ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

E of Atlantic City, NJ at 300 hours, headed towards Cape Cod

Who knows but if the trend continues on the GFS the southeast US may need to be vigilant about 99L and check your supplies even if it doesn't come

[Blown Away]

18z much faster than 12z through @204 hours, but slower movement than 12z after that.

[Hurricaneman]

18z much faster than 12z through @204 hours, but slower movement than 12z after that.

Collapsed steering currents I would think

[cycloneye]

I guess if what GFS shows,this thread can be among the most posts for a Invest/TD/TS/Hurricane ever in S2K .But is early to say for sure if that happens but regardless it will have plenty of posts.

[northjaxpro]

Well if you believe firmly what is being shown with the EUROwith the ridge being depicted as quite strong during the next week to 10 days indeed this system maybe a real threat to the Southeast U.S. However, if that trough comes down in the GFS is accurate in their depiction of the ridge breaking down quicker, then the entire East Coast would possibly be under the gun. So many variables. It is all about timing of course with these features. We have a lot of time to watch it unfold, but it's going to be a very interesting next week or so watching 99L and also 90L evoking down in the Western Caribbean and eventually into Bay of Campeche area in the coming days.

[RL3AO]

18z much faster than 12z through @204 hours, but slower movement than 12z after that.

Collapsed steering currents I would think

Absurdly large change in pattern over Canada. Went from massive cutoff low to massive blocking ridge in one run.

[SouthFLTropics]

At 240 hours plus that was a pretty close call but mainly good for the entertainment value. The things to watch for on future runs will be the evolution of the ULL in the Bahamas as well as the shortwave across the Midwest. As always, timing is everything. If that shortwave is just 12 hours late this thing makes landfall in Florida and rides north. Anyone from Florida to Nova Scotia is in play at this time. More importantly, everyone in the islands needs to pay close attention. The effects on the islands will come much sooner. I'm not sold yet that this gets above the Leewards and the Antilles without making an impact.

[northjaxpro]

At 240 hours plus that was a pretty close call but mainly good for the entertainment value. The things to watch for on future runs will be the evolution of the ULL in the Bahamas as well as the shortwave across the Midwest. As always, timing is everything. If that shortwave is just 12 hours late this thing makes landfall in Florida and rides north. Anyone from Florida to Nova Scotia is in play at this time. More importantly, everyone in the islands needs to pay close attention. The effects on the islands will come much sooner. I'm not sold yet that this gets above the Leewards and the Antilles without making an impact.

Spot on analysis!

[northjaxpro]

I guess if what GFS shows,this thread can be among the most posts for a Invest/TD/TS/Hurricane ever in S2K .But is early to say for sure if that happens but regardless it will have plenty of posts.

Yeah, barring any sudden deterioration of this system, which seems very unlikely at this point, you are likely correct that this thread will have many pages and posts before all is said and done for sure!

[RL3AO]

I guess if what GFS shows,this thread can be among the most posts for a Invest/TD/TS/Hurricane ever in S2K .But is early to say for sure if that happens but regardless it will have plenty of posts.

It seems the model threads get a higher percentage of posts compared to 7 or 8 years ago on here. So a lot of posts, but split between two threads.

[northjaxpro]

Although it won''t get as many posts as this one, the 90L thread will certainly not be shabby at all, especially if it poses a real threat to the TX coast or becomes any possible threat to the Upper NW Gulf Coast region.

[sma10]

So where are the models now with our nice little Cabo Verde wave?

Well, in 10 days we might have a cat 4 in the NW Bahamas, readying to tear up the East Coast (GFS); or a couple of breezy showers in Belize (Euro)

Seems like old times.

[Kingarabian]

I'm going to go with Hermine 2016 pre genesis for now and side with the Euro. The amount of dry air is lessening as we swing into August, but dry air is still evident and this season, storms have really struggled from dry air in the MDR. I think it'll stay weak until it's not too far from the lesser Antilles where if conditions permit it'll be a whole new ball game. Just hard to predict conditions even a couple of days out, as 99L is still a week or so from threatening any land areas.

[Hurricaneman]

This seems to be organizing quickly and eithe tomorrow or Saturday this might be officially a tropical cyclone

[Siker]

HWRF and HMON are both much stronger than their previous runs; <980mb by 72 hours.

[Kingarabian]

This seems to be organizing quickly and eithe tomorrow or Saturday this might be officially a tropical cyclone

Let's see how it holds up through the diurnal cycles first.

[tigerz3030]

Welcome back everyone!!

Can someone post these updated models since this IS the model thread please?

[MetroMike]

Would not bother about intensity trends at this point. I'm looking at the trajectory trend. Models do better with that.

[cycloneye]

40%-80%

A large and complex area of disturbed weather, associated with a
broad low pressure system, extends from about 400 miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands to about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual consolidation and development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week over the eastern or
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move
toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[northjaxpro]

Tigerz3030 makes a great point folks. If it is possible or feasible for you to post the images of the models you are discussing, please by all means post them. This is the models thread after all.

Now, I am aware there have been issues with posting a few model images on this site in the past with copyright infringement etc.. That is.unless there have been changes to this If so, maybe the mods can elaborate more on this matter.