ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Could this be another Tropical Storm Erika from 2015? Where the models had it going north of the islands, but it continued to trend into the Caribbean instead.

Doesn't matter if it goes north of the islands or south at this point. It's dying as soon as it approaches the islands.

I agree, but I was just merely pointing out if it could take a similar track to Erika that year.

Maybe. But Erika had trouble written all over it if it missed key mountainous areas. Not so sure if that will even be the case for this one.

[cycloneye]

Arrives in my neck of the woods.

[RL3AO]

I almost get the feeling that if it took the path between the GFS and Euro, that it would probably find the most favorable (or least unfavorable) conditions. Too far south, you get into the Caribbean death trap (thanks to the EPac systems about to ramp up). Too far north, and it runs into the TUTT near 25N and gets shredded. The path down the middle might be survivable.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I almost get the feeling that if it took the path between the GFS and Euro, that it would probably find the most favorable (or least unfavorable) conditions. Too far south, you get into the Caribbean death trap (thanks to the EPac systems about to ramp up). Too far north, and it runs into the TUTT near 25N and gets shredded. The path down the middle might be survivable.

Did your name just change color, or am I crazy?

[RL3AO]

Did your name just change color, or am I crazy?

The correct paperwork arrived.

[Alyono]

Doesn't matter if it goes north of the islands or south at this point. It's dying as soon as it approaches the islands.

I agree, but I was just merely pointing out if it could take a similar track to Erika that year.

Maybe. But Erika had trouble written all over it if it missed key mountainous areas. Not so sure if that will even be the case for this one.

Erika dissipated well before it hit the mountains. It was sheared apart by the el niño

As for this one, the weakening in the EC looks like a mile high pile of horse you know what. The 200mb winds are out of the EAST and it is weakening beneath an upper ridge. No equatorward outflow channel, but the poleward one is more than sufficient to allow a TS to survive

[Kingarabian]

I agree, but I was just merely pointing out if it could take a similar track to Erika that year.

Maybe. But Erika had trouble written all over it if it missed key mountainous areas. Not so sure if that will even be the case for this one.

Erika dissipated well before it hit the mountains. It was sheared apart by the el niño

As for this one, the weakening in the EC looks like a mile high pile of horse you know what. The 200mb winds are out of the EAST and it is weakening beneath an upper ridge. No equatorward outflow channel, but the poleward one is more than sufficient to allow a TS to survive

Then I guess it's the overall sinking state the Atlantic is in due to the suppressed Kelvin. Also, does it look to be moving too fast where it can't vertically stack?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Did your name just change color, or am I crazy?

The correct paperwork arrived.

Fair enough, LOL.

I am starting to doubt that this system ever amounts to too much, conditions seem rather unfavorable past the D5 period. Marginal SSTs if it goes further north, and the ever-present threat of shear if it goes further south. Hmm...

[RL3AO]

Then I guess it's the overall sinking state the Atlantic is in due to the suppressed Kelvin. Also, does it look to be moving too fast where it can't vertically stack?

The sinking (at least the VP 200mb anomalies) is from the MJO. There's actually a favorable Kelvin wave now moving through the area.

[Alyono]

Maybe. But Erika had trouble written all over it if it missed key mountainous areas. Not so sure if that will even be the case for this one.

Erika dissipated well before it hit the mountains. It was sheared apart by the el niño

As for this one, the weakening in the EC looks like a mile high pile of horse you know what. The 200mb winds are out of the EAST and it is weakening beneath an upper ridge. No equatorward outflow channel, but the poleward one is more than sufficient to allow a TS to survive

Then I guess it's the overall sinking state the Atlantic is in due to the suppressed Kelvin. Also, does it look to be moving too fast where it can't vertically stack?

the EC is underdoing the effects of the Atlantic westerly wind burst that we're seeing. Far too much vorticity present to not have fairly significant development

[Kingarabian]

Erika dissipated well before it hit the mountains. It was sheared apart by the el niño

As for this one, the weakening in the EC looks like a mile high pile of horse you know what. The 200mb winds are out of the EAST and it is weakening beneath an upper ridge. No equatorward outflow channel, but the poleward one is more than sufficient to allow a TS to survive

Then I guess it's the overall sinking state the Atlantic is in due to the suppressed Kelvin. Also, does it look to be moving too fast where it can't vertically stack?

the EC is underdoing the effects of the Atlantic westerly wind burst that we're seeing. Far too much vorticity present to not have fairly significant development

And what do we make out of the GFS being much further north and being weaker?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

As of 18:00 UTC Jul 03, 2017:

Location: 8.7°N 32.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

[Alyono]

Then I guess it's the overall sinking state the Atlantic is in due to the suppressed Kelvin. Also, does it look to be moving too fast where it can't vertically stack?

the EC is underdoing the effects of the Atlantic westerly wind burst that we're seeing. Far too much vorticity present to not have fairly significant development

And what do we make out of the GFS being much further north and being weaker?

BAD low level vorticity interaction. Seems like a bad run of the MU. HWRF has come in stronger at 12Z

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looks like it lost some latitude...interesting.

[RL3AO]

BAD low level vorticity interaction. Seems like a bad run of the MU. HWRF has come in stronger at 12Z

Euro has some interaction with another vort max further to the east too. I'll feel more comfortable in a day or so once it spins up and detaches from the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Something seems off with the first three days of this GFS run.

[weathaguyry]

I agree, with the vorticity signature that the Euro is showing, it simply does not make sense as to why this is not spinning up, although I have heard some chatter about some Mid- Range issues with the Euro. I say that in about 48 hrs. we'll have a better picture of where this is going, right now it's anyone's guess, really

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/881939603007176704

[tolakram]

Full 12Z euro run

[RL3AO]

12z GEFS