ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurrilurker]

Maria could drop 2 full categories and still be a disaster for PR + US VI. And she is showing no signs of doing that.

[SunnyThoughts]

175 mph. 909 mb. Twc just announced

[CrazyC83]

Now the marks to beat:

Dean and Mitch - 905 (tied)
Katrina - 902
Camille - 900
Allen - 899
Rita - 895
1935 Labor Day - 892
Gilbert - 888
Wilma - 882

Patricia - 872 (hemispheric record)

[EquusStorm]

Unbelievable. I see no way this avoids being Puerto Rico's most intense landfall ever at least by pressure. If it continues at this rate, sub-900 isn't entirely off the table, and even after being a bit numbed by Irma (and Maria's first landfall) that's just too scary to think much about.

[jdjaguar]

Maria could drop 2 full categories and still be a disaster for PR + US VI. And she is showing no signs of doing that.

On the contrary...she is strengthening

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF for tonight...

yeah thats crazy.. and not good..

200 kt at 850 would be about 160-170 kt at the surface.

not necessarily. if you have been following my posts. 850mb for intense hurricanes is what to look at. here..

updated recently. from 12z hwrf run I will update for this run shortly. but you can see the 850 mb winds verify with recon and offical. This has held true for irma and harvey.

pretty much once a system reaches hurricane intensity the likelihood of the 850mb hwrf winds being accurate is very high as those winds in intense hurricanes more often than not translate to the surface as you can see in the plot.

[johngaltfla]

I hate this storm.

Pray for those hit and in its path.

[CrazyC83]

Could this close off a CDG ring and head off into insanity in terms of intensity?

[sweetpea]

HWRF for tonight...

yeah thats crazy.. and not good..

200 kt at 850 would be about 160-170 kt at the surface.

Oh no, god I hope that doesn't verify. Destruction would be insane

[Alyono]

FYI... ERCs typically take between 12-24 hours to complete. This one is just starting. It may not complete before a potential Puerto Rico landfall, but it will be close. It's concerning to see the pressure continue to fall like this with a secondary eyewall forming. Nothing is slowing it down for now.

do you have any ideas as to why ewrcs have not been causing weakening this year? Harvey intensified through its replacement, as did Irma through its initial one.. I've never seen this before

Great question. I'm beginning to wonder if these really intense TCs have a unique version of ERCs that allows them to continue to intensify. Like something with the dynamics are different than the "typical" ERC. I also do not recall TCs intensifying like this while the secondary eyewall forms... This would be a fantastic research opportunity with the radar datasets from Irma and now Maria.

I am wondering if this is what happens in near zero shear environments. Storms like Floyd and Rita that underwent eyewall replacements and weakened also were undergoing about 15 kts of shear at the time. I almost wonder if the weakening is more shear related?

[ConvergenceZone]

While I feel very happy this isn't going to be hitting the US Mainland. I feel horrible about what will happen in the islands. Since this won't weaken until after the islands probably

[Zanthe]

If Maria makes landfall in Purto Rico at 909mb, it would be 5th strongest landfalling hurricane in the Atlantic. Irma is tied for 6th. If it goes below 905, it'd beat Dean (07) for #4.

[johngaltfla]

While I feel very happy this isn't going to be hitting the US Mainland. I feel horrible about what will happen in the islands. Since this won't weaken until after the islands probably

Don't bet on that. Please. If it starts trekking NW/NNW, the East Coast MAY have to watch this.

[SouthDadeFish]

do you have any ideas as to why ewrcs have not been causing weakening this year? Harvey intensified through its replacement, as did Irma through its initial one.. I've never seen this before

Great question. I'm beginning to wonder if these really intense TCs have a unique version of ERCs that allows them to continue to intensify. Like something with the dynamics are different than the "typical" ERC. I also do not recall TCs intensifying like this while the secondary eyewall forms... This would be a fantastic research opportunity with the radar datasets from Irma and now Maria.

I am wondering if this is what happens in near zero shear environments. Storms like Floyd and Rita that underwent eyewall replacements and weakened also were undergoing about 15 kts of shear at the time. I almost wonder if the weakening is more shear related?

I like your hypothesis. ERC could lower the inertial stability and allow shear/ventilation to have a greater effect. But if shear is essentially zero, there remains little to cause the pressure to increase.

[loro-rojo]

I think everyone is panicking now... this going to be really bad.

[northjaxpro]

My God I'm just sick to my stomach, gutwrenched right now for everyone in the path of this monster. It s just unbelievable this monster!! What a nightmare of a 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season.

God be with the people of Puerto Rico!!!!

[Ken711]

How wide is the eye in Maria as compared to Irma?

[CrazyC83]

If Maria makes landfall in Purto Rico at 909mb, it would be 5th strongest landfalling hurricane in the Atlantic. Irma is tied for 6th. If it goes below 905, it'd beat Dean (07) for #4.

In terms of most intense landfalls, I believe the record is:

* 1932 Labor Day (892)
* Gilbert (900)
* Camille (900) - tie
* Dean (905)
* 1924 Cuba (910)
* Janet (914)
* Irma (914) - tie
* 1932 Cuba (918)
* Katrina (920)
* Hattie (920) - tie

[sweetpea]

I think everyone is panicking now... this going to be really bad.

This is going to be bad, please stay safe. Saying prayers for everyone on the island.

[SouthDadeFish]

This is pretty wild for an Atlantic storm:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 SEP 2017 Time : 223040 UTC
Lat : 16:51:38 N Lon : 64:02:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 923.6mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +17.7C Cloud Region Temp : -75.3C

Scene Type : EYE