ATL: TEN - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z NAM showing a pretty vigorous VORT (albeit stretched) just north of the NE Lesser Antilles at 84 hours:

[ronjon]

Getting pretty tight track agreement on the SFWMD plot of model runs for the 5-7 day timeframe so if something develops.....

[HurricaneEric]

12z...

Interesting... So if this does hold on after the initial wind shear blast, there's pretty decent consensus this stays above the islands. Definitely needs to be something to monitor.

[WeatherEmperor]

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[gatorcane]

12Z GFS looks a little stronger than 06Z out through 66 hours so far.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS 12z trending stronger at 66 hours

[WeatherEmperor]

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[gatorcane]

12Z GFS going with development of 91L which shears 92L.

[N2FSU]

GFS 12z trending stronger at 66 hours

Yep, and shows 93L behind it weaker. The stronger 92L is approaching the TUTT, the greater it's chance of survival running the gauntlet.

[SFLcane]

neither look in a favorable environment if you asked me..

[Hurricaneman]

neither look in a favorable environment if you asked me..

It's expected between 72 and 96 hrs

[N2FSU]

+102 hr; stronger and further south. Just off the northern coast of PR

[sma10]

There seems to be a SW trend on the models, beginning to wonder if this won't dive into Hispaniola a la Debby (2000). Be very interested to see UK in a few minutes to see if it's still an outlier to the NE.

[SouthFLTropics]

92L is fighting two things here. The TUTT as well as restricted inflow from across the mountains of Hispaniola.

[SouthFLTropics]

There seems to be a SW trend on the models, beginning to wonder if this won't dive into Hispaniola a la Debby (2000). Be very interested to see UK in a few minutes to see if it's still an outlier to the NE.

I think it's about to pull a Debby kill itself over Eastern Cuba. Didn't gain enough latitude to avoid the mountains.

[SFLcane]

neither look in a favorable environment if you asked me..

It's expected between 72 and 96 hrs

mean not favorable until perhaps western caribbean whatever it is of 91L moving into CA. I dont see anything favorable for either system for 3-5 days if there anything left

[WeatherEmperor]

Dont jump out of your seats. Its just the Canadian.....




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[gatorcane]

UKMET doubling down and has shifted south:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.2N 51.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2017 60 16.8N 52.8W 1010 33
1200UTC 19.08.2017 72 17.3N 56.6W 1009 34
0000UTC 20.08.2017 84 17.6N 60.0W 1008 33
1200UTC 20.08.2017 96 17.9N 63.3W 1007 37
0000UTC 21.08.2017 108 18.7N 66.3W 1005 44
1200UTC 21.08.2017 120 19.5N 69.1W 1001 48
0000UTC 22.08.2017 132 20.5N 72.0W 997 53
1200UTC 22.08.2017 144 21.1N 74.2W 998 54

[WeatherEmperor]

Some more Canadian fun:




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[AtlanticWind]

One thing I've noticed is the gap between 91L and 92L has widened some, as 91 like seems to be moving
a little faster. Think that could aid development some.