ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Looks like ssd has finally begun classification: T1.0 at 16.1 26.8
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Looks to be organized than it was this morning. Or at least it does not have a well defined COC.


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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:GeneratorPower wrote:CFLHurricane wrote:
Definitely one for the books. The second half of the season is incoming with a warming MDR and better climo. I guess the second year after El Niño hypothesis is true after all!
Going into full La Niña mode it seems. Could get ugly now through 2018.
Imagine if the PDO crashes along with a weak Nina next season
PDO crashes don't mean much unless it's for more than 6 months to a year since it's a long term variable. PDO from what I see, has minimal affects on the Atlantic hurricane season. See 2005, which was situated in a warm PDO regime.
La Nina conditions to take over and dominate is going to take a while to materialize since you'll need -0.5C averages @ Nino 3.4 for 5 tri monthlies and last week's average came in @ -0.1C. Best bet is neutral for now.
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- GeneratorPower
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Cool neutral is the scariest to me. Seems to encourage both high numbers of storms AND favorable steering patterns for USA hits. Just anecdotal in my view but maybe a pro met can confirm or debunk.
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- HurricaneMaster_PR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
Convection is gradually increasing tonight. Looking good!
Convection is gradually increasing tonight. Looking good!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
GeneratorPower wrote:Cool neutral is the scariest to me. Seems to encourage both high numbers of storms AND favorable steering patterns for USA hits. Just anecdotal in my view but maybe a pro met can confirm or debunk.
If we go by the tri-monthlies, we're still technically in a warm-neutral entering a dead neutral. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
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- p1nheadlarry
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
GeneratorPower wrote:Cool neutral is the scariest to me. Seems to encourage both high numbers of storms AND favorable steering patterns for USA hits. Just anecdotal in my view but maybe a pro met can confirm or debunk.
NAO also might have something to do with it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
floridasun78 wrote:how far will be leewards by Sunday?
Maybe 888 miles for GFS less for HWRF haven't seen new Euro yet though
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
I think its safe to say we how a TC lol..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
I think they might wait to pull the trigger until he gets past 30W unless they get enough obs from ships and buoys in the area
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Due t the building ridge, the stronger the system, the farther southwest it will go. This needs to stay weak or else we could have a major problem on our hands
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Alyono wrote:Due t the building ridge, the stronger the system, the farther southwest it will go. This needs to stay weak or else we could have a major problem on our hands
I've been wondering this myself. If it ends up being even a little stronger than the already-strong Euro, do you think this could actually sneak far enough south to enter and traverse the Caribbean under Hispaniola?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
sma10 wrote:Alyono wrote:Due t the building ridge, the stronger the system, the farther southwest it will go. This needs to stay weak or else we could have a major problem on our hands
I've been wondering this myself. If it ends up being even a little stronger than the already-strong Euro, do you think this could actually sneak far enough south to enter and traverse the Caribbean under Hispaniola?
don't think it gets that far south. But could easily be enough to bring Puerto Rico in play for a landfall
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

This twit(ter) just so reminds me of politicians who use incomplete facts to peddle fear; and leave the most important fact out for convenience of their argument.
In this case the phrase "track TOWARDS the east coast" implies the likelihood of landfall, to the casual tropical weather viewer/layman. The truth is a vast majority of Cape Verde storms do NOT make landfall; it is only the exception that does. If the implication of the twit was true, Miami would not exist as a major city today. Fear mongering; or in the least, attention seeking, alarmist behavior of a competitive TV or internet business.
Although it is true the graphic showing the conglomerate of past hurricane tracks does show most recurving; the honest description would state "the bulk of members track towards a recurving path off the eastern seaboard."
Last edited by beoumont on Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:37 am, edited 3 times in total.
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List of 79 tropical cyclones intercepted by Richard Horodner:
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
beoumont wrote:
This twit(ter) just so reminds me of politicians who use incomplete facts to peddle fear; and leave the most important fact out for convenience of their argument.
In this case the phrase "track TOWARDS the east coast" implies the likelihood of landfall, to the casual tropical weather viewer/layman. The truth is a vast majority of Cape Verde storms do NOT make landfall; it is only the exception that does. If the implication of the twit was true, Miami would not exist as a major city today. Fear mongering; or in the least, attention seeking, alarmist behavior of a competitive TV or internet business.
I'm sorry to disagree with you, with what the models are showing, they are letting people know ahead of time that they need to be vigilant and not be caught by surprise.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
I think its fair enough to point out the risk to the E.seaboard with this one, I mean the risk is clearly there and he has backed it up with the ensembles.
Fair enough, most technically do end up recurving (just!) but given just 120hrs before Harvey came into land, alot of the models buried it as a weak TS into deep Mexico so we have a large range of error, and sadly IMO the error range is more likely to the west.
Also this is looking pretty good right now, decent convective coverage, wouldn't be surprised if they upgrade it today if it carries on looking like it is at the moment.
Fair enough, most technically do end up recurving (just!) but given just 120hrs before Harvey came into land, alot of the models buried it as a weak TS into deep Mexico so we have a large range of error, and sadly IMO the error range is more likely to the west.
Also this is looking pretty good right now, decent convective coverage, wouldn't be surprised if they upgrade it today if it carries on looking like it is at the moment.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Already cranking up.
Off-the-scale rain-rate tower firing off.

Off-the-scale rain-rate tower firing off.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Yeah it is looking good Gcane, I'm not sure what the inner circulation is looking like at the moment but it sure looks like its pretty much there in terms of formation at the moment. I'm expecting an upgrade pretty soon.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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