ATL: HARVEY - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017082218/gfs_apcpn_scus_29.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_29.png

Figured it out. Forgot how to post pics there for a moment lol

Sure It's possible that it could be less rain for East Texas. But the flip side is perhaps more flooding rain for Louisiana. Either way this is a potentially horrible situation.

[AxaltaRacing24]

TBH after some of the 00Z models came out with Gonzo's data, this hasn't been looking too good for Louisiana and Texas. If you are in the path of this storm it's time to prepare.

[MississippiWx]

0z UKMET track would skirt the Texas coast and come ashore on Texas side of TX/LA border.

[msp]

HMON shifts north some, now landfalls at corpus christi at 978mb

[Steve]

Who has the FIM, Super Ensemble and NASA runs?:hat-tip:

[Blinhart]

And it's track. Has it heading towards Louisiana without a landfall in Texas at the end of the run. Only model to show that.

Not the 3km. It looks like TX, but 920s. Almost a 0% chance.

Yeah Steve, the 3km track seems more reasonable. The intensity is probably way off.

I hope the intensity is off, because if it does do that, no one around here in South Louisiana is ready for a Cat 4 or 5 to make landfall. Hell we aren't even preparing for anything more than a whole lot of rain, so anything stronger than a Cat 1 will cause a lot of damage and loss of life.

[Steve]

Track would have gone to Texas though.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Not the 3km. It looks like TX, but 920s. Almost a 0% chance.

Yeah Steve, the 3km track seems more reasonable. The intensity is probably way off.

I hope the intensity is off, because if it does do that, no one around here in South Louisiana is ready for a Cat 4 or 5 to make landfall. Hell we aren't even preparing for anything more than a whole lot of rain, so anything stronger than a Cat 1 will cause a lot of damage and loss of life.

The 3KM shows landfall near south padre island or Corpus christu it's hard to tell but it's definitely a category 5 in that model

[msp]

HWRF is coming in stronger and farther north, 969mb and looks to landfall around port aransas

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

HWRF is coming in stronger and farther north, 969mb and looks to landfall around port aransas

Most models stayed where theyou were before the data HWRF coming in a tad North and HMON coming in a tad N at corpus but the 0Z models show Harvey becoming much stronger

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Who has the FIM, Super Ensemble and NASA runs?:hat-tip:

They use to be on this page, you need to sift.
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com.au ... -page.html

[southerngale]

Who has the FIM, Super Ensemble and NASA runs?:hat-tip:

Check here.
http://www.wxman57.com/hurricane.html

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=177


Navy

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_wx.cgi

[Alyono]

NAVGEM still on the TX coast a week from now...

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro Initialized:

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro coming in with a tighter and more compact core:

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hour 24:

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hour 48:

[Steve]

Looks to be on a northerly trajectory somewhat (NW/NNW?) between 24 and 48 but this doesn't look like it's going to get apocalyptic.