ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

I'm telling you guys 50 miles in this case is going to make a huge difference between a possible hurricane and no redevelopment due to Hispaniola and Cuba

The 0Z guidance has shifted north some, this may be able to stay north of the islands...I still think that a weak/moderate TS into S.Fla/Keys is the most likely scenario but a hurricane isn't out of the realm of possibilities if the shear isn't as bad a forecast.

anymore shifts north then the southern Florida peninsula like Miami to Palm Beach may have to keep an eye on this, but it depends on how the ridge is oriented or if there's a trough like the Euro that recurves in the GOM and throws it back into Florida

Possibly up to martin county but only as a TW

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[Hammy]

Cloud motion tells me there's little to no surface circulation left, so this one may be done for at least for the next several days, depending on whether the vorticity can hold together.

[AutoPenalti]

Cloud motion tells me there's little to no surface circulation left, so this one may be done for at least for the next several days, depending on whether the vorticity can hold together.

Umm, what?

[Hammy]

Cloud motion tells me there's little to no surface circulation left, so this one may be done for at least for the next several days, depending on whether the vorticity can hold together.

Umm, what?

It seems I posted that in the wrong thread, I was talking about 91L.

[AutoPenalti]

Cloud motion tells me there's little to no surface circulation left, so this one may be done for at least for the next several days, depending on whether the vorticity can hold together.

Umm, what?

It seems I posted that in the wrong thread, I was talking about 91L.

Ah! I see, I was about to say that maybe I was just going crazy with seeing a vigorous cric with 92L and growing consensus for intensification.

[Hammy]

Umm, what?

It seems I posted that in the wrong thread, I was talking about 91L.

Ah! I see, I was about to say that maybe I was just going crazy with seeing a vigorous cric with 92L and growing consensus for intensification.

edit: I was referring to the right one originally--92L is the eastern one and seems to be nothing more than a mid-level circulation and surface wave axis at this point. Having these so close together is getting confusing at this late hour.

[EquusStorm]

My mother lives twenty minutes from the AL coast out of the surge zone, and I'm going to be in Vancouver the weekend that this might come fairly close. Hoping it doesn't because I'm gonna be upset if I miss it. I was down there for Cindy and witnessed a tornado and amazing coastal flooding...

[USTropics]

First visible image of the day, you can really see the trailing SAL plume impacting 92L. Convection will remain minimal on the eastern side of the vorticity for now.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

First visible image of the day, you can really see the trailing SAL plume impacting 92L. Convection will remain minimal on the eastern side of the vorticity for now.

I don't see this developing anytime soon it might get going later on near the Bahamas this will need to be watched regardless

[Nimbus]

SAL appears to be keeping 92L weak and west for now.
7 day forecast errors are typically 300 miles or more and some models are bringing a trough into play for the GOM recurve.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

SAL appears to be keeping 92L weak and west for now.
7 day forecast errors are typically 300 miles or more and some models are bringing a trough into play for the GOM recurve.

I think a recurve is likely with this system but I may be wrong

[jlauderdal]

SAL appears to be keeping 92L weak and west for now.
7 day forecast errors are typically 300 miles or more and some models are bringing a trough into play for the GOM recurve.

I think a recurve is likely with this system but I may be wrong

what leads you to believe it will recurve east of the united states?

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

SAL appears to be keeping 92L weak and west for now.
7 day forecast errors are typically 300 miles or more and some models are bringing a trough into play for the GOM recurve.

I think a recurve is likely with this system but I may be wrong

what leads you to believe it will recurve east of the united states?

Well it depends on timing but if that trough does indeed drop down while this system is in the Bahamas it would likely stall then get steered OTS sooner than later but we have to wait because this pattern is very complex at the moment

[jlauderdal]

I think a recurve is likely with this system but I may be wrong

what leads you to believe it will recurve east of the united states?

Well it depends on timing but if that trough does indeed drop down while this system is in the Bahamas it would likely stall then get steered OTS sooner than later but we have to wait because this pattern is very complex at the moment

the steering flow and timing seem clear to get it past the bahama chain and even sofla, lets see how it plays out, systems have been known to get hung up around the mona passage although the ridging looks stout to keep things progressive

[Aric Dunn]

Despite the Sal is actually maintaining convection fairly well. has a pretty clear circ and modest convection. would not take much more convection to see a TC out of this sooner rather than later.

[otowntiger]

I think a recurve is likely with this system but I may be wrong

what leads you to believe it will recurve east of the united states?

Well it depends on timing but if that trough does indeed drop down while this system is in the Bahamas it would likely stall then get steered OTS sooner than later but we have to wait because this pattern is very complex at the moment

. It really won't matter where it goes if its nothing by the time it gets there. Current trends and models say pretty much nothing of significance will come out of this system or any of the others for that matter. Good news but surprising given all the disturbances that are popping up and all the hub bub initially.

[jlauderdal]

what leads you to believe it will recurve east of the united states?

Well it depends on timing but if that trough does indeed drop down while this system is in the Bahamas it would likely stall then get steered OTS sooner than later but we have to wait because this pattern is very complex at the moment

. It really won't matter where it goes if its nothing by the time it gets there. Current trends and models say pretty much nothing of significance will come out of this system or any of the others for that matter. Good news but surprising given all the disturbances that are popping up and all the hub bub initially.

I have low confidence with the models ability this year for intensity, i posted yesterday i suspect a big blow up in the gulf lets see what today brings

[AutoPenalti]

what leads you to believe it will recurve east of the united states?

Well it depends on timing but if that trough does indeed drop down while this system is in the Bahamas it would likely stall then get steered OTS sooner than later but we have to wait because this pattern is very complex at the moment

. It really won't matter where it goes if its nothing by the time it gets there. Current trends and models say pretty much nothing of significance will come out of this system or any of the others for that matter. Good news but surprising given all the disturbances that are popping up and all the hub bub initially.

The fact that models are continuing to show nothing when there's a developing TD with 91L (and 92L) means that they are doing horrible with intensity forecasts and shouldn't be followed as such. Track wise they have done well.

[jlauderdal]

Well it depends on timing but if that trough does indeed drop down while this system is in the Bahamas it would likely stall then get steered OTS sooner than later but we have to wait because this pattern is very complex at the moment

. It really won't matter where it goes if its nothing by the time it gets there. Current trends and models say pretty much nothing of significance will come out of this system or any of the others for that matter. Good news but surprising given all the disturbances that are popping up and all the hub bub initially.

The fact that models are continuing to show nothing when there's a developing TD with 91L means that they are doing horrible with intensity forecasts and shouldn't be followed as such. Track wise they have done well.

i agree with your reasoning..lets see how the system deals with the upcoming TUTT

[SouthFLTropics]

Good morning fellow S2K'ers. Considering the SAL that 92L is dealing with I would say that it looks pretty good this morning. I'm not sure what the models are seeing in particular that is restricting development in the SE Bahamas. If the storm was there right now then surely it would not survive because the ULL that is currently sweeping across Hispaniola is blowing up a ton of wind shear across the region. Based on water vapor you can clearly see that ULL backing off to the West and SW. By the time 92L gets there the ULL should be gone. My best guess would be that once 92L passes the Mona Passage it should be game on for conditions by the time it gets there. We shall see. I personally feel this is one of the more treacherous invests that we have watched in quite some time. The circulation seems much more vigorous than Hermine last year.