ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[bob rulz]

Is no one else considering the likelihood of a cat 3 (or 4) in the gulf? Its current structure looks mighty impressive, a brief RI phase would easily bump this to a 100kt hurricane IMO. I know all hurricanes are dangerous, be it a Cat1 or 5, but people out there might let their guard down a bit because they're only preparing for a minimak hurricane..

There have been several posts indicating people think a category 3 is possible.

A category 4 is unlikely simply because of time but would be foolish to 100% rule it out.

[AutoPenalti]

Ok, I have to vent here for a second. Some random guy's joint pains in Orlando serve literally no purpose in the discussion thread of an imminent landfalling Hurricane. Also, Alyono, I am extraordinarily curious as to why you feel New Orleans will see more significant impact than the panhandle of Florida.

Okey Dokey.

[Airboy]

I'm correct that a fast moving hurricane cause more storm surge than a slow moving one, everything else being the same, or?
It's really moving fast from the north of Yucutan to the US coast, around 24 hours if it keep it up.

[NDG]

SE LA and MS better hope that the NHC's track is correct because all of the Global Models have Nate making at least a first landfall in SE LA. Look how far to the right the NHC track and TVCN are.

[Alyono]

Ok, I have to vent here for a second. Some random guy's joint pains in Orlando serve literally no purpose in the discussion thread of an imminent landfalling Hurricane. Also, Alyono, I am extraordinarily curious as to why you feel New Orleans will see more significant impact than the panhandle of Florida.

because there is little evidence indicating a landfall on the Panhandle. It's not making landfall where you live. That is unlikely

Great. Never implied that. The fact of the matter is that the strongest winds are well east of the CoC and in all likelihood, will be at the time of LF. An AL/MS line landfall with a storm moving NE at that point spells way more impact for the FL panhandle than the New Orleans metro.

The risk is greater for New Orleans as it may yet make a direct hit there

[FLpanhandle91]

because there is little evidence indicating a landfall on the Panhandle. It's not making landfall where you live. That is unlikely

Great. Never implied that. The fact of the matter is that the strongest winds are well east of the CoC and in all likelihood, will be at the time of LF. An AL/MS line landfall with a storm moving NE at that point spells way more impact for the FL panhandle than the New Orleans metro.

The risk is greater for New Orleans as it may yet make a direct hit there

I assume it is an infrastructure risk vs the actual effects of the storm itself.

[bella_may]

Wouldn't surprise me if they shifted it slightly west in the morning

[FLpanhandle91]

Ok, I have to vent here for a second. Some random guy's joint pains in Orlando serve literally no purpose in the discussion thread of an imminent landfalling Hurricane. Also, Alyono, I am extraordinarily curious as to why you feel New Orleans will see more significant impact than the panhandle of Florida.

Okey Dokey.

You agree that joint pains are an accurate reflection of potential impacts of a hurricane?

[bamajammer4eva]

because there is little evidence indicating a landfall on the Panhandle. It's not making landfall where you live. That is unlikely

Great. Never implied that. The fact of the matter is that the strongest winds are well east of the CoC and in all likelihood, will be at the time of LF. An AL/MS line landfall with a storm moving NE at that point spells way more impact for the FL panhandle than the New Orleans metro.

The risk is greater for New Orleans as it may yet make a direct hit there

I for my own area hope you are right and it goes way west of Al/Fl Panhandle. So since this storm is so lopsided and the weather is supposed to be to the east you are thinking it will go even West of NOLA for them to get the worst impacts?

[Alyono]

Great. Never implied that. The fact of the matter is that the strongest winds are well east of the CoC and in all likelihood, will be at the time of LF. An AL/MS line landfall with a storm moving NE at that point spells way more impact for the FL panhandle than the New Orleans metro.

The risk is greater for New Orleans as it may yet make a direct hit there

I assume it is an infrastructure risk vs the actual effects of the storm itself.

no, it's the actual impacts from the storm. A reasonable outcome is a cat 2 into the center of New Orleans. Far more likely than a landfall in Florida

[Billyp542]

Great. Never implied that. The fact of the matter is that the strongest winds are well east of the CoC and in all likelihood, will be at the time of LF. An AL/MS line landfall with a storm moving NE at that point spells way more impact for the FL panhandle than the New Orleans metro.

The risk is greater for New Orleans as it may yet make a direct hit there

I assume it is an infrastructure risk vs the actual effects of the storm itself.

Why would it be more of an infrastructure risk, than the storm itself.

[NDG]

To make things worst, 06z SHIPS forecast chances for RI before landfall went up compared to previous run.

[bella_may]

It looks like convection is dying a little bit. Or am I seeing things?

[bamajammer4eva]

Has the NHC ever used the term "Booking" in an advisory before????

...HURRRICANE NATE BOOKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

[FLpanhandle91]

The risk is greater for New Orleans as it may yet make a direct hit there

I assume it is an infrastructure risk vs the actual effects of the storm itself.

no, it's the actual impacts from the storm. A reasonable outcome is a cat 2 into the center of New Orleans. Far more likely than a landfall in Florida

Disagree. Adamantly.

[FLpanhandle91]

The risk is greater for New Orleans as it may yet make a direct hit there

I assume it is an infrastructure risk vs the actual effects of the storm itself.

Why would it be more of an infrastructure risk, than the storm itself.

See: Katrina.

[Alyono]

Great. Never implied that. The fact of the matter is that the strongest winds are well east of the CoC and in all likelihood, will be at the time of LF. An AL/MS line landfall with a storm moving NE at that point spells way more impact for the FL panhandle than the New Orleans metro.

The risk is greater for New Orleans as it may yet make a direct hit there

I for my own area hope you are right and it goes way west of Al/Fl Panhandle. So since this storm is so lopsided and the weather is supposed to be to the east you are thinking it will go even West of NOLA for them to get the worst impacts?

I'm thinking SLIGHTLY east of New Orleans, maybe about 20-25 miles. That means a slight deviation to the west puts them in the worst of it

[poof121]

I assume it is an infrastructure risk vs the actual effects of the storm itself.

Why would it be more of an infrastructure risk, than the storm itself.

See: Katrina.

The walls failed due to storm surge into drainage canals. Since Katrina, the USACE installed gates where they meet Lake Ponchartrain that can be closed to keep the surge from backing up into the canals. Pumps however, different story. But that's a rainfall issue, not a surge issue.

[Alyono]

It looks like convection is dying a little bit. Or am I seeing things?

redeveloping with more banding. Looks to be slowly intensifying

[bamajammer4eva]

Why would it be more of an infrastructure risk, than the storm itself.

See: Katrina.

I don't think they are talking about this being a Katrina but that Katrina showed New Orleans major vulnerability as being in a Bowl and being surge/flood prone.