ATL: HARVEY - Models

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Kingarabian
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Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)

#141 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 13, 2017 2:37 pm

EPS has up to 15 members showing development; 30% chance of a TS in the NE Caribbean within the next 5 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#142 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 13, 2017 2:40 pm

91L or not, the European, GFS and CMC alliance all have a very strong system near the Bahamas at 240 hours (10 days from 7am this morning).

CMC is in the Bahamas moving WNW with a trailing system about 3 days behind it. Note: It merges 91L and the other close system so this is another trailing storm that moves much faster across the sea. Dangerous setup there as it's unclear if 91L (H storm by then) will hit Florida, stall or curve. CMC showing the possibility of a scattershot burst of 2 storms in the same week roughly on the same path.

ECMWF is just off the tip of South Florida. Looks like on that trajectory and what it's doing that it would possibly be a STRONG NE Gulf hit later on. Trough coming down is oriented SW-NE and runs from Iowa across KS into New Mexico. At 500mb, eastern North America is dominated by High Pressure with a slight alley between New Orleans and Jacksonville. It's the difference between red and orange on the anomalies. So that's not much. Stay tuned to the upper pattern

GFS is just NE of the Bahamas roughly on a recurve that will take it close to Cape Cod, Massachusetts. GFS almost always starts out weak and east. It's not weak in this case, but it's the most east of the 3. This tells me this is a potentially super dangerous system. We have until the middle of next week to watch, but it's going to be an interesting 10-12 days ahead for everyone in the Southeast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#143 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Aug 13, 2017 2:49 pm

:uarrow: Yeah I agree for sure. Tropics cranking up. Right on cue as we are just getting into the start of the meat of the season!!
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#144 Postby StormTracker » Sun Aug 13, 2017 2:49 pm

tolakram wrote:Good question, I don't have a strong opinion either way. It's interesting the GFS did the dual vort dance and now we're possible talking about two storms.

Image

Yaaay, the GFS finally did something credible! Question: do these upgrades continue to be tweaked during each season, or do we have to wait till next season's upgrade AGAIN?
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Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)

#145 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 13, 2017 2:56 pm

what you all see nhc not on boat this area yet ??? closeer and 91l
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Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)

#146 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Aug 13, 2017 2:58 pm

Yeah, the fact that our most dependable models have suddenly jumped all over this feature out ahead of 91L is a telling sign to me.

The SAL surge coming in from behind 91L possibly is the reason for this. I will be really curious on the next set of runs later this evening. These next runs, if they consistently show organization with this wave ahead of 91L, then that would be enough evidence for me and should also the NHC for sure!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#147 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 13, 2017 2:58 pm

StormTracker wrote:Yaaay, the GFS finally did something credible! Question: do these upgrades continue to be tweaked during each season, or do we have to wait till next season's upgrade AGAIN?


No. Changes are only made after extremely careful testing and verification tests.
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Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)

#148 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:05 pm

I was thinking this wave in front of 91L would have difficulty with the SAL but might clear it out for 91L.

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Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)

#149 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:07 pm

12z Euro control run also develops it and takes it into South Padre Island, TX in about 2 weeks.
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Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)

#150 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:15 pm

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: That 588DM gap looks like a turn toward the FL Panhandle if you extrapolate in the Operational run
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Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)

#151 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:19 pm

floridasun78 wrote:what you all see nhc not on boat this area yet ??? closeer and 91l


Its Sunday, only working half day.
There is more moisture down near the ITCZ but it is more difficult to predict the timing of development with meaningful long range landfall predictions.
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Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)

#152 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:28 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:I was thinking this wave in front of 91L would have difficulty with the SAL but might clear it out for 91L.

Image


not what happens with SAL surges. The trailing wave blocks the SAL from affecting the lead wave. The lead wave clears out the SAL only if the lead wave is trailing a SAL outbreak
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Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)

#153 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:35 pm

18z GFS at 30 hours now shows two separate systems.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#154 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:38 pm

GFS really having a tough time picking which system to develop out to 48 hours on the 18z run.
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Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)

#155 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:41 pm

18Z GFS dissipates this in about 2 days
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#156 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:41 pm

massive east shift already in the 18Z GFS. This is probably an out to sea run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#157 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:43 pm

The GFS says the thunderstorms that directly lead to a TS should be forming right about...................................now.

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Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)

#158 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:44 pm

Alyono wrote:18Z GFS dissipates this in about 2 days


Maybe not.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#159 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:46 pm

Sigh.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#160 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:49 pm

run is junk. Too much feedback going on there
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