ATL: IRMA - Models

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Patrick99
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#141 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:57 am

gatorcane wrote:00Z Euro animation. Quite an epic track if this verifies. Look at the bend SW east of the Lesser Antilles. Pretty remarkable:

Image


*That* track screams South Florida or Keys major hurricane, should it verify. Guess we shouldn't be lulled into complacency by the invest's recent lifting NW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#142 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:11 am

Patrick99 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:00Z Euro animation. Quite an epic track if this verifies. Look at the bend SW east of the Lesser Antilles. Pretty remarkable:

Image


*That* track screams South Florida or Keys major hurricane, should it verify. Guess we shouldn't be lulled into complacency by the invest's recent lifting NW.
should it verify which is highly unlikely..someday one of these models in fantasy land will but until it does being in the bullseye beyond 120h is a good thing
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#143 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:21 am

That EURO run is like Ike, but a couple of degrees further East with the WSW/SW movement. Thankfully for now in the long range, but if this starts showing up in the medium term then we should get worried. However, CycoloneEye and our island friends need to heed these runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#144 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:23 am

oh and what in hell is that in the GOM at the end of the run?? Talk about salt to a wound.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#145 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:25 am

The CMC ensembles even show the Western Atlantic ridge "nosing" SW towards the Bahamas in the long-range (even though the CMC op doesn't really show this yet):
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#146 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:31 am

i wait untill after long weekend see models show
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#147 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:42 am

Hopefully this doesn't pull an Ike 2.0 and somehow end up in the Gulf of Mexico. Wasn't that storm originally forecasted to threaten S. FL prior to its SW dive into Cuba?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#148 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:43 am

IKE was actually supposed to recurve through the Bahamas but the models kept moving west. Then South Florida was under the gun for a few days and eventually we know what happened in Cuba/Gulf. I recall the GFDL at the time was the first model to show the WSW turn into Cuba. Even the ECMWF was showing recurve in the Bahamas east of Florida for several days until we got closer to the event.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#149 Postby Portastorm » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:46 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Hopefully this doesn't pull an Ike 2.0 and somehow end up in the Gulf of Mexico. Wasn't that storm originally forecasted to threaten S. FL prior to its SW dive into Cuba?


I bet I could speak for most of Texas and Louisiana when I say ... keep whatever develops the hell away from us!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#150 Postby Blinhart » Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:03 am

Portastorm wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Hopefully this doesn't pull an Ike 2.0 and somehow end up in the Gulf of Mexico. Wasn't that storm originally forecasted to threaten S. FL prior to its SW dive into Cuba?


I bet I could speak for most of Texas and Louisiana when I say ... keep whatever develops the hell away from us!


Totally agree, I don't think my nerves could take another 2 weeks of anxiety.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#151 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:05 am

GFS continues to come in weaker than before. Nobody should be surprised by this

Image


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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#152 Postby blp » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:09 am

gatorcane wrote:IKE was actually supposed to recurve through the Bahamas but the models kept moving west. Then South Florida was under the gun for a few days and eventually we know what happened in Cuba/Gulf. I recall the GFDL at the time was the first model to show the WSW turn into Cuba. Even the ECMWF was showing recurve in the Bahamas east of Florida for several days until we got closer to the event.


I remember that situation well. The GFDL was a top tier model back in those days and was very good at sniffing out certain patterns. I remember it was first to show Katrina with a SW dive right before it made landfall in Florida when the others did not show that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#153 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:12 am

Intensity aside, up to 132 hours there seems to be pretty good continuity of track between the GFS and EURO. GFS seems to lag about 2 degrees further east but up to this point the models are in fair track agreement. Lets see if/where they begin to diverge here as the model continues to go out further in time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#154 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:14 am

We are still way out on this one...but I'm just looking at the major synoptic features:
Euro - Strong ridging and the ULL is lifting out at 240 hours - Yuck

CMC- Shows the weakness generally filling in (waiting on the new run) but much more affected by a large low over eastern Canada- Not great but a chance to lift out

GFS - Still waiting on the 12z but looks liek the low may be lifting out much quicker than either the CMC or Euro


General trend long range is this one needs to be watched carefully, but the setup look like US/Islands concern
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#155 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:15 am

Very interesting. At 144 hour, the GFS continues in lockstep with last nights EURO in showing this system beginning to further deepen AND with a push more to the WSW!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#156 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:16 am

Surprise surprise, the GFS is trending toward the Euro of stronger Atlantic ridging.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#157 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:20 am

NDG wrote:Surprise surprise, the GFS is trending toward the Euro of stronger Atlantic ridging.

Image
the gfs sofla hit is on the way... :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#158 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:22 am

Yep, at 162 hr.'s, both the GFS and EURO have this centered nearly at the identical point. Only key difference is that the GFS seems to keep the system quite weak (at about 1010mb). This is certainly a role reversal from over the years. I'm just impressed that there finally seems to be some ongoing similarities in forecast track. Not that this is a good thing for the N. Islands at all, but maybe these models are beginning to work out there kinks??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#159 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:24 am

jlauderdal wrote:
NDG wrote:Surprise surprise, the GFS is trending toward the Euro of stronger Atlantic ridging.

Image
the gfs sofla hit is on the way... :wink:


I'll only feel safe if the GFS begins to bomb out the system and show something like 914mb. S. Florida would be in the clear then :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#160 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:25 am

chaser1 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
NDG wrote:Surprise surprise, the GFS is trending toward the Euro of stronger Atlantic ridging.

Image
the gfs sofla hit is on the way... :wink:


I'll only feel safe if the GFS begins to bomb out the system and show something like 914mb. S. Florida would be in the clear then :ggreen:


im with you on that one...its worked for years so until proven otherwise
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