ATL: IRMA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

It really will be interesting to see which model is correct, the GFS has been just as consistent as the Euro with Irma missing the Caribbean to the north. I'm leaning towards Irma missing Florida to the east but I can't get this feeling out of my mind that Irma could end the major hurricane drought in S.Fla.

The GFS has gone from Bermuda all the way west towards Boston. It is slowly trending towards the Euro as that model has also shifted north by like 50 miles or so. I have a bad feeling that they will meet somewhere in FL through NC.

[gatorcane]

I just looked at all of the Euro model runs this week. Starting Monday 12Z it has been so consistent with its track reasoning through the 240 hour run it is hard to ignore. If anything it shows a even stronger Bermuda High ridging in its latest runs with the track shifting a bit more left. Meanwhile the GFS has been all over the place even if you throw out the 06Z and 18Z runs. The GFS seems to be trending toward a cutoff low over the Eastern US now like the Euro. The GFS just shows the low more east than the Euro for now. That is why I do believe the GFS will shift west more and why I am putting a lot more weight in the Euro track.

[Raebie]

The GFS seems unrealistic. According to TT water temperatures are running well below average acrss the east coast, and already once it gets to NY latitude it is in 20 or 19 degree waters. How can a hurricane sustain itself with those SSTs?

19 to 20 degree waters where? In late August??

[Ken711]

I just looked at all of the Euro model runs this week. Starting Monday 12Z it has been so consistent with its track reasoning through the 240 hour run it is hard to ignore. If anything it shows a even stronger Bermuda High ridging in its latest runs with the track shifting a bit more left. Meanwhile the GFS has been all over the place even if you throw out the 06Z and 18Z runs. The GFS seems to be trending toward a cutoff low over the Eastern US now like the Euro. The GFS just shows the low more east than the Euro for now. That is why I do believe the GFS will shift west more and why I am putting a lot more weight in the Euro track.

Do either the GFS or Euro have a better record with modeling the troughs as well as the ridges?

[Kazmit]

The GFS seems unrealistic. According to TT water temperatures are running well below average acrss the east coast, and already once it gets to NY latitude it is in 20 or 19 degree waters. How can a hurricane sustain itself with those SSTs?

19 to 20 degree waters where? In late August??

Degrees Celsius. Or 66-68 degrees Fahrenheit.

[ronjon]

It really will be interesting to see which model is correct, the GFS has been just as consistent as the Euro with Irma missing the Caribbean to the north. I'm leaning towards Irma missing Florida to the east but I can't get this feeling out of my mind that Irma could end the major hurricane drought in S.Fla.

You know having researched past Florida hurricane history, Irma certainly fits the bill of those major hurricanes that have struck the keys and the gold coast. The 1928 Okeechobee cane, the 1947 Ft Lauderdale cane, Hurricane Donna in 1960. The gold coast has really been living on borrowed time since if the past is prologue, we're due. What has saved the east coast of Florida, and indeed the rest of the US since the increase in atlantic basin tropical activity associated with the warm AMO in 1995, has been rather persistent east coast troughing. While overall activity has been up post-1995, actual land falling hurricanes have been much below average - especially compared to the previous warm AMO period from 1930-1970. One only has to view tropical cyclone tracks that hit the state in the 1930s and 40s and wonder if anyone would live in the state if that same pattern existed today.

[floridasun78]

I just looked at all of the Euro model runs this week. Starting Monday 12Z it has been so consistent with its track reasoning through the 240 hour run it is hard to ignore. If anything it shows a even stronger Bermuda High ridging in its latest runs with the track shifting a bit more left. Meanwhile the GFS has been all over the place even if you throw out the 06Z and 18Z runs. The GFS seems to be trending toward a cutoff low over the Eastern US now like the Euro. The GFS just shows the low more east than the Euro for now. That is why I do believe the GFS will shift west more and why I am putting a lot more weight in the Euro track.

nhc going with Euro not much with gfs

[Raebie]

The GFS seems unrealistic. According to TT water temperatures are running well below average acrss the east coast, and already once it gets to NY latitude it is in 20 or 19 degree waters. How can a hurricane sustain itself with those SSTs?

19 to 20 degree waters where? In late August??

I've never managed to understand the conversion. The entire post might as well have been written in Latin.

[AutoPenalti]

I just looked at all of the Euro model runs this week. Starting Monday 12Z it has been so consistent with its track reasoning through the 240 hour run it is hard to ignore. If anything it shows a even stronger Bermuda High ridging in its latest runs with the track shifting a bit more left. Meanwhile the GFS has been all over the place even if you throw out the 06Z and 18Z runs. The GFS seems to be trending toward a cutoff low over the Eastern US now like the Euro. The GFS just shows the low more east than the Euro for now. That is why I do believe the GFS will shift west more and why I am putting a lot more weight in the Euro track.

nhc going with Euro not much with gfs

NHC has been giving more weight to the Euro because of how it has performed the past 3-5 days, the key here is consistency.

[Blinhart]

The GFS seems unrealistic. According to TT water temperatures are running well below average acrss the east coast, and already once it gets to NY latitude it is in 20 or 19 degree waters. How can a hurricane sustain itself with those SSTs?

19 to 20 degree waters where? In late August??

That I'm sure in Celsius not Fahrenheit.

[latitude_20]

It's probably fruitless to ask since I've been at this online since the mid 90s. It's been a long, long time since there was a threat of a major with a wide spread in possible landfalls. That inevitably leads to -removed- and model wars. Please consider that model x isn't better than model y because it's closer to you. There are long time posters that I'm not going to name who almost never miss the opportunity to wishcast based on the models that show a storm coming to them. Many of them would argue for the Clipper model if it showed it going near to them. Models hitting anything over 10 days out are rare. The GFS being one of them is rarer. Please consider that probably at least a few hundred people or more will read your post. For instance, if you are in Louisiana, try to consider why the North Carolina or Florida model may be right. Hundreds of people thank you in advance.

One of the best posts I've seen in this thread. Thank you.

[floridasun78]

to tell you true i not sure if dade county government know what to do cat 3-4 remember wilma came from gulf coast not east coast hurr Andrew did not hit heat of city but was bad deep south dade alot people living here was not here for Andrew or Wilma not sure if know how get ready for cat3-4 so if i say if this get close se bahama this going cazy place that why i going going check my list this weekend buy stuff because by wed should know better track if show se Bahamas hype will start with local news

[YoshiMike]

I'm trying to follow all these models and tracking, but it still seems just too far out to tell what's happening. I'm in CT and I hope it doesn't come anywhere near hear. Or anywhere for that matter. Harvey was enough for us in the United States. Do you think it could make a track like sandy where it hit the Carolinas and then curve back into the US? The models all seem to have a good curve to it so I think it'd be unlikely. I'm just wondering if I need to or should prepare for anything disastrous. Sorry, I'm new to tracking and learning about canes.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm trying to follow all these models and tracking, but it still seems just too far out to tell what's happening. I'm in CT and I hope it doesn't come anywhere near hear. Or anywhere for that matter. Harvey was enough for us in the United States. Do you think it could make a track like sandy where it hit the Carolinas and then curve back into the US? The models all seem to have a good curve to it so I think it'd be unlikely. I'm just wondering if I need to or should prepare for anything disastrous. Sorry, I'm new to tracking and learning about canes.

Keep tabs on it but we'll know more on track in 5 days as the models will have a better idea by then

[redneck51]

I've never managed to understand the conversion.

You don't need to. Google is your friend. Just Google for instance 20C to F: https://goo.gl/iHNn9W

[jlauderdal]

to tell you true i not sure if dade county government know what to do cat 3-4 remember wilma came from gulf coast not east coast hurr Andrew did not hit heat of city but was bad deep south dade alot people living here was not here for Andrew or Wilma not sure if know how get ready for cat3-4 so if i say if this get close se bahama this going cazy place that why i going going check my list this weekend buy stuff because by wed should know better track if show se Bahamas hype will start with local news

Wherever you are, prepare for at least 5 days, Beaumont texas has no drinking water, assume zero govt help for 5 days, not because they are incompetent, its just too much at first...just look.at houston, the citizens rallied because the govt cant do it all...5 days minimum water, if you can only afford a few things, WATER...preparation reduces anxiety big time

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/903420674131333122

[YoshiMike]

I'm trying to follow all these models and tracking, but it still seems just too far out to tell what's happening. I'm in CT and I hope it doesn't come anywhere near hear. Or anywhere for that matter. Harvey was enough for us in the United States. Do you think it could make a track like sandy where it hit the Carolinas and then curve back into the US? The models all seem to have a good curve to it so I think it'd be unlikely. I'm just wondering if I need to or should prepare for anything disastrous. Sorry, I'm new to tracking and learning about canes.

Keep tabs on it but we'll know more on track in 5 days as the models will have a better idea by then

Cool man. Thanks for the info!

[Bocadude85]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/903420674131333122

Pretty much the whole state on Florida in that 30% probability

[WeatherEmperor]

TVCN consensus shifts a little tiny bit more north.


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