ATL: HARVEY - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15979
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)
EPS has up to 15 members showing development; 30% chance of a TS in the NE Caribbean within the next 5 days.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
91L or not, the European, GFS and CMC alliance all have a very strong system near the Bahamas at 240 hours (10 days from 7am this morning).
CMC is in the Bahamas moving WNW with a trailing system about 3 days behind it. Note: It merges 91L and the other close system so this is another trailing storm that moves much faster across the sea. Dangerous setup there as it's unclear if 91L (H storm by then) will hit Florida, stall or curve. CMC showing the possibility of a scattershot burst of 2 storms in the same week roughly on the same path.
ECMWF is just off the tip of South Florida. Looks like on that trajectory and what it's doing that it would possibly be a STRONG NE Gulf hit later on. Trough coming down is oriented SW-NE and runs from Iowa across KS into New Mexico. At 500mb, eastern North America is dominated by High Pressure with a slight alley between New Orleans and Jacksonville. It's the difference between red and orange on the anomalies. So that's not much. Stay tuned to the upper pattern
GFS is just NE of the Bahamas roughly on a recurve that will take it close to Cape Cod, Massachusetts. GFS almost always starts out weak and east. It's not weak in this case, but it's the most east of the 3. This tells me this is a potentially super dangerous system. We have until the middle of next week to watch, but it's going to be an interesting 10-12 days ahead for everyone in the Southeast.
CMC is in the Bahamas moving WNW with a trailing system about 3 days behind it. Note: It merges 91L and the other close system so this is another trailing storm that moves much faster across the sea. Dangerous setup there as it's unclear if 91L (H storm by then) will hit Florida, stall or curve. CMC showing the possibility of a scattershot burst of 2 storms in the same week roughly on the same path.
ECMWF is just off the tip of South Florida. Looks like on that trajectory and what it's doing that it would possibly be a STRONG NE Gulf hit later on. Trough coming down is oriented SW-NE and runs from Iowa across KS into New Mexico. At 500mb, eastern North America is dominated by High Pressure with a slight alley between New Orleans and Jacksonville. It's the difference between red and orange on the anomalies. So that's not much. Stay tuned to the upper pattern
GFS is just NE of the Bahamas roughly on a recurve that will take it close to Cape Cod, Massachusetts. GFS almost always starts out weak and east. It's not weak in this case, but it's the most east of the 3. This tells me this is a potentially super dangerous system. We have until the middle of next week to watch, but it's going to be an interesting 10-12 days ahead for everyone in the Southeast.
4 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

1 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- StormTracker
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2903
- Age: 59
- Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:06 am
- Location: Quail Heights(Redlands), FL.
ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
tolakram wrote:Good question, I don't have a strong opinion either way. It's interesting the GFS did the dual vort dance and now we're possible talking about two storms.
Yaaay, the GFS finally did something credible! Question: do these upgrades continue to be tweaked during each season, or do we have to wait till next season's upgrade AGAIN?
0 likes
Something's wrong when you regret, things that haven't happened yet!
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)
what you all see nhc not on boat this area yet ??? closeer and 91l
0 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)
Yeah, the fact that our most dependable models have suddenly jumped all over this feature out ahead of 91L is a telling sign to me.
The SAL surge coming in from behind 91L possibly is the reason for this. I will be really curious on the next set of runs later this evening. These next runs, if they consistently show organization with this wave ahead of 91L, then that would be enough evidence for me and should also the NHC for sure!!
The SAL surge coming in from behind 91L possibly is the reason for this. I will be really curious on the next set of runs later this evening. These next runs, if they consistently show organization with this wave ahead of 91L, then that would be enough evidence for me and should also the NHC for sure!!
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
StormTracker wrote:Yaaay, the GFS finally did something credible! Question: do these upgrades continue to be tweaked during each season, or do we have to wait till next season's upgrade AGAIN?
No. Changes are only made after extremely careful testing and verification tests.
1 likes
- tropicwatch
- Category 5
- Posts: 3383
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
- Location: Panama City Florida
- Contact:
Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)
I was thinking this wave in front of 91L would have difficulty with the SAL but might clear it out for 91L.


0 likes
Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
- South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4224
- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)
12z Euro control run also develops it and takes it into South Padre Island, TX in about 2 weeks.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)




0 likes
Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)
floridasun78 wrote:what you all see nhc not on boat this area yet ??? closeer and 91l
Its Sunday, only working half day.
There is more moisture down near the ITCZ but it is more difficult to predict the timing of development with meaningful long range landfall predictions.
0 likes
Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)
panamatropicwatch wrote:I was thinking this wave in front of 91L would have difficulty with the SAL but might clear it out for 91L.
not what happens with SAL surges. The trailing wave blocks the SAL from affecting the lead wave. The lead wave clears out the SAL only if the lead wave is trailing a SAL outbreak
2 likes
- FLpanhandle91
- Category 5
- Posts: 1033
- Age: 34
- Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
- Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL
Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)
18z GFS at 30 hours now shows two separate systems.
0 likes
- FLpanhandle91
- Category 5
- Posts: 1033
- Age: 34
- Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
- Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
GFS really having a tough time picking which system to develop out to 48 hours on the 18z run.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
massive east shift already in the 18Z GFS. This is probably an out to sea run
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
The GFS says the thunderstorms that directly lead to a TS should be forming right about...................................now.


0 likes
Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance (west of 91L)
Alyono wrote:18Z GFS dissipates this in about 2 days
Maybe not.

0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests