ATL: HARVEY - Models

[hd44]

Eps shifts east and now is much further east than the past few runs and still bring it over the Gulf. This could be a decent hurricane if the east trends persist. More water room = higher risk for something beyond a c1 storm.

[Alyono]

3km nam will give people a triple heart attack

[hd44]

3km nam will give people a triple heart attack

897 mb. That is not good... but is possible if it can become organized overnight and it is. That is really bad .

[hd44]

Everyone knows Gulf storms can blow up fast i.e (katrina,opal,camille) ... we just have been spared recently. Will luck run out?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

shore huger strong cane

29th storm.T 144HR
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/char ... al_america

[Sciencerocks]

06z gfs is about 50-60 miles west of the 00z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=228

same position at 30 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2306&fh=30

Same position at 36 hours

[Sciencerocks]

48 hours probably 30-40 miles southwest of 00z...Slightly weaker by 2mbs.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2306&fh=48

20 miles west at 06z of the 00z at 54 hours and 2 mb weaker https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=210

[KWT]

3km nam will give people a triple heart attack

That maybe one of the more crazy runs I've ever seen from any model! Goes into crazy territory by 36hrs out and bombs it probably at one of the fastest rates ever recorded. Fair to say its an outlier at the momet!

[stormreader]

0z UKMET track would skirt the Texas coast and come ashore on Texas side of TX/LA border.

Been saying this all along. UK track seems most reasonable. Never bought into the penetration of coast (which mainline models produced earlier). Those models still have landfalls along the central Texas coast, but they don't go near as far inland (now further east). UK and Nam have kept this offshore until landfall very near the Tex-La border. Think with frictional effects and the natural bend to the NE of the coast that the storm won't make a landfall until very near the Tex-La border. Been saying Galveston-Port Arthur or Sabine Pass area. Really looking more like Sabine Pass.

[Sciencerocks]

60 hours about to make landfall 20 miles west-southwest of the 00z position. 4 mbs weaker.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2306&fh=60

66 hours about 20-30 miles southwest of the 00z...8mb weaker
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2306&fh=66

72 hours probably 30-35 miles southwest of the 00z..7mb weaker. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2306&fh=72

[stormreader]

3km nam will give people a triple heart attack

That maybe one of the more crazy runs I've ever seen from any model! Goes into crazy territory by 36hrs out and bombs it probably at one of the fastest rates ever recorded. Fair to say its an outlier at the momet!

Yeah, but I'm paying much more attention to its course, not intensity. Always take that with a grain of salt anyway with these models. In any case, if the storm does stay offshore until a landfall around Tex-La it should be pretty potent.

[stormreader]

00z Euro hour 72-144

I really think the Euro is not far now from coming into line with the UK and keeping this storm in the coastal waters until late in the forecasting period with landfall around the Port Arthur-Sabine Pass area.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS through 120 hours:

[ROCK]

Didn't I read some where afte the eclipse there would be like major apocalyptic events? Euro is off charts and that NAM for all that is holy is unbelievable. Glad the NAM doesn't do intensity.

[txag2005]

Didn't I read some where afte the eclipse there would be like major apocalyptic events? Euro is off charts and that NAM for all that is holy is unbelievable. Glad the NAM doesn't do intensity.

How big are the models predicting this storm gets? Are we talking cat 3+?

That would nuts given that there is barely any talk about this system and we are a couple days away from landfall.

[ROCK]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/pls/portal/ ... RM_DISPLAY

[tolakram]

Weatherbell - Euro at 995mb first landfall, 977mb second landfall. Storm goes inland in Texas and weakens to 1000mb and then turns around and heads back to the coast AND strengthens to 994mb. Not sure what to think of that.

[tolakram]

ROCK posted link above

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

0Z Euro run