CPAC: FERNANDA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#141 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:38 pm

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Fernanda is rapidly intensifying. Satellite imagery indicates that
the central convection has become more symmetric, and there have
been hints of an eye in visible imagery. In addition, earlier
microwave imagery showed at lease a partial ring of convection
around the center. Subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range from 65-75 kt, so the initial intensity is
increased to a possibly conservative 70 kt. Conservative or not,
this is a 35 kt increase from this time yesterday.

The initial motion is a little south of west or 260/10, with part
of the southward component possibly due to some reformation of the
center as the cyclone intensified. During the next 48 h, a
deep-layer ridge to the north of Fernanda should steer the
hurricane generally westward, and the new forecast is similar to
the previous forecast. After that time, a large mid- to upper-level
trough over the central Pacific north of Hawaii should cause the
ridge to weaken, and the track guidance shows Fernanda turning
west-northwestward in response. The guidance is forecasting a
greater northward component of motion from 72-120 h than on the
previous runs, and thus the latter part of the track forecast is
nudged northward as well. Overall, the new forecast lies close to
the various consensus models.

While satellite imagery suggests that some shear continues to
affect Fernanda, so far it has done little to slow the development.
The hurricane should remain over warm water and in a light shear
environment for the next 72 h, and the SHIPS model Rapid
Intensification Index shows better than a 50 percent chance of a
35-kt increase in strength in the next 24 hours and a 45-kt
increase in 36 h. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for
36 h more of rapid strengthening. Given the lack of negative
factors, except for the possibility of eyewall replacement cycles,
the new intensity forecast could still be conservative even though
it lies above the intensity guidance. After 72 h, Fernanda should
encounter decreasing sea surface temperatures and drier air, and
this is expected to cause a steady weakening. The new intensity
forecast is again increased considerably over the previous forecast
during the first 36 h, and it is decreased below for previous
forecast at 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 11.2N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 11.1N 117.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 10.9N 119.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 10.9N 121.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 11.3N 123.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 12.5N 128.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 14.0N 132.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#142 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:42 pm

:uarrow:

NHC calling for 145MPH. You don't see this everyday folks.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#143 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:18 pm

Image

Fernanda continues to run south of the NHC track. Each deviation south and the loss of latitude will give it more time over warm waters and high OHC thus giving it more insurance to fulfill its max potential.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#144 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:22 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Fernanda continues to run south of the NHC track. Each deviation south and the loss of latitude will give it more time over warm waters and high OHC thus giving it more insurance to fulfill its max potential.


Yep. Southward shift in the short term with a northward shift in the longer (day 3+) term.
Image
Image
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#145 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:26 pm

30-40 ACE units might be a good call for Fernanda similar to Jimena 2015
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#146 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:47 pm

Over shooting cold tops keep obscuring the core.

Image
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#147 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:56 pm

Ntxw wrote:30-40 ACE units might be a good call for Fernanda similar to Jimena 2015


I think 30 ACE units is a good estimate.

40 ACE units are attainable but it's going to have to overachieve. Jimena 2015 was a borderline cat.5 and had super Nino SST's and OHC in its favor. Plus it was late August and SST's were at or near their peak.

What also pushed Jimena in getting all that ACE was that the waters east of Hawaii were warm as it traversed them. Right now they're marginal as best (as it's only mid July).

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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#148 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:01 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Euro is north of the islands @ 240 hrs and the GFS is south. (Expect the track to change)

Image


If it goes north of the islands, there won't be much left of it when it gets there. If it stays below about 15-16N it might be able to hold up.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Storm

#149 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:09 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Euro is north of the islands @ 240 hrs and the GFS is south. (Expect the track to change)

[img]http://i.imgur.com/tpXK9sU.png[mg]


If it goes north of the islands, there won't be much left of it when it gets there. If it stays below about 15-16N it might be able to hold up.


There's actually a good chance it gets torn apart even if it stays at or below 15N. Honestly it just depends on where the STJ is situated + how strong Fernanda is and if it can maintain an overhead anti-cyclone long enough to keep the upper levels conducive.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#150 Postby storminabox » Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:13 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:

NHC calling for 145MPH. You don't see this everyday folks.


Yeah 145MPH seems unusually bullish for the NHC
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#151 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:26 pm

14/0000 UTC 11.1N 116.4W T4.5/4.5 FERNANDA -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#152 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:51 pm

EP, 06, 2017071400, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1165W, 75, 988, HU
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#153 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:27 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/14/17 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 83 89 93 98 103 107 109 107 102 100 92 84
V (KT) LAND 75 83 89 93 98 103 107 109 107 102 100 92 84
V (KT) LGEM 75 83 89 94 97 101 104 105 105 102 95 82 70
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 6 4 4 5 2 2 3 1 4 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 -3 -1 1 -3 -2 -1 1 8 7 3
SHEAR DIR 18 16 1 358 31 358 25 310 341 12 314 334 272
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.0 26.3 25.9
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 149 148 146 149 152 150 143 134 126 121
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 -51.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4
700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 70 71 71 70 70 68 62 58 54 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 19 21 24 27 28 28 30 29 27
850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 20 27 31 17 6 3 10 15 28 34 47
200 MB DIV 74 71 56 81 86 60 83 67 116 71 91 38 41
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -4 -2 -4 -4 -1 1 4
LAND (KM) 1482 1544 1610 1675 1743 1867 1967 2088 2220 2331 2326 2128 1973
LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.9 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.3 15.0 15.7
LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.5 118.5 119.4 120.3 122.3 124.6 126.9 129.1 131.3 133.6 135.3 136.6
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 11 11 12 11 12 10 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 20 19 18 20 27 44 51 28 13 8 5 3 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 15. 15. 17. 14. 11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 32. 27. 25. 17. 9.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 11.1 116.5

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 10.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.32 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 11.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 2.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 8.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 5.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 8.7
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 218.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.63 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 3.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.6 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 5.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 49.3% 57.0% 48.0% 41.8% 28.5% 36.9% 20.7% 9.6%
Logistic: 56.9% 71.0% 63.2% 57.3% 47.7% 39.3% 19.3% 10.0%
Bayesian: 51.9% 69.0% 42.2% 30.9% 12.5% 13.8% 3.9% 0.1%
Consensus: 52.7% 65.7% 51.1% 43.3% 29.5% 30.0% 14.6% 6.6%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#154 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:31 pm

Im sure it's stronger than 75kts. Waiting for a decent microwave pass.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#155 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:50 pm

So if this were to hit Hawaii, we're no longer expecting Fernanda to cross all the way to easternmost WPAC?
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#156 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:52 pm

dexterlabio wrote:So if this were to hit Hawaii, we're no longer expecting Fernanda to cross all the way to easternmost WPAC?


I doubt this makes it past 150-155W.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#157 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:57 pm

^Oh I see, I thought we're looking at some sort of Ioke 2006 crossover. Let's wait and see how far this cane will go.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#158 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:58 pm

dexterlabio wrote:^Oh I see, I thought we're looking at some sort of Ioke 2006 crossover. Let's wait and see how far this cane will go.


It can make it if shear is low and it doesn't gain too much latitude.
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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#159 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:21 pm

@RyanMaue
Perhaps a pin-point eye is developing w/Hurricane Fernanda. I'd like to see at Cat 5.


Image

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/885684470812160000


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Re: EPAC: FERNANDA - Hurricane

#160 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:38 pm

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Fernanda continues to strengthen. Although there has been no hint
of an eye in geostationary satellite imagery, the center is
embedded within a symmetric CDO and a recent SSMIS overpass
revealed a small banded eye. The upper-level outflow is well
established over the eastern and southern semicircles but there is
some evidence of a little northerly shear beneath the high cirrus
layer that may have temporarily slowed the intensification process.
Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers range from T4.0 to
T4.6, which yields an initial intensity estimate of 75 kt.

The upper-level pattern over the cyclone is forecast to become
ideal for strengthening with the shear remaining quite low
throughout the forecast period. As a result, significant
strengthening is forecast while the hurricane moves over SSTs of
28-29 deg C during the next couple of days. The SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index is still indicating a notable chance of RI
over the next 24 hours, and the NHC foreast once again calls for
rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time,
eyewall replacement cycles could cause some fluctuations in
intensity. In about 72 hours, the hurricane is expected to begin
moving over cooler water which should result in weakening late in
the period.

Recent satellite fixes show that Fernanda is moving slightly south
of west or 260/10 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the
cyclone is expected to keep the hurricane on a general westward
heading during the next day or so. After that time, a mid- to
upper-level trough to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
expected to cause the western portion of the ridge to weaken.
This should cause Fernanda to turn west-northwestward over the
weekend. The track guidance is in very good agreement, and the
new NHC track is essentially an update of the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 11.0N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 10.9N 118.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 10.8N 120.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 11.1N 122.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 11.7N 124.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 13.0N 129.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 14.4N 133.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 15.8N 137.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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