ATL: IRMA - Models

[txwatcher91]

It's probably fruitless to ask since I've been at this online since the mid 90s. It's been a long, long time since there was a threat of a major with a wide spread in possible landfalls. That inevitably leads to -removed- and model wars. Please consider that model x isn't better than model y because it's closer to you. There are long time posters that I'm not going to name who almost never miss the opportunity to wishcast based on the models that show a storm coming to them. Many of them would argue for the Clipper model if it showed it going near to them. Models hitting anything over 10 days out are rare. The GFS being one of them is rarer. Please consider that probably at least a few hundred people or more will read your post. For instance, if you are in Louisiana, try to consider why the North Carolina or Florida model may be right. Hundreds of people thank you in advance.

One of the best posts I've seen in this thread. Thank you.

Very wise words from Steve! Something I learned long ago when I first joined this site is to avoid letting how one “feels” decide how you interpret the model data. Instead, using things such as climo, the pattern tendencies, analogs, models, and what makes the most sense to determine where it could go.

[Bocadude85]

TVCN consensus shifts a little tiny bit more north.

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The majority of the 0z models have not ran yet however.

[AutoPenalti]

TVCN consensus shifts a little tiny bit more north.


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Definitely closer to the US.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'm trying to be as objective as possible here- and using my basic meteorology knowledge:

With Harvey and Cindy- EURO had them initially landfalling south of Texas, and the GFS and CMC had it going into FL beyond 5 days out (For Cindy). My point is- EURO may be overestimating the ridge, and the GFS underestimating it. They represent the "ends" of a broad cone. EURO to the SW over the GOM, and GFS to the NE into the NE. The most likely path, IMO, would be in between. While the EURO screams Florida, the in between seems to indicate N FL to the Carolinas, with a mean path over the Carolinas.

Obviously this is 10 days out so it will change a lot, but if you pinned me down and really asked what my guess was this far out- probably the Carolinas, with Isabel and Floyd being the best analogues. But please don't take this as gospel. It's an amateur guess. You can't trust models beyond 3 days. I'm still only taking basic meteorology classes so I have a long way to go in terms of forecasting skill. But this is a pattern I noticed with the models this year.

Disclaimer- it is too early to rule out any specific land area, so everyone should be prepared (if not already prepared before June 1st of this year) for hurricane season.

[Blown Away]

00z...

Euro seems to be the lone ranger with NE Caribbean/CONUS threat... Seems like all the guidance is maybe Bermuda only threat...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Re: re: model trends and current analysis.

looking over the last couple of pages, the posts are uncanny in how similar they are too
levi's video updates.

[txwatcher91]

I'm trying to be as objective as possible here- and using my basic meteorology knowledge:

With Harvey and Cindy- EURO had them initially landfalling south of Texas, and the GFS and CMC had it going into FL beyond 5 days out (For Cindy). My point is- EURO may be overestimating the ridge, and the GFS underestimating it. They represent the "ends" of a broad cone. EURO to the SW over the GOM, and GFS to the NE into the NE. The most likely path, IMO, would be in between. While the EURO screams Florida, the in between seems to indicate N FL to the Carolinas, with a mean path over the Carolinas.

Obviously this is 10 days out so it will change a lot, but if you pinned me down and really asked what my guess was this far out- probably the Carolinas, with Isabel and Floyd being the best analogues. But please don't take this as gospel. It's an amateur guess. You can't trust models beyond 3 days. I'm still only taking basic meteorology classes so I have a long way to go in terms of forecasting skill. But this is a pattern I noticed with the models this year.

I’ve noticed the same thing too and agree 100% with this. Also I’ve noticed the GEFS has been steadily shifting SW in the long range with most of them now affecting NC or points south. Floyd may prove to be a very close analog for this system.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm trying to be as objective as possible here- and using my basic meteorology knowledge:

With Harvey and Cindy- EURO had them initially landfalling south of Texas, and the GFS and CMC had it going into FL beyond 5 days out (For Cindy). My point is- EURO may be overestimating the ridge, and the GFS underestimating it. They represent the "ends" of a broad cone. EURO to the SW over the GOM, and GFS to the NE into the NE. The most likely path, IMO, would be in between. While the EURO screams Florida, the in between seems to indicate N FL to the Carolinas, with a mean path over the Carolinas.

Obviously this is 10 days out so it will change a lot, but if you pinned me down and really asked what my guess was this far out- probably the Carolinas, with Isabel and Floyd being the best analogues. But please don't take this as gospel. It's an amateur guess. You can't trust models beyond 3 days. I'm still only taking basic meteorology classes so I have a long way to go in terms of forecasting skill. But this is a pattern I noticed with the models this year.

I’ve noticed the same thing too and agree 100% with this. Also I’ve noticed the GEFS has been steadily shifting SW in the long range with most of them now affecting NC or points south. Floyd may prove to be a very close analog for this system.

Another analog could possibly be Frances 2004

[Dean4Storms]

[quote="AutoPenalti"][quote="WeatherEmperor"]

TVCN consensus shifts a little tiny bit more north.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

That would have to be the shortest wave length track like a rollercoaster I've ever seen a major hurricane do all while under a fairly strong ridge. Not buying it!

[SouthFLTropics]

00z...

Euro seems to be the lone ranger with NE Caribbean/CONUS threat... Seems like all the guidance is maybe Bermuda only threat...

I'm not sure where you are deducing that the threat may only be Bermuda. The ensembles aren't showing that at all.

[sma10]

It's probably fruitless to ask since I've been at this online since the mid 90s. It's been a long, long time since there was a threat of a major with a wide spread in possible landfalls. That inevitably leads to -removed- and model wars. Please consider that model x isn't better than model y because it's closer to you. There are long time posters that I'm not going to name who almost never miss the opportunity to wishcast based on the models that show a storm coming to them. Many of them would argue for the Clipper model if it showed it going near to them. Models hitting anything over 10 days out are rare. The GFS being one of them is rarer. Please consider that probably at least a few hundred people or more will read your post. For instance, if you are in Louisiana, try to consider why the North Carolina or Florida model may be right. Hundreds of people thank you in advance.

One of the best posts I've seen in this thread. Thank you.

Very wise words from Steve! Something I learned long ago when I first joined this site is to avoid letting how one “feels” decide how you interpret the model data. Instead, using things such as climo, the pattern tendencies, analogs, models, and what makes the most sense to determine where it could go.

I agree, a very wise post.
And just to add: there is a lot of chatter about how the models will eventually come together, Euro a little north and GFS a little south to finally get an agreement on track. This is likely to happen within a couple days or so. And that "compromise" track will also most likely end up being wrong in the end.

The beauty of watching the tropics.

[CDO62]

I'm trying to be as objective as possible here- and using my basic meteorology knowledge:

With Harvey and Cindy- EURO had them initially landfalling south of Texas, and the GFS and CMC had it going into FL beyond 5 days out (For Cindy). My point is- EURO may be overestimating the ridge, and the GFS underestimating it. They represent the "ends" of a broad cone. EURO to the SW over the GOM, and GFS to the NE into the NE. The most likely path, IMO, would be in between. While the EURO screams Florida, the in between seems to indicate N FL to the Carolinas, with a mean path over the Carolinas.

Obviously this is 10 days out so it will change a lot, but if you pinned me down and really asked what my guess was this far out- probably the Carolinas, with Isabel and Floyd being the best analogues. But please don't take this as gospel. It's an amateur guess. You can't trust models beyond 3 days. I'm still only taking basic meteorology classes so I have a long way to go in terms of forecasting skill. But this is a pattern I noticed with the models this year.

I’ve noticed the same thing too and agree 100% with this. Also I’ve noticed the GEFS has been steadily shifting SW in the long range with most of them now affecting NC or points south. Floyd may prove to be a very close analog for this system.

It will be intersting to see if the Euro starts to trend north in the next few runs or keeps steadfast with it's southerly solution.

[txwatcher91]

I'm trying to be as objective as possible here- and using my basic meteorology knowledge:

With Harvey and Cindy- EURO had them initially landfalling south of Texas, and the GFS and CMC had it going into FL beyond 5 days out (For Cindy). My point is- EURO may be overestimating the ridge, and the GFS underestimating it. They represent the "ends" of a broad cone. EURO to the SW over the GOM, and GFS to the NE into the NE. The most likely path, IMO, would be in between. While the EURO screams Florida, the in between seems to indicate N FL to the Carolinas, with a mean path over the Carolinas.

Obviously this is 10 days out so it will change a lot, but if you pinned me down and really asked what my guess was this far out- probably the Carolinas, with Isabel and Floyd being the best analogues. But please don't take this as gospel. It's an amateur guess. You can't trust models beyond 3 days. I'm still only taking basic meteorology classes so I have a long way to go in terms of forecasting skill. But this is a pattern I noticed with the models this year.

I’ve noticed the same thing too and agree 100% with this. Also I’ve noticed the GEFS has been steadily shifting SW in the long range with most of them now affecting NC or points south. Floyd may prove to be a very close analog for this system.

It will be intersting to see if the Euro starts to trend north in the next few runs or keeps steadfast with it's southerly solution.

I expect the Euro will shift a tiny bit north like it did at 12z and the GFS will shift a little bit SW. Ultimately I expect them to meet in the middle, fairly close to wher the 12z CMC had it actually.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Going to be paying VERY close attention to this storm up here.

[Ken711]

TVCN consensus shifts a little tiny bit more north.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Definitely closer to the US.

Ensembles aiming for NC/VA border.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

One of the best posts I've seen in this thread. Thank you.

Very wise words from Steve! Something I learned long ago when I first joined this site is to avoid letting how one “feels” decide how you interpret the model data. Instead, using things such as climo, the pattern tendencies, analogs, models, and what makes the most sense to determine where it could go.

I agree, a very wise post.
And just to add: there is a lot of chatter about how the models will eventually come together, Euro a little north and GFS a little south to finally get an agreement on track. This is likely to happen within a couple days or so. And that "compromise" track will also most likely end up being wrong in the end.

The beauty of watching the tropics.

That is a very good point. The history of hurricane forecasting is replete with surprises and unexpected outcomes. It's going to be a busy week for meteorologists, weather watchers, and storm chasers alike.

[Steve]

19 to 20 degree waters where? In late August??

I've never managed to understand the conversion. The entire post might as well have been written in Latin.

It's this easy: Multiply times 1.8 and add 32.

[Blown Away]

That would have to be the shortest wave length track like a rollercoaster I've ever seen a major hurricane do all while under a fairly strong ridge. Not buying it!

That is a good point, usually when we see a HP strong enough to push a system WSW in the open Atlantic it ends up being massive HP with deep wave length peak/valleys. The current guidance seems pretty flat wave lengths. Maybe I'm making no sense...

[Steve]

I'm trying to follow all these models and tracking, but it still seems just too far out to tell what's happening. I'm in CT and I hope it doesn't come anywhere near hear. Or anywhere for that matter. Harvey was enough for us in the United States. Do you think it could make a track like sandy where it hit the Carolinas and then curve back into the US? The models all seem to have a good curve to it so I think it'd be unlikely. I'm just wondering if I need to or should prepare for anything disastrous. Sorry, I'm new to tracking and learning about canes.

It's certainly possible that if it's an East Coast system it turns up but not out. You guys are always sitting ducks facing the ocean from the North to the South. It's just that the water temps as well as pattern has to be right to get anything coming up from the South or SSE. I think there is a thread with a hurricane checklist. But here's the best tip I can give you - be ahead of the crowd. Gas sells out and so do certain provisions. If you stay, you'll want to have provisions for a minimum of 3 days (3 gallons of water per person per day) and maybe some dry ice to keep in your freezer if you don't have a generator. Panic usually happens when you get within the 3 day time-frame unless there is a situation where everyone's going to evacuate. That's not likely in CT, so just have what you need. Many people make it a habit to have certain supplies bought and stored by June 1. I usually just wait because I know I follow the tropics closely enough to know when to react. It's easy to go in and buy a bunch of non perishables and cases of water before everyone else is doing it. It's easy to fill up the gas tank a few days ahead since lines after can stretch hours, and there can be shortages.

[floridasun78]

I'm trying to be as objective as possible here- and using my basic meteorology knowledge:

With Harvey and Cindy- EURO had them initially landfalling south of Texas, and the GFS and CMC had it going into FL beyond 5 days out (For Cindy). My point is- EURO may be overestimating the ridge, and the GFS underestimating it. They represent the "ends" of a broad cone. EURO to the SW over the GOM, and GFS to the NE into the NE. The most likely path, IMO, would be in between. While the EURO screams Florida, the in between seems to indicate N FL to the Carolinas, with a mean path over the Carolinas.

Obviously this is 10 days out so it will change a lot, but if you pinned me down and really asked what my guess was this far out- probably the Carolinas, with Isabel and Floyd being the best analogues. But please don't take this as gospel. It's an amateur guess. You can't trust models beyond 3 days. I'm still only taking basic meteorology classes so I have a long way to go in terms of forecasting skill. But this is a pattern I noticed with the models this year.

Disclaimer- it is too early to rule out any specific land area, so everyone should be prepared (if not already prepared before June 1st of this year) for hurricane season.

weather man say we know more by wed here in miami but leewards islands by Sunday