ATL: MARIA - Models

[T'Bonz]

^ No GFS on that anymore?

[1900hurricane]

^ No GFS on that anymore?

It is AVNO.

[txwatcher91]

Now that Jose is dying out quickly it seems likely this is going to pass very close to the NC coast, if not make landfall. You have GFS, CMC, UK, NAVGEM all within about 100 miles or less of the coast. Euro is the lone outlier and I would expect it to come west tonight too.

[aperson]

00z Euro looks like a hit straight out the gate between Jose breaking down faster and the western trough building deeper and more progressive

[FlyMolo]

Yup this is gonna be a hit probably. The high has bridged both n and s of Jose remnants. It's going straight into NC.

[Brent]

Euro is way west at 72, if this doesn't hit its gonna be real close

Easily 100 miles west

[Brent]

about a degree east of Hatteras longtitude at 96 still majorly west of prior runs

[Vdogg]

West trend has solidified and we're 5 days out. Eastern NC/VA likely in the cone at 5 am update. Gonna get my Hurricane supplies this weekend just in case. Models still have this solution by Monday and there's going to be a rush.

[aperson]

Really not a fan of where this is heading. Steering breaking down at hr 96 near coastal NC. Will likely stall until the ULL to the NW pushes through. Looks like speed of Maria is going to be one of the biggest factors to watch as Euro now buys into GFS route.

[Brent]

looks like a stall just southeast of Hatteras at 120

at 144 gets within 100 miles and should recurve now... still significantly west of previous runs

[hurricaneCW]

I wouldn't be surprised to see that trough orientation change moving forward with a big PNA spike showing up.

That could eventually send Maria more NNE up the coast rather than eastward. Also think she has plenty of room to move further west now that Jose is out of the picture.

You don't see the Euro making such a big shift in under 3 days often.

[aperson]

I wouldn't be surprised to see that trough orientation change moving forward with a big PNA spike showing up.

That could eventually send Maria more NNE up the coast rather than eastward. Also think she has plenty of room to move further west now that Jose is out of the picture.

You don't see the Euro making such a big shift in under 3 days often.

Thanks a ton for bringing up that excellent point, it was a great learning experience for me.

For reference for anyone else, see the attached pictures of the 500mb height anomaly pattern for positive PNA: https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PNA.html

Here is the current ESRL PNA forecast: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts ... ecast.html

tau=72 on the current ECMWF run looks like the beginning of a positive PNA anomaly forming, but the interaction with Maria changes the behavior on the following days: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=142

[Vdogg]

Didn't see this posted. UKMET came west.

Check out @snowmonian's Tweet: https://twitter.com/snowmonian/status/9 ... 28512?s=09

[aperson]

Didn't see this posted. UKMET came west.

Check out @snowmonian's Tweet: https://twitter.com/snowmonian/status/9 ... 28512?s=09

So GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all on board with a game of chicken then a recurve but disagree on where. This seems brutal to forecast, lots of uncertainty and very sensitive to small perturbations.

[Vdogg]

Didn't see this posted. UKMET came west.

Check out @snowmonian's Tweet: https://twitter.com/snowmonian/status/9 ... 28512?s=09

So GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all on board with a game of chicken then a recurve but disagree on where. This seems brutal to forecast, lots of uncertainty and very sensitive to small perturbations.

Ukmet has the eye on top of OBX. The eye is currently 30 miles wide. That would bring hurricane conditions to both OBX and Hampton Roads.

[Vdogg]

Not as big of a west adjustment as I was expecting, but they do note that they may adjust it further west later today (pending model trends). Obx is now firmly in the cone with the outer edge scraping VB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

[Vdogg]

Of interesting note, in the 5 a.m. discussion they have dropped the expectation that it would turn due north later today. Instead they now say it will travel in NNW to N through the next few days. This seems to indicate that this continued westerly motion may have a further effect on the models and track. I'd be interested to look a few days back and see where previous model runs had the storm position at this time.

[Vdogg]

Ever so slight east shift on 06z GFS, but basically same as 00, sitting (stalling) right off obx.

[Alyono]

Ever so slight east shift on 06z GFS, but basically same as 00, sitting (stalling) right off obx.

it shifted south, not east. That's why the Outer Banks don't get hit hard this run

Also, this could easily end up missing Jose's cold wake

[SootyTern]

Cutting it very close as Jose becomes less and less of a factor while ridging is only getting stronger.

Timing of the trough is key but I wouldn't be surprised if Maria makes it inland however I don't know how strong she'll be. Water temps won't be the issue but continental dry air and shear probably will be.

If she makes landfall I don't think it'll be more than a minimal Cat 2 and more likely a 90-95 mph Cat 1.

Flood risk could be just as bad if she stalls over eastern NC no matter what cat she comes in as