ATL: IRMA - Models

[ronjon]

I think we'll have to watch the trends in 500 mb pattern between GFS and Euro. I think the Euro was first to cut off the trough and now GFS is playing catchup.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The westward shifts with the GFS are not done. The fact it is now showing a cutoff low over the Eastern US suggests it is trending more toward the Euro.

Euro aside. The big picture today with these trends is that a fish storm is looking less likely.

[weathaguyry]

My hands are sweating from what I'm seeing on this run, this would probably be stronger then the 1938 hurricane, more like a cat 4

[SouthFLTropics]

The westward shifts with the GFS are not done. The fact it is now showing a cutoff low over the Eastern US suggests it is trending more toward the Euro.

Agreed, I think we see the Euro come north and east some and the GFS comes South and west a lot.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like it might not even make it past 60-65w

Very well past that and then some

[RL3AO]

So much for this staying east of Bermuda this run as was called by one or two.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I think we'll have to watch the trends in 500 mb pattern between GFS and Euro. I think the Euro was first to cut off the trough and now GFS is playing catchup.

IF this all verifies, then we have to give the euro a lot of credit. It has proven year after year than it can sniff out trends before others find them.

[CrazyC83]

How big does that look in terms of dimensions, 600 miles in diameter + ?

That would be a $200 billion + disaster. That seems an accurate estimate.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks like it might not even make it past 60-65w

Very well past that and then some

It even made it past 70w

[meriland29]

Hit NE...

[SouthFLTropics]

Blows Cape Cod away!!!

[AxaltaRacing24]

Landfall

[AxaltaRacing24]

Round 2?

[curtadams]

How big does that look in terms of dimensions, 600 miles in diameter + ?

By finger measurement, tropical storm strength winds north to south is about the same as the width of Pennsylvania, so about 280 miles. A little more east to west.

Edit: I don't think the first continental landfall is at that location. From the direction of travel, it would probably be in southeastern Massachusetts, and we just don't see it at that time resolution.

[Frank P]

Looks to me it actually makes first landfall on Boston..

[SouthFLTropics]

That sure would mess up opening weekend NFL for some teams. Won't bother the Patriots though since they play on Thursday night, September 7th.

[Steve]

This GFS run is literally giving me knots in my stomach, with the cutoff and a straight path up the east coast

Take some medication because you have at least a week and a half. Knots not only convert to miles per hour, they also turn into ulcers. And yeah ry, it's scary for sure.

[TheStormExpert]

The westward shifts with the GFS are not done. The fact it is now showing a cutoff low over the Eastern US suggests it is trending more toward the Euro.

I guess you can't go against the Euro.

[meriland29]

How big does that look in terms of dimensions, 600 miles in diameter + ?

That would be a $200 billion + disaster. That seems an accurate estimate.

Well I don't doubt its destructiveness. 200 billion though you think? Katrina was the most costly ever recorded at 108 billion, and you estimate double?

[SouthFLTropics]

Round 2?

Jose wants to get in on the CONUS action.