ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

on a side note. it passing south of the next forecast point and not much on a northerly component yet ...

Been noticing this all morning.

GFS shows WNW to NW movement the next 12 hours which doesn't look likely so the model is may already be right-biased again even in the short-term like Irma

[galaxy401]

Yeah this storm already looks like a strong Tropical Storm. If only ASCAT or other microwave imagery can get a good pass on it.

[abajan]

Ok what cane status do you think Aric?

Joe B on his Saturday Summary has it weaker near the islands 1/2 (up to a 3 and down to a 2) before settling on a 4 on his track heading for the Carolinas. No way we're getting hit by 3 Cat 4's in 1 year, right? :/ His window is eastern Gulf to out to sea Monday a week, but this is as ominous as it gets a week out. Get your stuff this weekend or early next week if you're running low on supplies on the SE Coast and possibly FL East Coast early this week and beat the rushes.

https://www.weatherbell.com/

I can't even think about that right now Steve. I'm physically and mentally exhausted from Irma
Just got power back. Large branches, trees and many power poles down along the Pinellas coast.

I'm exhausted from Irma, and we weren't even hit!

[tolakram]

loop. I can't get any of the higher res products to load at the moment.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[ColdMiser123]

I would be shocked if this was not a tropical cyclone at the moment.

[tolakram]

COD loop

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-200-1-100

[cjrciadt]

wow!

[ColdMiser123]

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

2:00 PM AST Sat Sep 16
Location: 11.9°N 51.6°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
200 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 51.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine

[NDG]

NHC is being very conservative with its strength forecast for TD 15.

[Aric Dunn]

Really a depression ? Hmmmm lol

[Aric Dunn]

NHC is being very conservative with its strength forecast for TD 15.

Not.exactly the right time for that..

[NDG]

Looking at HR visible loop this morning it looks like the circulation is closed this morning. Hopefully they start advisories at 11 AM so that residents of the Lesser Antilles start getting prepared for a possible impact and hopefully this morning's ASCAT catches it.

When is the next pass?

It missed the whole circulation.

[NDG]

NHC is being very conservative with its strength forecast for TD 15.

Not.exactly the right time for that..

What do you mean?
That is going to make people panic? They even said that they are being conservative for now.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC is being very conservative with its strength forecast for TD 15.

Not.exactly the right time for that..

What do you mean?
That is going to make people panic? They even said that they are being conservative for now.

Most people dont read the discussion they look at the line and symbol with a number. This thing moving fast. And its not the right time to be conservative.

Even a minimal hurricane is too much for some of those islands..

[NDG]

Not.exactly the right time for that..

What do you mean?
That is going to make people panic? They even said that they are being conservative for now.

Most people dont read the discussion they look at the line and symbol with a number. This thing moving fast. And its not the right time to be conservative.

Even a minimal hurricane is too much for some of those islands..

I agree. Is not time to being sensitive, all models indicate this will be a Major Hurricane so need to hide it from the public.

[psyclone]

Not.exactly the right time for that..

What do you mean?
That is going to make people panic? They even said that they are being conservative for now.

Most people dont read the discussion they look at the line and symbol with a number. This thing moving fast. And its not the right time to be conservative.

Even a minimal hurricane is too much for some of those islands..

I don't think complacency is an issue right now. No doubt folks in the line of fire are paying attention and preparing as we speak.

[psyclone]

You'd think some hurricane watches will be forthcoming soon..if not at 5 then 11

[northjaxpro]

You'd think some hurricane watches will be forthcoming soon..if not at 5 then 11

Definitely by 11 p.m. I would think. This system is moving rather briskly atm, so 5 p.m. is possible.

[RT23]

This systems been moving west more so than a 280 bearing, this is worrisome of us in the windwards...what do you guys think of a possible impact and what strength?