ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

I don't think Euro was showing a borderline hurricane. If the overall storm was smaller, then yes low 990s would most likely mean a weak hurricane/strong TS. Cindy is a large storm and would need lower pressure to be a hurricane.
Convection is finally firing up on the NW side of circulation...

I doubt Cindy is a tropical cyclone anymore. Obviously the Euro's crazy idea on it's 12z run yesterday of showing a borderline hurricane was overdone.


https://gifyu.com/images/IMG_7408.gif

[tolakram]

Trying to build convection around the giant center again.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-12-1

[Pearl River]

I've received about 4.25" of rain here in Pearl River,La

[wxman22]

Not necessarily if it can maintain convection on the western side, which several of the models show it doing...

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: Not necessarily if it can maintain convection on the western side, which several of the models show it doing...

If you look at the latest GOES 16 shot...that maybe, and I stress maybe, trying to do.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-12-1

[1900hurricane]

Both the KLIX and KLCH soundings from 12Z showed some pretty notable layers of dry air. Both also show SW winds of 35 kt above 200 mb. In fact, the KLCH sounding doesn't look much like a tropical case sounding at all. The KLIX sounding also shows impressive low level helicity.

[PTrackerLA]

NHC tropical storm force wind graphic is definitely inaccurate over southern LA right now. It shows we should be well into TS winds here and they are 13mph gusting to 20mph. You would think that there would at least be some rounds of convection move through here this afternoon and tonight which could produce gusts to TS force, I guess we'll see. Only .50" of rain here so far.

[Javlin]

I was hoping Frank P had something to post but appears waterspout/tornado just went over/just by his house on the beach and 1/8 mile to my E still moving NW over a mile inland now.Don't worry his house is built like a rock!

[CycloneGuru]

Heavier rain and winds are increasing on the northwest side circulation

[Frank P]

I was hoping Frank P had something to post but appears waterspout/tornado just went over/just by his house on the beach and 1/8 mile to my E still moving NW over a mile inland now.Don't worry his house is built like a rock!

Thanks Javlin, it missed my house by about a half mile off to the east... I was videoing the Gulf and beach off my porch, posted the video on FB, then my neighbor called and said he saw it in the gulf heading inland towards the Coliseum... tides look to be about 2-3 feet above normal.. winds are pretty steady at 30 mph with gusts to 40 this morning...

[cycloneye]

@spann
Waterspout this morning at Biloxi... video from Ray Reeves

 https://twitter.com/spann/status/877524210092044289

[1900hurricane]

Looks like continental dry air has gutted the southern side of the circulation. I've also provided the 12Z CRP sounding, which is near the core of the dry air tongue as it crosses the coast, as a visual of how dry the air is when unmodified as it wraps into CIndy.

[Tireman4]

Recon is in there now?

[wxman57]

I doubt Cindy is a tropical cyclone anymore. Obviously the Euro's crazy idea on it's 12z run yesterday of showing a borderline hurricane was overdone.

[imghttps://gifyu.com/images/IMG_7408.gif[/img]

True, but I also think there were some false assumptions on here that low 990s mb would be a near hurricane. It's currently at 996mb. Not hard to imagine that some sustained convection near the center could have brought it down to near 990.

It's all about the pressure gradient (rate of change of pressure over distance), not the lowest pressure. With a storm as spread out as Cindy, 996mb or even 990mb won't amount to much wind. But if Cindy was a tiny storm with a tight core, then 990mb might result in close to hurricane strength.

[wxman57]

I don't think Euro was showing a borderline hurricane. If the overall storm was smaller, then yes low 990s would most likely mean a weak hurricane/strong TS. Cindy is a large storm and would need lower pressure to be a hurricane.
Convection is finally firing up on the NW side of circulation...

I doubt Cindy is a tropical cyclone anymore. Obviously the Euro's crazy idea on it's 12z run yesterday of showing a borderline hurricane was overdone.


https://gifyu.com/images/IMG_7408.gif

I plotted the 12Z Euro wind field and it had peak winds 50 kts NW of the center at Cindy's strongest. Gradient...

[Rocketman]

The waterspout in Biloxi crossed 90, north into North Biloxi, into the Woolmarket area, where I live, where the wife is (I'm at Stennis). Stayed on the phone with her through it all. Apparently it went right up Hwy 605, a quarter mile to our west. She's ok.

[Steve]

I think that may be about it for Cindy.
LLC is running over strong vort at 500mb and higher.
ULL's sinking air is inhibiting any updrafts that could fire off convection.
On top of that, there is now a strong thermal inversion in the boundary layer just below the warm core.
Cindy is drying up at an early age.

G,

You're like the most technical poster on this site. However, you will end up having been wrong on this by jumping that gun. There are currently and have been numerous tornado warnings across the MS Gulf Coast today. FL and AL are going to get inundated. And the convection is refiring around the center, possibly the most we've seen on the west and NW sides to date. Cindy ain't done yet.

[1900hurricane]

I'm not surprised to see all of these tornadoes/waterspouts considering the low level shear of in the 12Z KILX sounding. 436 m**2/s**2 of 0-1 km helicity will do that.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This should be called subtropical storm IMO. Naked swirl, dying convection displaced well to the east. Amazing that this is only 200 some miles south of LA coast and almost everyone south of I-10 is dry. Kind of get how people feel up in the northeast when they have that big noreaster and get completely dry slotted.

Dry south of I-10 are you kidding me. I'm in Panama City and have had over 4 inches of rain. Plenty of other people south of I-10 have had that much if not more.

Was talking about south Louisiana.

[WeatherGuesser]

Latest WPC map shows a drop from over 4" to around 2" for much of KY, but tolakram appears to be in the 4+ area now.