ATL: HARVEY - Models

[ronjon]

Guidance has shifted east from the 00z suite. Many variables still in play but steering seems to collaspe in 96 hours or so. Most models now want to bring it 50-100 miles inland of the central or northeast Tx coast and meander a few days before moving SE than east than NE either inland in La or offshore west La. Intensity is a big wild card and unfortunately very poorly predicted by models.

[tolakram]

6Z GFS has a wider swath of heavy rain again, moving slower than the 0Z.

[terstorm1012]

3km nam will give people a triple heart attack

I just looked. It sure did!
How good is the NAM at intensity?

[SouthDadeFish]

3km nam will give people a triple heart attack

I just looked. It sure did!
How good is the NAM at intensity?

The NAM is definitely not a reliable tropical model. I can't keep track of how many times I have seen it intensifying a TC too much.

[SouthDadeFish]

The 00Z Euro ensembles are starting to come into better agreement on a TX landfall. Still uncertainty where and how long Harvey will hang around for.



Image from Dr. Brian Tang's page.

[tolakram]

Bastardi changed his track to just offshore, cat 2, then moving up coast as a 1 strengthening to a 2 again and coming onshore at TX/LA border.

Reminder, JoeB is not a model, he's a body builder. Thankyou.

[stormreader]

Bastardi changed his track to just offshore, cat 2, then moving up coast as a 1 strengthening to a 2 again and coming onshore at TX/LA border.

Reminder, JoeB is not a model, he's a body builder. Thankyou.

Like this particular forecast, though!

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Not saying this system will but we have all seen how a storm can rapidly and unexpectedly strengthen to a absolute beast in very short time.Ie (Patricia)

[tolakram]

Bastardi changed his track to just offshore, cat 2, then moving up coast as a 1 strengthening to a 2 again and coming onshore at TX/LA border.

Reminder, JoeB is not a model, he's a body builder. Thankyou.

Like this particular forecast, though!

He's already changed the forecast in one day, tends to follow a single model too much IMO.

Tweet included Euro rainfall estimates so putting here.
 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/900307195899899904

[WAcyclone]

Below is a graphic showing the track and surface windspeeds for Harvey predicted by the 00z ECMWF...



Source: windy.com

[sphelps8681]

Bastardi changed his track to just offshore, cat 2, then moving up coast as a 1 strengthening to a 2 again and coming onshore at TX/LA border.

Reminder, JoeB is not a model, he's a body builder. Thankyou.

Like this particular forecast, though!

He's already changed the forecast in one day, tends to follow a single model too much IMO.

Tweet included Euro rainfall estimates so putting here.
[tw eet]https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/900307195899899904[/tweet]

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/0CcFuku.png[/img]

That 20+ inches of rain is the triangle area. Sabine pass is just south of there.

[weatherguy425]

Bastardi changed his track to just offshore, cat 2, then moving up coast as a 1 strengthening to a 2 again and coming onshore at TX/LA border.

Reminder, JoeB is not a model, he's a body builder. Thankyou.

Like this particular forecast, though!

He's already changed the forecast in one day, tends to follow a single model too much IMO.

Tweet included Euro rainfall estimates so putting here.
[tw eet]https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/900307195899899904[/tweet]

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/0CcFuku.png[/img]

Not that it matters a lot in the grand scheme of things, but where are you seeing, reading that his thinking has changed?

[stormreader]

Bastardi changed his track to just offshore, cat 2, then moving up coast as a 1 strengthening to a 2 again and coming onshore at TX/LA border.

Reminder, JoeB is not a model, he's a body builder. Thankyou.

Like this particular forecast, though!

He's already changed the forecast in one day, tends to follow a single model too much IMO.

Tweet included Euro rainfall estimates so putting here.
[tw eet]https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/900307195899899904[/tweet]

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/0CcFuku.png[/img]

Understood.

[tolakram]

Not that it matters a lot in the grand scheme of things, but where are you seeing, reading that his thinking has changed?

He did not indicate why he changed tracks. Further discussion should really go in the discussion thread, I should have posted it over there. From a model perspective, the blend of models is always the best technique, no single model ever gets it perfect. Depending on past performance one might give the euro more weight than the GFS which gets more weight than the CMC etc. Other things count as well, like how well one thinks a model is handling the upper air environment. The NHC does this quite well so their first track at the 10AM CDT update will be telling.

[FireRat]

Just saw the latest NAM talked about in the tropical tidbits, wow that is unreal. Good thing this is an outlier and not the best intensity model haha...
Cat 5 Landfall in South Texas late on 8/25, Holy S*** Batman!

[weatherguy425]

Not that it matters a lot in the grand scheme of things, but where are you seeing, reading that his thinking has changed?

He did not indicate why he changed tracks. Further discussion should really go in the discussion thread, I should have posted it over there. From a model perspective, the blend of models is always the best technique, no single model ever gets it perfect. Depending on past performance one might give the euro more weight than the GFS which gets more weight than the CMC etc. Other things count as well, like how well one thinks a model is handling the upper air environment. The NHC does this quite well so their first track at the 10AM CDT update will be telling.

I must clarify. I am not asking why he changed it. You said it was changed. I see no significant change from his previous discussion. He is a very sound meteorologist with a history in the energy industry.

[Portastorm]

Hmmm ... 12z guidance shows models shifting SW again. Looking forward to seeing NHC's thoughts at 10.

[tolakram]

I must clarify. I am not asking why he changed it. You said it was changed. I see no significant change from his previous discussion. He is a very sound meteorologist with a history in the energy industry.

I'm watching his WeatherBell members only video where he changed track from his last twitter post. Unfortunately he has not tweeted his latest track so I can't post it here.

[OntarioEggplant]

Hmmm ... 12z guidance shows models shifting SW again. Looking forward to seeing NHC's thoughts at 10.

I imagine the models will wobble a bit more before settling on a central location.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Hmmm ... 12z guidance shows models shifting SW again. Looking forward to seeing NHC's thoughts at 10.

I actually expected this because the center was found on the south west side of the convection I really think landfall anywhere between South Padre island and Matagorda Bay then after that who knows