ATL: IRMA - Models

[wxmann_91]

IKE was actually supposed to recurve through the Bahamas but the models kept moving west. Then South Florida was under the gun for a few days and eventually we know what happened in Cuba/Gulf. I recall the GFDL at the time was the first model to show the WSW turn into Cuba. Even the ECMWF was showing recurve in the Bahamas east of Florida for several days until we got closer to the event.

Actually, from what I recall, the Euro was one of the first to see the SW turn.

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS has strong wind shear over this...some of it caused by another system in the GOM near the Texas coast




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[chaser1]

On ther other hand, if today's EURO run continues to stick with an intense system coming into the islands..... the fact that the GFS has practically lost this system at 172 hr.s IS a bit unnerving. I'm guessing that the EURO will come in with a less intense system on its 12Z run. As a side note, the GFS is even picking up some home brew (or Pacific transplant) in the far W. Gulf?? NOT what anyone wants to see right now)

[chaser1]

GFS has strong wind shear over this...some of it caused by another system in the GOM near the Texas coast




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Looks like the GFS is creating a TUTT feature causing a disruption over the system. Would'nt surprise me if there's any validity to this, for the EURO to pick up on this feature shortly, thus possibly showing a weaker system in the upcoming 12Z. Other possibility is that the GFS is overplaying a more transient cut off low that may well be pushing west in tandem with the system??

[chaser1]

GFS goes "poof" at 186 hours, and doesn't seem to reappear up to at least 210 hr.s. An interesting test whether the EURO remains bullish or also sees what the GFS sees here.

[SFLcane]

Lol oh boy here we go...GFS drops it

[JPmia]

Surprise surprise, the GFS is trending toward the Euro of stronger Atlantic ridging.

the gfs sofla hit is on the way...

Happens every year around this time!

[WeatherEmperor]

Just for giggles...here is the 12z Canadian slowly moving WNW at the end of the run approaching the southern Bahamas lol




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[Bocadude85]

Usually when the GFS drops development the Euro follows suit, we shall see soon enough.

[TheStormExpert]

Surprise surprise, the GFS is trending toward the Euro of stronger Atlantic ridging.

But what really shows is little to basically no development through the run.

[gatorcane]

The GFS continues to be about as good as the NAVGEM. I really doubt the Euro will drop development.

[TheStormExpert]

I've lost track of how many times this season the GFS has fooled me showing a Tropical Atlantic hurricane many runs in a row only to drop it suddenly in just 1 run. The takeaway is despite the season peak just being less than 2 weeks away the Tropical Atlantic remains EXTREMELY unfavorable for whatever reasons.

[TheStormExpert]

Lol oh boy here we go...GFS drops it

What happened to the days of just being able to easily get a long tracking decent Cape Verde type hurricane near the peak? Seems those are nowhere to be found this season!

[N2FSU]

+312hr; vorticity regains a little steam and heads into S Florida

[otowntiger]

I've lost track of how many times this season the GFS has fooled me showing a Tropical Atlantic hurricane many runs in a row only to drop it suddenly in just 1 run. The takeaway is despite the season peak just being less than 2 weeks away the Tropical Atlantic remains EXTREMELY unfavorable for whatever reasons.

Huh????

[SouthFLTropics]

The hurricane enthusiast in me hopes that 93L isn't following in 92L's footsteps. The human in me is glad to see it go poof on the 12z GFS.

[TheStormExpert]

I've lost track of how many times this season the GFS has fooled me showing a Tropical Atlantic hurricane many runs in a row only to drop it suddenly in just 1 run. The takeaway is despite the season peak just being less than 2 weeks away the Tropical Atlantic remains EXTREMELY unfavorable for whatever reasons.

Huh????

The GFS has cried wolf far more times than I can keep track.

[gatorcane]

UKMET staying with development:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 16.9N 29.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.08.2017 24 16.9N 29.1W 1009 30
0000UTC 31.08.2017 36 17.0N 31.6W 1007 28
1200UTC 31.08.2017 48 17.5N 33.3W 1006 29
0000UTC 01.09.2017 60 18.1N 34.9W 1006 32
1200UTC 01.09.2017 72 18.9N 36.8W 1005 35
0000UTC 02.09.2017 84 19.4N 38.7W 1006 34
1200UTC 02.09.2017 96 19.5N 41.0W 1004 36
0000UTC 03.09.2017 108 18.7N 43.1W 1002 34
1200UTC 03.09.2017 120 17.8N 44.8W 999 40
0000UTC 04.09.2017 132 17.4N 46.0W 994 55
1200UTC 04.09.2017 144 17.8N 48.2W 991 53

[JPmia]

I've lost track of how many times this season the GFS has fooled me showing a Tropical Atlantic hurricane many runs in a row only to drop it suddenly in just 1 run. The takeaway is despite the season peak just being less than 2 weeks away the Tropical Atlantic remains EXTREMELY unfavorable for whatever reasons.

I think it's a little early to think that.. yes the GFS seems to suck this year, but we are now in prime time and if this does develop then we know it's the model if it doesn't develop we know it is something environmental. We'll know in about 4-10 days.

[gatorcane]

When the GFS has cried wolf this season almost always it doesn't have other models like the Euro on board.