ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Good news is that Nate has not strengthen much in the past 6 hrs or so. All global models remain to the west of the NHC track, and Nate better start heading almost due north to follow the NHC track this morning.

What do you make of those recon reports west of the center? Very odd. Not even any tropical storm-force wind west of the center?

Yes I saw that, and actually the models have been showing some sort of an an extended surface trough to the west of Nate, that's why the winds are all from the ESE across the north central gulf coast.

Check this out, I think that is the old circulation of the naked vorticity that passed to south of Key West just a few days ago.

[wxman57]

Almost assuredly will be at least a Cat 2 at landfall.

I'm not seeing that at all. Plane is finding Nate to be less organized than less evening. FL winds are lower, SFMR readings lower. And what's with the virtually no wind west of the center? That's very odd.

AF recon found 88 knots flight level winds a few minutes ago, that's about as high as they were last night. Also the SFMR are higher.

I see a few flagged SFMR winds 68-72kts (rain-contaminated) from the second plane.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

SE LA and MS better hope that the NHC's track is correct because all of the Global Models have Nate making at least a first landfall in SE LA. Look how far to the right the NHC track and TVCN are.

https://i.imgur.com/NMXqNoo.gif]

That green line (CMC) is WAY to close to my house... My backyard has been taking in water from the intercoastal since Thursday and with high tide, the front bayou has been spilling over the bank. And I'm in the the levee protection if you want to call it that lol

[Jelff]

Unless I am missing something NOAA seems to use "storm surge" and "innundation" as synonyms with respect to the data on the map I posted a few minutes ago. Here is a link to the metadata NOAA has posted on their GIS server for this data layer.

https://nowcoast.noaa.gov/arcgis/rest/s ... /MapServer

In part, this metadata says:

"The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map depicts the geographical areas where inundation from storm surge could occur along with the heights, above ground, that water could reach in those areas."

and

"The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map represents the storm surge heights that a person should prepare for before a storm, given the uncertainties in the meteorological forecast. The map shows a reasonable worst-case scenario (i.e., a reasonable upper bound) of the flooding of normally dry land at particular locations due to storm surge. There is approximately a 1-in-10 chance that storm surge flooding at any particular location could be higher than the values shown on the map. Roadways are included in the basemap layer for aiding in geographical referencing only. The map will not indicate which roadways may flood from fresh or salt water in a hurricane situation."

Going forward, anytime I post this data again I plan to include the above language in my post.

[NDG]

That was a big wobble to the NW that Nate did during the last couple of hours.

[tropicwatch]

That was a big wobble to the NW that Nate did during the last couple of hours.

Noticed that thinking maybe a relocation, next few center fixes should let us know if the further west motion will continue.

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5355&y=5304&z=3&im=6&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Chris_in_Tampa]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/916639970609324032

[NDG]

Vis sat pix and X where NOAA recon just fixed the COC for Nate.

[Big Easy Breeze]

Good news is that Nate has not strengthen much in the past 6 hrs or so. All global models remain to the west of the NHC track, and Nate better start heading almost due north to follow the NHC track this morning.

What do you make of those recon reports west of the center? Very odd. Not even any tropical storm-force wind west of the center?

Very strange, to say the least. But in no offense to any of the pro mets, here is what I say.

In a very strong tstorm, there may be some intense straight line winds; say 70 mph, or maybe even greater, that will catch people off guard. Or there could be an E1 tornado, with similar winds and can be seen by radar as a perfect radar reflection. Both can cause a lot of damage and a lot of grief to individuals in either's path. That said, I think just because a tropical system does not have the classic typical appearance from a scientific standpoint, does not lessen the relative potential damage and grief to people in harms way. A 85mph landfalling hurricane, regardless of how ugly, or typical it looks, is irrelevant, if you are one of the people/persons affected by same.

[GCANE]

Kermit's last drop north of CoC.
Intense low-level lapse rate.

[GCANE]

Awesome poleward outflow.
Towers are kicking out gravity waves in the cirrus.

[stormreader]

That was a big wobble to the NW that Nate did during the last couple of hours.

Noticed that thinking maybe a relocation, next few center fixes should let us know if the further west motion will continue.

Yes. And let's see if that Euro landfall forecast is not the correct one, over Grand Isle, and then N over New Orleans. It's not a classic looking storm, and we're not getting the RI thought previously, so Cat 3 looks out the window. But we're at 85 mph, still have the better part of a day over water, storm on the small size, I think there is a healthy chance we see a 100 mph storm at landfall along the N Gulf Coast.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Heading into center at about the same time from same direction.

Air Force at 700mb level. Through 7:28am CDT.
NOAA at 750mb level. Through 7:34am CDT.

Planes about on top of each other on this image.



Both planes ten minutes later:

[stormreader]

SE LA and MS better hope that the NHC's track is correct because all of the Global Models have Nate making at least a first landfall in SE LA. Look how far to the right the NHC track and TVCN are.

https://i.imgur.com/NMXqNoo.gif]

That green line (CMC) is WAY to close to my house... My backyard has been taking in water from the intercoastal since Thursday and with high tide, the front bayou has been spilling over the bank. And I'm in the the levee protection if you want to call it that lol

And you're not that far west of the Euro landfall point. I agree with you. West wobble, and it comes in almost over you.

[Javlin]

11S 10/06 11:30 PM 22.4N 86.3W 75MPH 988mb Nnw at 22 MPH H1 Nate 10/06 11:39 PM Berg/avila
11A 10/07 2:00 AM 23.5N 86.5W 80MPH 987mb Nnw at 22 MPH H1 Nate 10/07 1:40 AM Avila
12 10/07 5:00 AM 24.5N 87.0W 80MPH 987mb Nnw at 22 MPH H1 Nate 10/07 4:58 AM Avila
12A 10/07 8:00 AM 25.7N 88.0W 85MPH 986mb Nnw at 22 MPH H1 Nate 10/07 7:43 AM Beven

exactly what W wobble? Am I missing something?

I see it it's early extra .5 degree W.Have to see could be just a wobble.

[Dean4Storms]

Some kind of Bermuda Triangle VooDoo Hexed Monkey Shines taking place in the western quad or what?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force plane through 7:48am CDT. NOAA through 7:44am CDT.

[stormreader]

11S 10/06 11:30 PM 22.4N 86.3W 75MPH 988mb Nnw at 22 MPH H1 Nate 10/06 11:39 PM Berg/avila
11A 10/07 2:00 AM 23.5N 86.5W 80MPH 987mb Nnw at 22 MPH H1 Nate 10/07 1:40 AM Avila
12 10/07 5:00 AM 24.5N 87.0W 80MPH 987mb Nnw at 22 MPH H1 Nate 10/07 4:58 AM Avila
12A 10/07 8:00 AM 25.7N 88.0W 85MPH 986mb Nnw at 22 MPH H1 Nate 10/07 7:43 AM Beven

exactly what W wobble? Am I missing something?

I was talking about a possible wobble west at landfall. I think other posters are saying that there is still a strong W component in the current movement. Looking at your last two fixes. Shows a movement of 1.2 degrees N and exactly 1 degree W. So not much more N than W on those fixes.

[wxman57]

Two planes in the NW quadrant and neither is finding any TS wind. Buoy 83nm west of Nate's center has NE wind 10-15 kts. WTF? Center near 26N/88.1W, west of NHC's forecast.