ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[BYG Jacob]

Irma is really having no effect on Jose. Is something shielding him from her, or is she just not close enough?

[znel52]

Irma is really having no effect on Jose. Is something shielding him from her, or is she just not close enough?

Jose is just barely out of Irma's massive reach.

[BYG Jacob]

Irma is really having no effect on Jose. Is something shielding him from her, or is she just not close enough?

Jose is just barely out of Irma's massive reach.

That explains it. And unfortunately for the Leewards, whatever colder water Irma upwelled has been replaced by this point.

[bob rulz]

No matter how long you watch the tropics, it always manages to do something you've never seen before.

This is truly incredible.

And with Katia still intensifying, we could have 3 majors at once!

[supercane4867]

Likely a CAT5 right now IMO

[znel52]

Likely a CAT5 right now IMO

https://i.imgur.com/hSrGCsS.gif

https://i.imgur.com/XBf63yM.gif

You can see that light whispy line of clouds out to Jose's west. That is outflow from Irma and that is how close he is to being sheared by her.

[AubreyStorm]

It’s amazing, Puerto Rico watching very closely.

[Maineman]

Jose doing scarily well

https://weather.us/satellite/571-w-162-n/top-alert-superhd-15min.html#play

VIS

https://weather.us/satellite/571-w-162-n/satellite-superhd-15min.html#play

See menu for other channels. Zoom in with click, (-) button to zoom out, pan by click into the edges.

[BZSTORM]

anyone hear if they manage to get most ppl of barbuda yet, with all that debris around it would be lethal to be there in cat 1 winds but if he makes it to cat 5 the fatalities would be horrid to contemplate. In fact how are the islands that lost all communications going to track this beast. IMO right now the islands need a miracle more than prayers. This is one frightening hurricane season so many countries affected and we still have rest of Sept and Oct to get through.

[BYG Jacob]

Likely a CAT5 right now IMO

You can see that light whispy line of clouds out to Jose's west. That is outflow from Irma and that is how close he is to being sheared by her.

Wow, that is cutting it close.

[Kazmit]

Jose is moving faster than Irma by 4kts. Is it possible for Jose to catch up and run into the outflow from Irma?

[CrazyC83]

anyone hear if they manage to get most ppl of barbuda yet, with all that debris around it would be lethal to be there in cat 1 winds but if he makes it to cat 5 the fatalities would be horrid to contemplate. In fact how are the islands that lost all communications going to track this beast. IMO right now the islands need a miracle more than prayers. This is one frightening hurricane season so many countries affected and we still have rest of Sept and Oct to get through.

A total evacuation of Barbuda is underway and to be finished today.

[AubreyStorm]

Last update NHC
“Jose is still expected to turn northwest
before reaching the Leeward Islands”

If, if really will happen? Irma it’s so close.



You can see that light whispy line of clouds out to Jose's west. That is outflow from Irma and that is how close he is to being sheared by her.[/quote]
Wow, that is cutting it close.[/quote]

[Michele B]

anyone hear if they manage to get most ppl of barbuda yet, with all that debris around it would be lethal to be there in cat 1 winds but if he makes it to cat 5 the fatalities would be horrid to contemplate. In fact how are the islands that lost all communications going to track this beast. IMO right now the islands need a miracle more than prayers. This is one frightening hurricane season so many countries affected and we still have rest of Sept and Oct to get through.

I heard earlier that they are doing evacs by air.

[Ntxw]

Jose is moving faster than Irma by 4kts. Is it possible for Jose to catch up and run into the outflow from Irma?

Jose is in an envelope on his own. He will be trapped under a ridge and lose the steering current late in the forecast so there is much uncertainty. Irma will continue to move so her effects on Jose will be little if any.

[Shell Mound]

From the discussion contained in the 21:00 UTC (5:00 p.m. EDT) advisory package:

Since the earlier reconnaissance flight, Dvorak
intensity estimates have actually increased, however they are still
lower than what the plane found. The initial intensity has been
held at 130 kt, out of respect of the earlier in-situ observations,
but given the current cloud pattern, this could be conservative.

Hmm. The Hurricane Center dealt with a similar situation in 2015, Hurricane Danny, and posthumously estimated a peak wind of 110 knots (125 mph). Although aircraft data taken hours after the peak intensity only corroborated winds of 100 knots (115 mph), the Hurricane Center extrapolated backward to the earlier satellite presentation, which according to estimates did not support 110 knots in an absolute sense, but was markedly better compared to that at the time of the reconnaissance mission. Probably in the case of Jose the Hurricane Center is awaiting aircraft and will make a final determination in the post-seasonal analysis, but as a tight system with a narrow core of peak winds and a well-defined central dense overcast and stadium eye, Jose is quite similar to 2005's Emily in the Caribbean, and probably warrants a similar upgrade to 140 kt after the fact.

[EquusStorm]

Reminds me structurally of Igor in 2010, which of course peaked at 155/lower 920s, but looks a little better organized than that. I kind of hope recon gets there before it starts to lose its unbelievable structure.

[Shell Mound]

You won't see this every day—an incredibly rare portrait of two near-Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes in close proximity to each other and to land, their inner cores simultaneously visible on a composite of regional radars. This is definitely worth a save for future reference, as this kind of occurrence is almost unprecedented globally, except perhaps in the western North Pacific, but is certainly exceptional elsewhere, especially in the Atlantic basin. Usually, the radar coverage is too poor, and the alignment of factors to bring about this rare circumstance usually never happens. Fortunately, the Caribbean contains a number of decent radar sites, especially the National Weather Service facility in San Juan, Puerto Rico, the Meteorological Institute of Cuba's own Doppler network, and of course METEO FRANCE's coverage; but on the whole such coverage is quite paltry over the western North Pacific, though the region is comparably dotted with islands and larger land masses like China, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Most of the coverage is over the South China and Yellow Seas, that is, the Koreas, Japan, Taiwan, and China. The Philippines needs more radars, and everyone else needs radars, period.

Oh, and here's the source of this remarkable image.

[BZSTORM]

anyone hear if they manage to get most ppl of barbuda yet, with all that debris around it would be lethal to be there in cat 1 winds but if he makes it to cat 5 the fatalities would be horrid to contemplate. In fact how are the islands that lost all communications going to track this beast. IMO right now the islands need a miracle more than prayers. This is one frightening hurricane season so many countries affected and we still have rest of Sept and Oct to get through.

I heard earlier that they are doing evacs by air.

that's good to hear, yesterday it was one dive boat ferrying ppl .

[EyELeSs1]

anyone hear if they manage to get most ppl of barbuda yet, with all that debris around it would be lethal to be there in cat 1 winds but if he makes it to cat 5 the fatalities would be horrid to contemplate. In fact how are the islands that lost all communications going to track this beast. IMO right now the islands need a miracle more than prayers. This is one frightening hurricane season so many countries affected and we still have rest of Sept and Oct to get through.

I heard earlier that they are doing evacs by air.

that's good to hear, yesterday it was one dive boat ferrying ppl .

I have heard that we got everyone out of Barbuda with the help of Venezuelan cargo planes! Crazy that they were the ones to help with all that's going on there!