ATL: HARVEY - Models

[sphelps8681]

Got my water and other supplies. I am ready.

[ROCK]

this is the type od storm that METS warn us about...worse case scenario strengthen up until landfall...does not give me a warm and fuzzy feeling at all..

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS through 24 hours:

[AxaltaRacing24]

Slightly further NE

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS trend through @ hour 24: Looks like its a hair south:

[tolakram]

A little east of last run.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS a bit weaker at hour 42 compared to the 18z:

[Steve]

Yeah. It doesn't really get that far overall in 24 hours. Stuck pattern initially?

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS is now a good amount east of the 18z run at hour 48:

[tolakram]

Weaker and NE at 48 as well.

[ROCK]

more east and probably further north at landfall if it makes it high building

[Kingarabian]

Biggest change in the 00z GFS compared to the previous runs is that the core of the system is more compact:

[stormreader]

00z GFS trend through @ hour 24: Looks like its a hair south:

But you see, I don't think that initializes the storm in the right location (GFS). Look at this current pic. Storm looks to be organizing 50-75 miles further north and east. [imghttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/vis-animated.gif][/img]

[tolakram]

[stormreader]

[i mg]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/vis-animated.gif[/img]

Here it is.

[NDG]

0z GFS is slightly to the right of previous 18z & 12z runs.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Farther east

[tolakram]

Init looks exactly correct to me, the current LLC is not organized and very broad, smaller swirls are rotating around a larger circulation.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS through hour 60:

[Steve]

It's hard to disagree with the GPS position at 60 hours.