ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS compared to the 12z:

[Kingarabian]

Almost the exact same position as the 12z run for the GFS. It is weaker this run though.

Yeah, just east.

[hd44]

Gfs shows favorable conditons from hour 48 to hour 72. Key is what shape can it get to before then. Lets say this a tropical storm before then... then it can landfall much stronger. Key take away is slow formation through 48 hours... then quick ramp up.

[Alyono]

GFS appears to have the wrong initial vortex. I am seeing the ONLY reason this run is weaker is the vortex is too broad. Simply takes a little too long to spin up

[AxaltaRacing24]

According to the GFS, this is weaker......

[RL3AO]

GFS appears to have the wrong initial vortex. I am seeing the ONLY reason this run is weaker is the vortex is too broad. Simply takes a little too long to spin up

Similar to my thoughts. A well defined vortex is likely by tomorrow.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS appears to have the wrong initial vortex. I am seeing the ONLY reason this run is weaker is the vortex is too broad. Simply takes a little too long to spin up

So that could make a huge difference in how strong the GFS makes it?

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS through hour 84:

[Alyono]

GFS appears to have the wrong initial vortex. I am seeing the ONLY reason this run is weaker is the vortex is too broad. Simply takes a little too long to spin up

So that could make a huge difference in how strong the GFS makes it?

yeah. Could be by as much a 40 mb

[Frank P]

[quote="Kingarabian"]18z GFS through hour 84:

and pressure still falling over land albeit not much...

[Kingarabian]

GFS appears to have the wrong initial vortex. I am seeing the ONLY reason this run is weaker is the vortex is too broad. Simply takes a little too long to spin up

I think the GFS has been developing the same vortex for the past couple of runs now. Just that the previous were more north and in turn the system had more time over very warm waters and that's why we would see a Cat.3 - Cat.4 landfall.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

GFS appears to have the wrong initial vortex. I am seeing the ONLY reason this run is weaker is the vortex is too broad. Simply takes a little too long to spin up

So that could make a huge difference in how strong the GFS makes it?

yeah. Could be by as much a 40 mb

Exactly and that's what draws it further north is the broad spin if you watch it and thanks for pointing that out

[Alyono]

GFS appears to have the wrong initial vortex. I am seeing the ONLY reason this run is weaker is the vortex is too broad. Simply takes a little too long to spin up

I think the GFS has been developing the same vortex for the past couple of runs now. Just that the previous were more north and in turn the system had more time over very warm waters and that's why we would see a Cat.3 - Cat.4 landfall.

it's too broad. If it were tighter, it would intensify quicker given that upper environment

[Kingarabian]

GFS through hour 96:

[Kingarabian]

GFS appears to have the wrong initial vortex. I am seeing the ONLY reason this run is weaker is the vortex is too broad. Simply takes a little too long to spin up

I think the GFS has been developing the same vortex for the past couple of runs now. Just that the previous were more north and in turn the system had more time over very warm waters and that's why we would see a Cat.3 - Cat.4 landfall.

it's too broad. If it were tighter, it would intensify quicker given that upper environment

On satellite the vort we're tracking seems considerably smaller. The models including the Euro for some reason think the whole system is one large circulation.

[RL3AO]

Keep this thread on topic and avoid back and forths with other users.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS through hour 120. Now just looping and meandering:



Bad flooding event.

[ronjon]

Weakening over Hill Country on 18z GFS.

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS looks more similar to the 12z Euro Ensemble with it tracking back south across TX after stalling in central TX.

[Frank P]

H50 GFS heading SSE back towards the Gulf on the immediate coast