ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#141 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:44 pm

Looks like ssd has finally begun classification: T1.0 at 16.1 26.8
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#142 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:45 pm

Looks to be organized than it was this morning. Or at least it does not have a well defined COC.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#143 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:47 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
CFLHurricane wrote:
Definitely one for the books. The second half of the season is incoming with a warming MDR and better climo. I guess the second year after El Niño hypothesis is true after all!


Going into full La Niña mode it seems. Could get ugly now through 2018.

Imagine if the PDO crashes along with a weak Nina next season :double:


PDO crashes don't mean much unless it's for more than 6 months to a year since it's a long term variable. PDO from what I see, has minimal affects on the Atlantic hurricane season. See 2005, which was situated in a warm PDO regime.

La Nina conditions to take over and dominate is going to take a while to materialize since you'll need -0.5C averages @ Nino 3.4 for 5 tri monthlies and last week's average came in @ -0.1C. Best bet is neutral for now.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#144 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:55 pm

Cool neutral is the scariest to me. Seems to encourage both high numbers of storms AND favorable steering patterns for USA hits. Just anecdotal in my view but maybe a pro met can confirm or debunk.
1 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneMaster_PR
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 795
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 6:23 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#145 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:58 pm

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Convection is gradually increasing tonight. Looking good!
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#146 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:10 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:Cool neutral is the scariest to me. Seems to encourage both high numbers of storms AND favorable steering patterns for USA hits. Just anecdotal in my view but maybe a pro met can confirm or debunk.


If we go by the tri-monthlies, we're still technically in a warm-neutral entering a dead neutral. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
p1nheadlarry
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 672
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:42 pm
Location: SR County FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#147 Postby p1nheadlarry » Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:35 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:Cool neutral is the scariest to me. Seems to encourage both high numbers of storms AND favorable steering patterns for USA hits. Just anecdotal in my view but maybe a pro met can confirm or debunk.


NAO also might have something to do with it.
0 likes   
--;->#GoNoles--;->.

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#148 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:25 pm

how far will be leewards by Sunday?
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5300
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#149 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:40 pm

floridasun78 wrote:how far will be leewards by Sunday?


Maybe 888 miles for GFS less for HWRF haven't seen new Euro yet though
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#150 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:41 am

I think its safe to say we how a TC lol..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2079
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#151 Postby Blinhart » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:12 am

I think they might wait to pull the trigger until he gets past 30W unless they get enough obs from ships and buoys in the area
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Orlando
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 119
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:29 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#152 Postby Orlando » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:20 am

I'll be watching this one closely.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#153 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:35 am

Due t the building ridge, the stronger the system, the farther southwest it will go. This needs to stay weak or else we could have a major problem on our hands
2 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#154 Postby sma10 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:45 am

Alyono wrote:Due t the building ridge, the stronger the system, the farther southwest it will go. This needs to stay weak or else we could have a major problem on our hands


I've been wondering this myself. If it ends up being even a little stronger than the already-strong Euro, do you think this could actually sneak far enough south to enter and traverse the Caribbean under Hispaniola?
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#155 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:53 am

sma10 wrote:
Alyono wrote:Due t the building ridge, the stronger the system, the farther southwest it will go. This needs to stay weak or else we could have a major problem on our hands


I've been wondering this myself. If it ends up being even a little stronger than the already-strong Euro, do you think this could actually sneak far enough south to enter and traverse the Caribbean under Hispaniola?


don't think it gets that far south. But could easily be enough to bring Puerto Rico in play for a landfall
0 likes   

User avatar
beoumont
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 473
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 4:13 pm
Location: East Central Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#156 Postby beoumont » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:15 am

Image

This twit(ter) just so reminds me of politicians who use incomplete facts to peddle fear; and leave the most important fact out for convenience of their argument.

In this case the phrase "track TOWARDS the east coast" implies the likelihood of landfall, to the casual tropical weather viewer/layman. The truth is a vast majority of Cape Verde storms do NOT make landfall; it is only the exception that does. If the implication of the twit was true, Miami would not exist as a major city today. Fear mongering; or in the least, attention seeking, alarmist behavior of a competitive TV or internet business.

Although it is true the graphic showing the conglomerate of past hurricane tracks does show most recurving; the honest description would state "the bulk of members track towards a recurving path off the eastern seaboard."
Last edited by beoumont on Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:37 am, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes   
List of 79 tropical cyclones intercepted by Richard Horodner:
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2079
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#157 Postby Blinhart » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:22 am

beoumont wrote:Image

This twit(ter) just so reminds me of politicians who use incomplete facts to peddle fear; and leave the most important fact out for convenience of their argument.

In this case the phrase "track TOWARDS the east coast" implies the likelihood of landfall, to the casual tropical weather viewer/layman. The truth is a vast majority of Cape Verde storms do NOT make landfall; it is only the exception that does. If the implication of the twit was true, Miami would not exist as a major city today. Fear mongering; or in the least, attention seeking, alarmist behavior of a competitive TV or internet business.


I'm sorry to disagree with you, with what the models are showing, they are letting people know ahead of time that they need to be vigilant and not be caught by surprise.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#158 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:14 am

I think its fair enough to point out the risk to the E.seaboard with this one, I mean the risk is clearly there and he has backed it up with the ensembles.

Fair enough, most technically do end up recurving (just!) but given just 120hrs before Harvey came into land, alot of the models buried it as a weak TS into deep Mexico so we have a large range of error, and sadly IMO the error range is more likely to the west.

Also this is looking pretty good right now, decent convective coverage, wouldn't be surprised if they upgrade it today if it carries on looking like it is at the moment.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11490
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#159 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:22 am

Already cranking up.
Off-the-scale rain-rate tower firing off.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#160 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:58 am

Yeah it is looking good Gcane, I'm not sure what the inner circulation is looking like at the moment but it sure looks like its pretty much there in terms of formation at the moment. I'm expecting an upgrade pretty soon.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests