ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#141 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:18 pm

A 300 mile shift SW in the last two runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#142 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:19 pm

Right on your doorstep Luis
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#143 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:19 pm

RL3AO wrote:A 300 mile shift SW in the last two runs.

Yes, decent SW and faster shift...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#144 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:20 pm

More south than 12z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#145 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:20 pm

Trending towards the Euro track wise
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#146 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:21 pm

The GFS keeps that pesky upper low near the Bahamas. That is probably a big part of whats keeping the ridge from building westward sooner. If the GFS is wrong about that upper low, well, then I'd expect a lot less poleward motion...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#147 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:24 pm

May go W on this run towards CONUS...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#148 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:24 pm

949mb cane north of PR at hour 186
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#149 Postby Siker » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:24 pm

948mb north of PR. Continues to be the strongest run yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#150 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:25 pm

Woah...this should end fun. This looks like Frances 04
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#151 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:25 pm

945MB at 192 hours, truly amazing
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#152 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:26 pm

This one is going to be close. The trough looks flat across the CONUS. The big player here will be the ULL near the Bahamas...It appears to be moving WNW in tandem with and out ahead of 99L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#153 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:26 pm

You can clearly see the GFS trending weaker with the upper low during the last few runs. That upper low was the saving grace for the US.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#154 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:28 pm

18z GFS... 198hrs... Big cane just N of Hispaniola... Moving WNW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#155 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:30 pm

936mb at 204 hours, north of DR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#156 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:30 pm

Blown Away wrote:18z GFS... 198hrs... Big cane just N of Hispaniola... Moving WNW


We've seen this play out just like this on these models sooooo many times before. I can't begin to count the times I've seen a model plant a big cane in that exact location.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#157 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:30 pm

weathaguyry wrote:936mb at 204 hours, north of DR


Maybe the "turn" starting at 204??? Maybe not HP looking to build W???
Last edited by Blown Away on Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#158 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:31 pm

Tack-wise the GFS is trending towards the Euro little by little it seems. Intensity-wise may take awhile to follow. This new GFS may be no stranger either with overdoing the intensity on future TC's as we've seen already with Invest 91E in the East Pacific which should've already been Jova according to the GFS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#159 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:31 pm

Of course by day 9, we've gone from a sub-540 dm trough over Hudson Bay during the 12z run to a 582 dm ridge over Hudson Bay at 18z. This is why we take the track with a big grain of salt. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#160 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:31 pm

Ridge looks to be filling in at 210...Florida might take it on the chin this run!!!
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