ATL: IRMA - Models

[RL3AO]

Euro 72 hrs... @30 miles E and @20 Miles S of 00z run...

Those times are 12 hours apart.

[tgenius]

A hair east of yesterday's 12z

Well if it's moving a bit slower, that might explain why its a bit east from 12z, but of course this is just conjecture at this point!

[forecasterjack]

12Z ECMWF tries to wrap dry air into Irma's inner core but it likely doesn't quite make it all the way in. Should be enough to slow down the RI and possibly trigger an ERC, but the tap shuts off soon after it opens. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/36 ... 0600z.html

[KWT]

Upper high is just a touch weaker on this run, all very marginal though. Down to 16N pretty much. The 120hr frame will be the one that we need to see, we'll know whether there is any movement towards the GFS on that frame.

[AxaltaRacing24]

A hair east of yesterday's 12z

Well if it's moving a bit slower, that might explain why its a bit east from 12z, but of course this is just conjecture at this point!

Main reason is due to the 12 hour time difference. But it is most likely a tiny bit slower.

[Bocadude85]

A hair east of yesterday's 12z

Well if it's moving a bit slower, that might explain why its a bit east from 12z, but of course this is just conjecture at this point!

Looking a little closer today's run is southeast of yesterday's 12z.

[forecasterjack]

Upper high is just a touch weaker on this run, all very marginal though. Down to 16N pretty much. The 120hr frame will be the one that we need to see, we'll know whether there is any movement towards the GFS on that frame.

Would hate to see you limited to just 7 frames full temporal resoluton: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/36 ... 0600z.html can use menus to change parameters/time steps. Click map to zoom, click near edge of map to pan and create custom domains

[Stormcenter]

What is that over Texas?!?!?!??

A hair east of yesterday's 12z

Well if it's moving a bit slower, that might explain why its a bit east from 12z, but of course this is just conjecture at this point!

Main reason is due to the 12 hour time difference. But it is most likely a tiny bit slower.

[Blown Away]

96 hrs... (12z GFS 15.2N/49W) (12z Euro 15.8N/52.5W)

Euro @120 miles farther W than GFS at 96 hours...

[SouthFLTropics]

120...watch out islands

[forecasterjack]

Sure enough, inner core walled off from dry air intrusion. Then tap shuts off.

[forecasterjack]

By Monday, all the dry air is mixed out of the storm's circulation as it nears the Islands. Bad.

[sma10]

120...watch out islands

[im g]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017083112/ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_6.png[/img]

No agreement at all at 120hrs with GFS, and by the look of that pattern I would not expect any at 144 either. If anything, there is a Euro/HWRF camp - albeit the HWRF a bit slower.

[tolakram]

A hair east of yesterday's 12z

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017083112/ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_5.png[/img]

CHECK YOUR PM's

S2K rule, if you use IMG tags you must first copy to an image hosting site. Thankyou.

[SouthFLTropics]

120...watch out islands

[im g]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017083112/ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_6.png[/img]

No agreement at all at 120hrs with GFS, and by the look of that pattern I would not expect any at 144 either. If anything, there is a Euro/HWRF camp - albeit the HWRF a bit slower.

Agreed...This run might get into the Caribbean before it's all said and done.

[Steve]

I think we've bugged Frank enough for now.

Frank means well because he doesn't want to get hit. But regarding Harvey when it was 91L, "It came off several degrees higher than 99 - probably a recurving system as most are at that latitude..."
--------------------------------------------------------------
ECMWF taking that strong dive toward the islands at 96 hours. I'm curious to see what it does through the remainder of the run.

European 00Z vs. 12Z

00Z @ 72 hours was 18.4N/44.9W
00Z @ 96 hours was 16.9N/49.9W
00Z @ 120 hours was 16.3N/54.4W

12Z @ 72 hours is 17.4N/47.0W
12Z @ 96 hours is 16.6N/51.6W
12Z @ 120 hours is 16.4N/56.3W

I realize there are 12 hours between 00Z and 12Z so ECMWF covers a little less ground west (9.3 degrees in the 12Z vs. 9.5 degrees in the 00Z) based on my placement of the cursor at what looks to be the center.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro through 144.

[KWT]

Just starting to move a hair north of west around 120hrs but still heading close to the NE Caribbean, at that point its likely to hit the islands.

It is also to the north of the 00z run as well, not by a huge amount but small differences will make the difference between a Hispaniola hit and it missing to the north.

[Blown Away]

Euro through 144, HP looks a bit weaker, I'm betting we see a WNW to NW track through 240 hrs...

[Hurricaneman]

Us in Florida want a quick mover over the big islands to knock the stuffing out of this, but if it's north of the greater Antilles we have a problem and I believe the Euro is heading in that direction but we have to see how the run ends