ATL: HARVEY - Models

[SoupBone]

0z Canadian is slightly southwest through 30 hours.

It has a very pronounced westward component to Harvey's motion over the next 24hrs

Yep which is similar to what the hurricane models show (HMON and HWRF).

Do they typically perform better than the globals this close to landfall?

[Steve]

Best thread in forever. The Canadian looks like it will strengthen Harvey way more than the GFS did. Let's see. There was only one model that stayed consistent with developing 91L all along (probably not a surprise to anyone but still).

[South Texas Storms]

It has a very pronounced westward component to Harvey's motion over the next 24hrs

Yep which is similar to what the hurricane models show (HMON and HWRF).

Do they typically perform better than the globals this close to landfall?

Depends on the storm. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Hard to say right now.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Canadian farther south and stronger by 5MB @60 Hrs

[Bhuggs]

Tons of rain plus even TS force winds equal trees going down. This run levels a lot of them in Houston

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hours 126-138 -- bouncing up and down:



Flooding everywhere

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour 144 -- on route to Florida:

[Cpv17]

[Steve]

Haha. The end.

[ColdMiser123]

CMC landfalls near Brownsville.

[tolakram]

Really ugly amount of rain, and Steve might remind us that the new GFS has been underestimating rainfall.

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS wide view after 150 Hrs

[msp]

Yeah that's a huge shift south on the cmc. Landfall just north of Brownsville

[South Texas Storms]

CMC landfalls near Brownsville.

The final landfall position will greatly depend on what track the system takes over the next 24 hours or so. More WNW = landfall in south Texas. More NNW = landfall near Houston.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Canadian with a landfall at the MX/TX border @78 Hrs

[Steve]

For sure. But I don't know if you can underestimate a foot and half or more of rain. I didn't look at QPF but I can't imagine it showing onshore more than a 7.3".

[ROCK]

Rainfall estimates are insane

[Cpv17]

Guys, the 18z had this still in south TX on Tuesday. This run has it 500 miles or so farther east. Way less flooding for SE TX this run. The rain is dispersed over a way bigger area on the 0z and is confined to a smaller area on the 18z making the flooding way worse in SE TX. I would post a pic, but it's not working.

[South Texas Storms]

Canadian has quite a bit more ridging along the northern Gulf coast compared to the 0z GFS. Hence the more southward track.

[bohaiboy]

Our local CBS weatherman showed a new model (mind you a single model) taking the storm to south of the MX border. They are still somewhat downplaying it here in H-Town, I think to prevent mass hysteria of what may be looming.