ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sphelps8681]

Looks like it's headed to SW La.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... h&loop=yes

I have been watching the spaghetti models and they have been shifting more left a little bit at a time. Still showing borderline SE Texas/SW LA.

[vbhoutex]

Anyone know how far behind the winds and rain will lag? I'm supposed to fly out of Hobby (Houston) at 5:45 Thursday afternoon to Boston. Trying to see if that's realistic or if im here til Friday

If Cindy landfalls as far East of Houston as it appears she will at this time, I would think your flight would be a go. Of course Hobby is much closer to the coast than IAH which is on the North side. That could be an alternative if you must get back and your airline decides to cancel.

[cycloneye]

@iCyclone
Gotta hand it to the global models: they did a great job sniffing out the essential structural junkiness of #TropicalStormCINDY, days out.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/877611442823872516

[TwinMom1021]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0354
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 211900Z - 220030Z

SUMMARY...OUTER BAND OF TS CINDY TAKING SHAPE OVER LIKELY TO TRACK
THROUGH SATURATED AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH TRAINING
HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING CELLS LEADING TO LIKELY FLASH
FLOODING..

DISCUSSION...EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 VIS/IR INDICATE CONVECTIVE
GROWTH BETWEEN SW TIP OF MS THROUGH THE MS RIVER DELTA.
IMPRESSIVE 1500+ J/KG MLCAPES (GIVEN MOIST LAPSE RATES) ARE
AVAILABLE TO FEED THESE EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CELLS. ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE ROTATING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WITH ASSOCIATED
SPEED MAX THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS IS ENHANCING PRESSURE FALLS ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE BAND TO FOCUS INCREASED CONFLUENCE ALONG THE BAND
TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND TAP THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT. PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE SATURATED THROUGH THE CLOUD
LAYER FOR SIGNIFICANT WARM PROCESS RAINFALL GENERATION...GIVEN
TPWS UP TO 2.6" WITHIN THE BAND AND STRONG MST CONVERGENCE
FLUX...RAIN RATES UP TO 3"/HR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE CELLS
PARTICULARLY IF THEY CONTINUE TO GROW TO MID-UPPER LEVELS (SUB
-70C ON EIR).

TO COMPOUND MATTERS...THE STRENGTHENED CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL
FLOW/FLUX OF 40-50KT SFC TO 70KT 850MB WILL SUPPORT UPSTREAM
PROPAGATION VECTORS (15-20KT) BACK OPPOSITE TO THE 40-45KT MEAN
CLOUD BARING FLOW...SUPPORTING A TRAINING PROFILE. THERE IS SOME
ANGULAR SPLIT OF THE PROPAGATION VECTOR (PER RAP/HRRR) THAT
SUGGEST SOME SLOW NE MOVEMENT OF THE BAND SHOULD OCCUR MOVING THE
FOCUS FROM SE LA TOWARD S MS WITH TIME...OBVIOUSLY THIS IS THE
LARGEST UNKNOWN/UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE BAND
IS QUITE SLOW LIFTING SUCH AS THE NAM-CONEST/NMMB (THOUGH ALREADY
TOO FAR NE FROM REALITY)...THOSE TYPES OF MAGNITUDES (4-7" BY 00Z)
ARE POSSIBLE. MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT BUT ONE CAN DERIVE SOME
INFORMATION/EXPECTATION FROM THE GUIDANCE JUST SHIFTING THE
MAGNITUDES SW BY A COUNTY OR SO.

EVEN WITH MODEST RAINFALL OF 3-4" TOTALS SUGGESTED BY EVEN THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL HRRR AND HRRRX...THIS WOULD EXCEED FFG
VALUES IN THE AREA OF CONCERN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST NEARER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT FLASH
FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 6HRS...WITH POSSIBLE MAGNITUDES
CAPABLE OF LIFE-THREATENING FF WHICH IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN (WITH
DEVELOPMENT TRENDS TOWARD IT).

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON 32319063 32088951 31428865 30348832 29948840
29818870 29428891 29298889 28928898 28828933
28958958 29098988 29069009 29479038 30529155
31079151

[wxman57]

It's hard to discern the movement from a 1-2 hour satellite loop, but if you flip between images 6 hours apart you'll notice that the center moved 50-60 miles to the NW. That's about a 9kt NW movement. It's clearly moving, but the broad open center isn't easy to track.

[Steve]

More tornado warnings in Mobile and Gulf Shores. One also north of Defuniak Springs.

http://www.weather.gov/mob/

[tropicwatch]

Looks like three circulations, pick one.


http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-12-0

[RL3AO]

Looks like three circulations, pick one.
]

That usually means the answer is D - None of the Above.

AKA the spot in the middle of the three lows.

[Cuda17]

Another good tool to use to follow Cindy...

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Gulf_Coast-vis-1-48&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100

[sphelps8681]

I live in Lumberton which is North of Beaumont and about 60 +/- to border of Louisisana. A little wind earlier but nothing special. Rain (well) we will call it a drizzle for about 20 minutes. This Miss Cindy may go right over us. Will keep you informed when things pick up more.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CINDY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 93.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

[sphelps8681]

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Cindy continues to have the overall appearance of a subtropical
cyclone this afternoon. However, the convective area just northwest
of the center has become somewhat better organized based on coastal
radar data, and the wind field has become smaller and more like a
tropical cyclone. Surface observations and reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the maximum winds
remain near 45 kt, mainly in the northwestern quadrant.

The initial motion is 315/8. There is again little change in either
the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the
previous advisory. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move
through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the
northwest Gulf of Mexico coast, with landfall in southeastern Texas
or southwestern Louisiana in less than 24 hours. After 24-36 hours
Cindy, or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward in the
westerlies over the eastern United States.

Given the continued presence of dry air near the center, as shown by
experimental GOES-16 data, and its generally negative effects on the
central convection, little change in strength is expected before
landfall. Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become
absorbed by a frontal system over the eastern United States just
after 72 h.

While the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from
intensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall
threat. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening
flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the
flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

[Tireman4]

She is still going NW...humm...when does she make the turn...?


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[sphelps8681]

She is still going NW...humm...when does she make the turn...?


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

When she breaks through the mid-level subtropical ridge along the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast??? LOL.

[Tireman4]

She is still going NW...humm...when does she make the turn...?


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

When she breaks through the mid-level subtropical ridge along the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast.

She better hurry or the Houston/Galveston folks will get more than...well more....LOL....

[sphelps8681]

She is still going NW...humm...when does she make the turn...?


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

When she breaks through the mid-level subtropical ridge along the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast.

She better hurry or the Houston/Galveston folks will get more than...well more....LOL....

I know I am just east of there near Beaumont, Tx. Nothing will be good if that happens.

[wkwally]

What are the chances of Cindy wobbling West on landfall as from what I can see it would not take much of that happening for Houston to be flooded.

[cajungal]

60 miles southwest of New Orleans and we got blue skies and sunshine all day. Would never know we were under a tropical storm warning.

[Agua]

What are the chances of Cindy wobbling West on landfall as from what I can see it would not take much of that happening for Houston to be flooded.

Against east-west running coastlines if the trajectory is north, they have a tendency to veer east before landfall. Or that's been my observation, anyway.

[PTrackerLA]

Complete non-event here today. Dry-slotted and no precipitation to speak of since early this morning. Highest gust has been 25mph, I really wish the NWS would drop the inland tropical storm warnings, it's just a bad look at this point. Maybe we'll get a few squalls tonight but I actually think our chances will be higher tomorrow as the remnants lift north of us.