ATL: JOSE - Models

[Ken711]

06z GFS landfall Outer Banks, NC and VA Beach.

[BYG Jacob]

just wait for the .. it wont be strong because of the SST's posts coming soon... lol

Which is stupid, because SSTs are warm enough to support Jose.

[jlauderdal]

just wait for the .. it wont be strong because of the SST's posts coming soon... lol

Which is stupid, because SSTs are warm enough to support Jose.

but irma caused a bunch of upwelling and the clippr model says its going out to sea and the local weather person in idaho said the trough coming in from siberia is pushing it ots

[SouthDadeFish]

The good news for FL right now is that zero of the 00Z Euro ensembles track Jose over FL. I see only 1 06Z GEFS member over FL. So the UKMET track is definitely an outlier right now. I wouldn't totally discredit it, but I am very skeptical of it.

[JtSmarts]

06z GFS landfall Outer Banks, NC and VA Beach.

Looks very similar to some of the early runs for Irma.

[Powellrm]

It seems as though the UKMET knows something that we don't know so far this year with both storms.

[Hurricaneman]

The good news for FL right now is that zero of the 00Z Euro ensembles track Jose over FL. I see only 1 06Z GEFS member over FL. So the UKMET track is definitely an outlier right now. I wouldn't totally discredit it, but I am very skeptical of it.

Th UKMET basically nailed Irma so we certainly can't be skeptical and wouldn't be surprised if a few models join it, even the Euro's op run last night even tells me this

[RL3AO]

The good news for FL right now is that zero of the 00Z Euro ensembles track Jose over FL. I see only 1 06Z GEFS member over FL. So the UKMET track is definitely an outlier right now. I wouldn't totally discredit it, but I am very skeptical of it.

Th UKMET basically nailed Irma so we certainly can't be skeptical and wouldn't be surprised if a few models join it, even the Euro's op run last night even tells me this

We'll have to see if the Euro trends further west over time. Let's not forget that the Euro did even better with Irma than the UKMET, and it brings it closer to Bermuda.

[BYG Jacob]

just wait for the .. it wont be strong because of the SST's posts coming soon... lol

Which is stupid, because SSTs are warm enough to support Jose.

but irma caused a bunch of upwelling and the clippr model says its going out to sea and the local weather person in idaho said the trough coming in from siberia is pushing it ots

Upwelling has been brought up multiple times, and I have yet to see it have any real effect on a system so far. Storms are usually far enough apart that whatever water a storm upwells gets just as hot by the time the next one rolls through.

[lovingseason2013]

How come no one ever posts the models here in the models forum, or are they somewhere else? Thanks

[crm6360]

We'll have to see if the Euro trends further west over time. Let's not forget that the Euro did even better with Irma than the UKMET, and it brings it closer to Bermuda.

That's quite a spread between Florida and Bermuda - but that's 6 days out at least right? Surprised nobody cares to post the images here.

[GlennOBX]

We'll have to see if the Euro trends further west over time. Let's not forget that the Euro did even better with Irma than the UKMET, and it brings it closer to Bermuda.

That's quite a spread between Florida and Bermuda - but that's 6 days out at least right? Surprised nobody cares to post the images here.

As was previously pointed out, several of the members who usually post model runs, etc. live in Florida, and may not have time to post runs now.

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I think timing is key on whether it catches the ex-Irma trough. If it hits the trough, it should be OTS (albeit a Bermuda threat). If it doesn't catch it, then it just inches up and the Great Lakes trough on 9/18ish is next - and that could turn it in.

[Ken711]

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2017

Jose is fighting 25 knots of northeasterly shear this morning
according to the UW-CIMSS analysis. A new blowup of deep convection
over the center overnight is helping to maintain the satellite-based
current intensity estimates, with TAFB and CPHC coming in at 5.0
while SAB had 4.5 and ADT gave 4.6. Have maintained the intensity at
90 kt for this advisory. A 0826z SSMI pass and an 1118z SSMIS pass
were quite helpful in determining the analysis position.

The analyzed motion for 12z was about 330/12, but Jose should begin
trending more northward over the next few hours, if it hasn't
already. There is little change to the overall forecast philosophy,
as Jose completes a slow anticyclonic loop over open waters for the
next 72 hours. The rather odd forecast track is the result of a
mid-level high to the east of Jose which will build south of Jose in
24 hours, then west of Jose in about 48 hours, and north of Jose
between days 3 and 4. The guidance initially showed this would be a
rather tight loop, but has opened it up considerably in the past
few runs with the GFS and consensus models beginning to lean toward
the ECMWF idea. Have adjusted the forecast track to be closer to
the TVCN. By days 4 and 5, Jose should track toward the west-
northwest with a bit faster forward motion as the aforementioned
mid-level high strengthens to the northeast of Jose.

Northerly shear should continue to affect the hurricane for the next
couple of days, although there are some differences in the guidance
about how strong this shear will be. Have maintained the trend of
the previous intensity forecast showing gradual weakening for the
next few days. Jose will likely also cross its own wake between days
3 and 4, which is a little later than previously expected with the
larger loop depicted in the forecast track. This forecast maintains
modest re-intensification at days 4 and 5 as some of the guidance
shows the shear relaxing somewhat and the SSTs will be quite warm,
although confidence is quite low.

[WeatherEmperor]

This afternoons 12z UKMET has Jose landfalling in West Palm Beach.



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[lando]

This afternoons 12z UKMET has Jose landfalling in West Palm Beach.


What's the strength ukm shows?
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[AxaltaRacing24]

This afternoons 12z UKMET has Jose landfalling in West Palm Beach.

You might want to close your eyes for this one but it shows below 940 I'm pretty sure.
What's the strength ukm shows?
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[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone have a way of seeing the spaghetti plots for Hurricane Jeanne (2004)?

[TheStormExpert]

This afternoons 12z UKMET has Jose landfalling in West Palm Beach.



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Jeez!! The UKMET is surely sticking to its idea.

[BYG Jacob]

If the UKMET verifies Jose will also be significantly stronger given how favorable the conditions in the Bahamas are.