ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

witch one will be td first 92l or 91l? look could be 92l

[Hurricaneman]

witch one will be td first 92l or 91l? look could be 92l

I think it's possible that all 3 could hit the US so they all need to be watched

[Sanibel]

(doh) I was looking at 92L thinking I was looking at 91L.


Too early for any predictions and I would see if 92 consumes 91 before anything...

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:


Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located more than a thousand miles east of the
Lesser Antilles remains disorganized. This system is expected to
move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean,
crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Some slow development
of this system is possible before it moves into the Caribbean Sea,
where environmental conditions are expected to be less conducive
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Alyono]

far too much SAL for any persistent convection to form

[ROCK]

eh yeah too much SAL right now...its the Carib where it needs to be watched. 12Z NAVGEM liked it and didn't bury it into CA. just saying

[Kingarabian]

eh yeah too much SAL right now...its the Carib where it needs to be watched. 12Z NAVGEM liked it and didn't bury it into CA. just saying

Rule #1 when it comes to the models: When the king NAVGEM speaks, you listen!

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2017081600, , BEST, 0, 140N, 445W, 25, 1011, DB

[MGC]

I doubt 91L does much in the coming days. Too much dry air in the short term and then shear near the islands. Maybe if enough of it holds together it can do something in the WCarb......MGC

[CyclonicFury]

Doubt we will see this one develop before the Islands but the 00z models shifted significantly north and most now don't bury it into Central America. We will have to watch it when it gets to the Northwestern Caribbean. If shear is low, we'd likely see it develop there. Models didn't really pick up on Franklin that much until it got into the Caribbean (aside from the Euro which had been consistently showing a weak low in the BoC).

[chaser1]

Wait?? No one else found the 8:00pm TWO for 91L, just a little contradictory????
20% within 48 hours, increased to 40% up to 5 days

"......Some slow development
of this system is possible before it moves into the Caribbean Sea, where environmental conditions are expected to be less conducive..."

Why did "less conducive" become a rationale to RAISE chances of development, to 40% ¿

[chaser1]

In fact, the same contradiction in the 8:00p.m TWO - forecast, was made for 92L as well. Only the wave to soon emerge off the African coast, seem to have % chances of development that matched the discussion for latter term chances for development.

[Alyono]

Wait?? No one else found the 8:00pm TWO for 91L, just a little contradictory????
20% within 48 hours, increased to 40% up to 5 days

"......Some slow development
of this system is possible before it moves into the Caribbean Sea, where environmental conditions are expected to be less conducive..."

Why did "less conducive" become a rationale to RAISE chances of development, to 40% ¿

because it is forecast to move into the Caribbean in about 72 hours

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I spent some time reading over the NHC discussions and looking at shear maps as well as global model forecasts, not for 91 itself, but more so for conditions around it. I can see why they mention conditions becoming less favorable after 5 days. The shear in the central and east Caribbean does look to be strong at the time 91L reaches the Caribbean, due to the shear along and southeast of the semi-permanent TUTT feature draped across the Eastern Caribbean. I do think 91L might have a slight chance of development in the western Caribbean if shear stays where it currently is there. In the short term, SAL is also keeping 91L from causing too much trouble, which is good news for the islands. So all in all, 91L should stay an invest until at least the Western Caribbean, where it will be sort of a wait and see situation IMO. With all that said, I do think it is important to keep checking back on 91L just in case it does something surprising. I don't anticipate that happening at this time however.

[StormTracker]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5
Both look decent on MIMIC right now! Twins!

[Aric Dunn]

night time visible ( microphysics imagery ) is pretty revealing. there is pretty well defined circ with intermittent convection building near it. its has a pretty good shot to become a TC in the next 24 to 36 hours.

[otowntiger]

I spent some time reading over the NHC discussions and looking at shear maps as well as global model forecasts, not for 91 itself, but more so for conditions around it. I can see why they mention conditions becoming less favorable after 5 days. The shear in the central and east Caribbean does look to be strong at the time 91L reaches the Caribbean, due to the shear along and southeast of the semi-permanent TUTT feature draped across the Eastern Caribbean. I do think 91L might have a slight chance of development in the western Caribbean if shear stays where it currently is there. In the short term, SAL is also keeping 91L from causing too much trouble, which is good news for the islands. So all in all, 91L should stay an invest until at least the Western Caribbean, where it will be sort of a wait and see situation IMO. With all that said, I do think it is important to keep checking back on 91L just in case it does something surprising. I don't anticipate that happening at this time however.

. Lol- we usually don't anticipate being surprised! . In all seriousness thanks for the in depth analysis. I do think all of these systems bear watching like you say if for no other reason but climatological history. The models do seem to be struggling some this season so far and over all conditions in the Atlantic have been more hostile than expected but it doesnt mean hurricanes won't come.

[stormreader]

witch one will be td first 92l or 91l? look could be 92l

Will say this. Compared to the last couple of days, 91l looks much better than before. Used to think that 92l was more likely to organize first, not so sure now. This morning's visible pic.

[CyclonicFury]

witch one will be td first 92l or 91l? look could be 92l

Will say this. Compared to the last couple of days, 91l looks much better than before. Used to think that 92l was more likely to organize first, not so sure now. This morning's visible pic.

You can clearly see a developing LLC with 91L with some cyclonic turning on that loop. If 91L can develop some persistent convection it could close off before the Antilles. It may strengthen more in the Caribbean than expected if it develops before the Islands.

[tolakram]

The invests, from SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17444&y=9124&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider