ATL: JOSE - Models

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#181 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:11 pm

Can someone do comparrison of the 00z Euro with 12z ? Im on my phone
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#182 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:15 pm

96 hrs
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#183 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:17 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Can someone do comparrison of the 00z Euro with 12z ? Im on my phone

Image
Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#184 Postby lando » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:22 pm

Looks like euro almost dissipates it and doesn't agree with ukm
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#185 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:23 pm

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#186 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:28 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


How can it be so weak at that time point compared to the GFS?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#187 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:30 pm

Looks like mid atlantic this run for Euro
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#188 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:31 pm

144 hrs
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#189 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:34 pm

I really don't think this will make landfall too far south, since the ridge looks fairly weaker than it was with Irma, possibly an Irene style track is possible
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#190 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:36 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:144 hrs
Image

Euro is trending west, have to see what the ensembles say
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#191 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:37 pm

Still out to sea but def farther west
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#192 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:38 pm

Image

12z HWRF ends the run almost right on top of the NW Bahamas as a major hurricane so the UKMET is not entirely alone with the far west solution.


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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#193 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:39 pm

It was west by a decent amount this run. Just food for thought.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#194 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:47 pm

Almost every model shifting significantly west toward a U.S landfall, not good. Please come back force field.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#195 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:48 pm

Euro has come west quite a bit in the last two runs. Starting to look like one to watch for the Bahamas, East Coast, and Canada.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#196 Postby bqknight » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:51 pm

Anyone have the 12z GFS ensembles?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#197 Postby millerm277 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:01 pm

bqknight wrote:Anyone have the 12z GFS ensembles?


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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#198 Postby OntarioEggplant » Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:02 pm

bqknight wrote:Anyone have the 12z GFS ensembles?


Closer to Florida, but still not quite there yet
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#199 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:08 pm

Damn, Levi has to put up that disclaimer on those ensemble runs...
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#200 Postby stormreader » Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:09 pm

millerm277 wrote:
bqknight wrote:Anyone have the 12z GFS ensembles?


Image


All of that is getting too close for comfort. Of course the thing to look for in the next few runs will be how far south the models take this. The farther south, the more danger down the line. On the bright side, there's still no telling.
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