ATL: IRMA - Models

[Panfan1995]

I am sorry but this storm just does not seem logical to move into GOM. That high at 240hrs seems way over done and the more logical approach like for wx Fran or Hugo seems to be a more accurate review. I think someone said a turn up the EC and toward NC was on basis given historu

[gatorcane]

Look, the 12Z JMA is showing a cutoff low now in the long-range like the Euro is showing:

[Dean4Storms]

I am sorry but this storm just does not seem logical to move into GOM. That high at 240hrs seems way over done and the more logical approach like for wx Fran or Hugo seems to be a more accurate review. I think someone said a turn up the EC and toward NC was on basis given historu

This time of year and not mid or late Sept, Oct, etc.... A ridge this strong is still very possible.

[SouthFLTropics]

Look, the 12Z JMA is showing a cutoff low now in the long-range like the Euro is showing:

Big difference though, the JMA has Irma much further north at that hour just like the GFS has.

[stormlover2013]

I mean like a ridge builds across the eastern United States. The system in the gulf moves north and weakens that ridge but then it builds back in as Irma moves into the gulf.

[Panfan1995]

So a cut off ridge would do what?

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF HRES animation between hour 108 and 240:

http://i.imgur.com/RYhhE8s.gif

Source: weather.us

Awesome animation you can use the menus to the left of the image to select other parameters like simulated radar, 700mb RH, winds, lots of good stuff in there!

Yeah, but it takes a lot of time to download and resize every single frame. To create animations, a "make GIF" or at least a "download whole run" button would make things a lot easier I will probably do another GIF once the control run is out...

Yeah, we're working on that. GIF creation is a CPU intensive process. Instead of that, we run in house 1x1km grid models: https://weather.us/model-charts/friscoy ... 2300z.html. I think it's a worthwhile tradeoff once we continue to grow and resources aren't as much of an issue, we'll add it!

[Steve]

12Z Euro run animation

Thanks for this animation. Notice Irma rides inside the 588dm and at the last run position it has backed way off and even east of Florida. With that I would have to surmise with the trough to its west it makes a sharp turn northward in the SE GOM to follow the least path of resistance or the mean position between the High and the Trough.

A sharp turn North out of that run would be physically impossible. Look at 500mb and higher. I could buy NNW though..

[fendie]

Does anyone have a general idea of the forward speed at the end of that Euro Run? Curious to see how fast across the FL Straights she would be going.

Looks to move about 200 miles WNW from 228-to-240 hours. So ~16-17 mph. Just mapped the two points from hi-res 12Z Euro and calculated straight-line distance between them. Starts just of the northern coast of Cuba and ends just west of Key West. Not sure if 12 hours is a good sample size for cyclone movement.

[weathaguyry]

12Z Euro run animation

Thanks for this animation. Notice Irma rides inside the 588dm and at the last run position it has backed way off and even east of Florida. With that I would have to surmise with the trough to its west it makes a sharp turn northward in the SE GOM to follow the least path of resistance or the mean position between the High and the Trough.

A sharp turn North out of that run would be physically impossible. Look at 500mb and higher. I could buy NNW though..

Yeah, you can see the ridge nosing in at the end pushing back that weak trough over the Midwest

[WeatherEmperor]

The TVCN and TVCX consensus models are north of the Euro and just touch the extreme upper right part of the Hebert Box.


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[TheStormExpert]

12z EPS(Euro) Ensembles @240hrs.

[KWT]

12z ECM ensembles are still quite spread out. Plenty of models aiming for the USA, more are to the north of the op than south but very few are obvious outright recurves out to sea, most of the northern lot are aiming towards the Carolinas.

IMO, the CMC is not a bad middle ground forecast and I suspect that will aim for the Carolinas as well. UKMO also not a bad middle ground.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro Control shows Carolina hit

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Not the most comforting to see all of them converge on or all around S.FLA.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/903343877758885890

[TheStormExpert]

Not the most comforting to see all of them converge on or all around S.FLA.

I'd be more comfortable being under the gun 8-10 days out. Chances are we are safer than not.

[KWT]

What is interesting is despite the fact there is obvious spread on the ECM, nearly every run follows a broadly similar pattern in that they move up WNW between day 8-10, of course where they are depends on how quickly it turns from its WSW motion.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Normally I would agree with you, but the EURO runs have been just to consistent now the last CMC run is not to far off from the ERUO.

[Panfan1995]

Hey KWT can you post the models showing the Carolinas