ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Alyono]

If the next few model runs continue the current trend I'd say the chances of this developing are about 10% at best. What organization existed a few days ago is gone and it seems the energy ended up too far south to make it into the Gulf at this point. Expecting NHC to lower the chances later.

add about 60% to your number. You CANNOT go off of the GFS when it is performing so poorly.

If anything, the chance of development is increasing tonight given this unexpected organization

[Hammy]

If the next few model runs continue the current trend I'd say the chances of this developing are about 10% at best. What organization existed a few days ago is gone and it seems the energy ended up too far south to make it into the Gulf at this point. Expecting NHC to lower the chances later.

add about 60% to your number. You CANNOT go off of the GFS when it is performing so poorly.

If anything, the chance of development is increasing tonight given this unexpected organization

My doubt is with the latitude--the earlier runs had it farther north to start with so it boils down to how quickly it can organize before it runs into land--and I haven't written it off yet, but if it doesn't organize into something more in the next 12 hours or start headed further north, and the models continue trending towards a southern track, development won't seem as likely at that point.

[Alyono]

GFS, Canadian, NAVGEM, and ECMWF are all developing this system into at least a tropical storm in the Bay of Campeche now

[tropicwatch]

It has been awhile since we have seen this system maintain convection overnight.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

It has been awhile since we have seen this system maintain convection overnight.

Is this just enhanced convection or is this the Actually LLC firing convection ?? It looks like it's finally organizing

[GCANE]

Looks like shear will likely wipe this out over the weekend.

Dude what shear??? CONDITIONS ARE GONNA BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPEMENT STARTING MONDAY

This shear

[Alyono]

It's the GFS. Zero weight

It's also moving into an area of significantly lower shear (due to a slowing of the low level easterlies)

[GCANE]

OK.
So, I checked microwaves and there is a high-rain rate cell firing at 13.8N 73.2W.
Due very likely from the shear axis.
Could be one of those occasions where it may be strong enough to push shear out due to strong UL Outflow.
If this doesn't wash out in a few hours, it could develop a warm core and start firing in faster periods.
Its going to be touchy.

[South Texas Storms]

This is the best 90L has looked in quite a while. It still looks like the faster it develops, the farther north it could track.

[tropicwatch]

I will be glad when vis sats are up. It looks like possible rotation on enhance color IR.

[northjaxpro]

If I did not know any better, I think 90L has finally found its sea legs so to speak. Convection is finally increasing and appears converging and perculating around what appears to be an organizing LLC.

90L really needs to be monitored extremely close going forward. So, for those out there that were writing off 90L, well, you better re-assess your thinking. 90L is looking much healthier this morning.

[xironman]

Maybe a hint of something just south of the convection it does look like it is sharpening up at least

[GCANE]

Here's a view of the shear gradient.
Blue line is the axis.
Its firing right on the edge.
A few hot towers could get this spinning.

[GCANE]

Air around 500mb is saturated.
Good sweat spot for a warm core to develop.

[tropicwatch]

Could have Franklin in the works.

[South Texas Storms]

Taking a look at some of the first visible satellite images of the day, it looks like we might be seeing the formation of some feeder bands. The structure has definitely improved over the past several hours, with plenty of convection firing.

[northjaxpro]

Could have Franklin in the works.

Good morning Panama. Yeah, I think we have liftoff now underway. This vortex is well on its way of becoming Franklin. It is looking very good now.

[NDG]

Any hint of a vorticity/circulation going is in the mid levels IMO, the convection is still over the Caribbean low level jet. I am not expecting much until gets to the GOH at least if not the BOC.

[Nimbus]

Plenty of convection being blown up from the ULL to the north.
I don't know if I would go so far as to say it will become an outflow channel any time soon though.

[GCANE]

Not bad.
If another hot tower fires WSW of the last one, this could go.
X marks the spot.