw the latest NAM talked about in the tropical tidbits, wow that is unreal. Good thing this is an outlier and not the best intensity model haha...
Cat 5 Landfall in South Texas late on 8/25, Holy S*** Batman!

Yup and that was with the 3km ultra high resolution model.

Lol if that happened the Texas coast wouldn't exist !

[Blown Away]

Hmmm ... 12z guidance shows models shifting SW again. Looking forward to seeing NHC's thoughts at 10.

The intensity guidance still mostly TS strength up to landfall... Also Looking forward...

[tolakram]

Models thread folks, let's stick to model runs.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Just saw the latest NAM talked about in the tropical tidbits, wow that is unreal. Good thing this is an outlier and not the best intensity model haha...
Cat 5 Landfall in South Texas late on 8/25, Holy S*** Batman!

Yup and that was with the 3km ultra high resolution model.

Never said i buy the the run. Just saying that ultra high meso model had a f3/4 vort.

[Steve]

Just saw the latest NAM talked about in the tropical tidbits, wow that is unreal. Good thing this is an outlier and not the best intensity model haha...
Cat 5 Landfall in South Texas late on 8/25, Holy S*** Batman!

Yup and that was with the 3km ultra high resolution model.

Never said i buy the the run. Just saying that ultra high meso model had a f3/4 vort.

That's right. And we were knocking it last night because it's just not worth much effort in following it with anything that far south. For entertainment purposes though, that's a spectacular run as was the 00z which I think got down to the 890's and the 18z which I think was the like 923. Death, doom and destruction with the 3km NAM!

[gatorcane]

Haven't seen a model image posted in this thread in a while, here is the 12Z guidance:

[ROCK]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_09

[Steve]

NAM 12z's are running and are now completed. Here are the run downs:

3km (only goes out to 60 hours) still taking it into Cat 4 or Cat 5 territory with a hit on South Padre Island. No end game because it only goes out 2 1/2 days. I like the track well enough on this but clearly not the intensity.

12km approaching the Golden Triangle without ever having landfalled in Texas at 969 and intensifying. Mostly a hair west of due north movement on this through 81 hours with a north fade and then a clip NE/ENE at the very end looking like a landfall eventually in Cameron or Vermilion Parish Louisiana.

32km does about the same thing (now out to 84 hours) with a decidedly eastern component at the end. This looks like it would landfall in SW LA but probably somewhere between Lafayette and Houma (Vermillion and Terrebonne Bays). But you can't be sure it doesn't hug the coast and go in farther east because it only goes out to 84 hours. No landfall on this run either. 965mb at the end of run so making a push for Higher end Cat 2 and still looking like a beast.

[PTrackerLA]

NAM 12z's are running and are now completed. Here are the run downs:

3km (only goes out to 60 hours) still taking it into Cat 4 or Cat 5 territory with a hit on South Padre Island. No end game because it only goes out 2 1/2 days. I like the track well enough on this but clearly not the intensity.

12km approaching the Golden Triangle without ever having landfilled in Texas at 969 and intensifying. Mostly a hair west of due north movement on this through 81 hours with a north fade and then a clip NE/ENE at the very end looking like a landfall eventually in Cameron or Vermilion Parish Louisiana.

32km does about the same thing (now out to 84 hours) with a decidedly eastern component at the end. This looks like it would landfall in SW LA but probably somewhere between Lafayette and Houma (Vermillion and Terrebonne Bays). But you can't be sure it doesn't hug the coast and go in farther east because it only goes out to 84 hours. No landfall on this run either. 965mb at the end of run so making a push for Higher end Cat 2 and still looking like a beast.

The 12z 12km NAM scares the crap out of me keeping it offshore and pointing towards LA as a strong cane. Several EURO ensembles show this possibility as well.

[stormreader]

NAM 12z's are running and are now completed. Here are the run downs:

3km (only goes out to 60 hours) still taking it into Cat 4 or Cat 5 territory with a hit on South Padre Island. No end game because it only goes out 2 1/2 days. I like the track well enough on this but clearly not the intensity.

12km approaching the Golden Triangle without ever having landfilled in Texas at 969 and intensifying. Mostly a hair west of due north movement on this through 81 hours with a north fade and then a clip NE/ENE at the very end looking like a landfall eventually in Cameron or Vermilion Parish Louisiana.

32km does about the same thing (now out to 84 hours) with a decidedly eastern component at the end. This looks like it would landfall in SW LA but probably somewhere between Lafayette and Houma (Vermillion and Terrebonne Bays). But you can't be sure it doesn't hug the coast and go in farther east because it only goes out to 84 hours. No landfall on this run either. 965mb at the end of run so making a push for Higher end Cat 2 and still looking like a beast.

Thanks Steve. Really been following the NAM posts because it was one of the outlier models closest to my thinking. It kept the storm just offshore of the Texas coast. At the time it had landfall near Tex-La border which has been my thinking. Apparently, new run is still off the Texas coast, but now it shows a bend east late, further east than thought into SW La at least. I think that is very feasible.

[hohnywx]

NAM 12z's are running and are now completed. Here are the run downs:

3km (only goes out to 60 hours) still taking it into Cat 4 or Cat 5 territory with a hit on South Padre Island. No end game because it only goes out 2 1/2 days. I like the track well enough on this but clearly not the intensity.

12km approaching the Golden Triangle without ever having landfilled in Texas at 969 and intensifying. Mostly a hair west of due north movement on this through 81 hours with a north fade and then a clip NE/ENE at the very end looking like a landfall eventually in Cameron or Vermilion Parish Louisiana.

32km does about the same thing (now out to 84 hours) with a decidedly eastern component at the end. This looks like it would landfall in SW LA but probably somewhere between Lafayette and Houma (Vermillion and Terrebonne Bays). But you can't be sure it doesn't hug the coast and go in farther east because it only goes out to 84 hours. No landfall on this run either. 965mb at the end of run so making a push for Higher end Cat 2 and still looking like a beast.

The 12z 12km NAM scares the crap out of me keeping it offshore and pointing towards LA as a strong cane. Several EURO ensembles show this possibility as well.

I know it's easier to say from outside of the crosshairs, but I would not let the NAM worry you all too much. It is a terrible tropical forecasting model. If other models start trending that way, then I would start to take it more seriously.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS running

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

1mb stronger and a tad SW of last run.

[Steve]

NAM 12z's are running and are now completed. Here are the run downs:

3km (only goes out to 60 hours) still taking it into Cat 4 or Cat 5 territory with a hit on South Padre Island. No end game because it only goes out 2 1/2 days. I like the track well enough on this but clearly not the intensity.

12km approaching the Golden Triangle without ever having landfilled in Texas at 969 and intensifying. Mostly a hair west of due north movement on this through 81 hours with a north fade and then a clip NE/ENE at the very end looking like a landfall eventually in Cameron or Vermilion Parish Louisiana.

32km does about the same thing (now out to 84 hours) with a decidedly eastern component at the end. This looks like it would landfall in SW LA but probably somewhere between Lafayette and Houma (Vermillion and Terrebonne Bays). But you can't be sure it doesn't hug the coast and go in farther east because it only goes out to 84 hours. No landfall on this run either. 965mb at the end of run so making a push for Higher end Cat 2 and still looking like a beast.

The 12z 12km NAM scares the crap out of me keeping it offshore and pointing towards LA as a strong cane. Several EURO ensembles show this possibility as well.

I know it's easier to say from outside of the crosshairs, but I would not let the NAM worry you all too much. It is a terrible tropical forecasting model. If other models start trending that way, then I would start to take it more seriously.

Agreed 100%, and I've been downplaying it the last 3 days because the system is too far south. It barely gets into range on the 3km (which southern range is 25N). I think the scary side of it for people is that it partially succeeded with Cindy which was the last storm in that area a month or two ago, and also because it has more or less been decent with the spin from Harvey and how it would react coming off the W/NW Yucatan and taking its time a little farther south to coalesce than what the big globals were doing - except 3km which is like someone dropped nitroglycerine into it. No way that happens, and I don't think anyone would disagree with that. GFS now running.

[tolakram]

Well west now.

[gatorcane]

GFS has definitely shifted west on the 12Z and looks weaker.

[tolakram]