ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Javlin]

I'm not seeing anything except some sort of MLC and a broad circulation near the coast.

http://i.imgur.com/jPcQRCX.gif

My thoughts also might be the lowest pressure area ATTM but feel the area to the E wins out?

[jasons2k]

Still very disorganized, but these things require time and patience. I think the GFS will eventually cave.

[1900hurricane]

Differences start out early between the GEFS and EPS guidance suites. The result of the next 36 hours could go a long way in determining which camp is correct.
 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/876237607587516417

[boca]

Thanks

[Ivanhater]

[Steve]

While there is manual input, QPF is still primarily driven by numerical data from the GFS. So if the GFS says eastern gulf, it's gonna be the hotspot for the water with some human tweaking.

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center just Updated their Day 3 to 7 Surface Charts at 1420Z. As we can see as of this Update, the current thinking is there may be a potential issue for the Middle/Upper Texas and SW Louisiana Coastal Areas and on to the East. While it is too soon to know the exact impacts to our sensible weather, due to the broad area of low pressure the main threat could be heavy rainfall and elevated tides versus a wind and surge threat. That said this remains a very complex and complicated forecasting challenge, so expect changes over the next couple of days.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

All depending on the trough. Euro has a 588 isobar bear the Tenn/Ala stateline. On the GFS, the trough is deeper and the same area has a 585 dm isobar. Time will tell. Looks like a true rain make so thats good.

[wxman57]

EC and UKMET are all-in for Texas. GFS and Canadian say north to Florida. I'm sticking with the Euro, which weakens the trof over the NW Gulf quickly tomorrow/Tuesday, unlike the GFS with the stronger trof. Euro has out-performed the GFS with such features in recent months. However, I wouldn't turn my back on it if I lived on the coast of Alabama or Florida
.

[MetroMike]

Still very disorganized, but these things require time and patience. I think the GFS will eventually cave.

What do you mean the GFS will cave? To what?

[Steve]

Oh and NAM is headed for the Upper Texas or Central TX Coast at 84 hours. Looks like landfall will be Thursday if the NAM is right.

[psyclone]

While there is manual input, QPF is still primarily driven by numerical data from the GFS. So if the GFS says eastern gulf, it's gonna be the hotspot for the water with some human tweaking.

I thought it was noteworthy since the previous depiction showed heavier rain farther south. these 7 day estimates do lurch around a good bit so I don't get too hung up on one forecast...but rather just try to smooth out the bumps and look for trends. I definitely give greater deference to the Euro since it just seems to be a bit better overall.

[stormhunter7]

Still think GFS is developing a piece off on 93L. I think 93L will move into BOC. Question is will a new area form in southern gom or near cuba and run north?

[Calin1171]

Track forecasts put the whole gulf coast on watch, but what about intensity? Couldn't find model support for anything under 1000 mb, unless I missed something?

[jasons2k]

Still very disorganized, but these things require time and patience. I think the GFS will eventually cave.

What do you mean the GFS will cave? To what?

I think it will eventually drop the Eastern GOM solution with the trough weakening.

[tropicwatch]

I am not convinced on the dissipation of the ull. The past couple of weeks in the Panhandle they have hung together quite well. They also haven't been able to push through eastward.

[Steve]

Track forecasts put the whole gulf coast on watch, but what about intensity? Couldn't find model support for anything under 1000 mb, unless I missed something?

Yeah. There are some 990s out there, but remember these global resolutions don't show true pressure. They nearly always show higher pressure than actual.

[Steve]

While there is manual input, QPF is still primarily driven by numerical data from the GFS. So if the GFS says eastern gulf, it's gonna be the hotspot for the water with some human tweaking.

I thought it was noteworthy since the previous depiction showed heavier rain farther south. these 7 day estimates do lurch around a good bit so I don't get too hung up on one forecast...but rather just try to smooth out the bumps and look for trends. I definitely give greater deference to the Euro since it just seems to be a bit better overall.

I definitely agree 100% with you. It's being smoothed out by man (e.g. a smoothed out as we go forecast tracks from the NHC) though, so I think even though GFS rainfall would be concentrated farther east if its track is right, they are hedging a little farther my way with the output.

[caneman]

I don't know that either model has done great. The Euro has been in the East Pac., Mexico, points North and varied between some development and none. Well see who wins in the end but there's been a a lot of flip flopping from the euro already.

[weathaguyry]

In the last couple of frames, could that be something trying to curl up in the center of the convection? If so, it will be very interesting to see what recon finds later today, fingers crossed that they do go out!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/flash-vis-long.html