ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTrackerLA]

NHC track has shifted east a bit too.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210302
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 28 20170621
025200 2722N 09013W 8428 01500 0010 +175 +166 153059 059 032 000 00
025230 2723N 09011W 8432 01496 0012 +175 +167 155057 059 031 000 00
025300 2725N 09010W 8429 01501 0013 +175 +170 154055 056 032 000 00
025330 2726N 09008W 8432 01499 0012 +177 +173 153055 056 031 000 00
025400 2727N 09007W 8429 01501 0014 +175 +174 155054 055 032 000 00
025430 2728N 09005W 8428 01505 0015 +175 +173 155054 055 031 001 00
025500 2729N 09004W 8429 01507 0019 +175 +172 157055 055 031 001 00
025530 2730N 09002W 8430 01509 0020 +177 +167 157054 055 032 000 00
025600 2731N 09001W 8428 01510 0020 +177 +171 158053 054 033 000 00
025630 2732N 08959W 8430 01508 //// +170 //// 159051 053 034 001 01
025700 2732N 08959W 8430 01508 0021 +175 +173 159047 048 033 001 01
025730 2734N 08956W 8429 01512 0022 +178 +174 159049 050 034 001 00
025800 2736N 08955W 8430 01509 //// +168 //// 157050 052 035 001 05
025830 2737N 08953W 8433 01511 0029 +175 +148 151052 053 034 001 00
025900 2738N 08952W 8426 01518 0028 +180 +134 150051 052 034 000 00
025930 2739N 08950W 8429 01515 0028 +180 +147 150052 053 034 001 00
030000 2740N 08949W 8429 01514 0028 +180 +160 151053 054 033 000 00
030030 2741N 08947W 8430 01516 0026 +185 +154 151053 054 031 000 00
030100 2742N 08946W 8428 01519 0026 +186 +152 151052 053 030 001 03
030130 2744N 08945W 8213 01745 0028 +173 +152 152051 052 031 000 03
$$
;

[ROCK]

I don't know if I've ever seen such a large Tropical Storm Warning area.


000
WTNT33 KNHC 210257
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...CINDY STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 91.0W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to the
Alabama-Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain and the
New Orleans Metropolitan area.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Alabama-Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 91.0 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and then toward the north is expected Wednesday
night and early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy
will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas
late Wednesday and Wednesday night, and move inland over
southeastern Texas on Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
nearby ships indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is expected on Wednesday. Slight weakening is forecast to begin on
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
mainly north through northeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6
inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into
southeast Texas through Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area overnight and spread westward
within the warning area through early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, with isolated areas possibly up to 4 feet.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Wednesday
from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

eh Rita and IKE approached this type TS wind field....

[Skogebo]

I drove from San Antonio to Dothan, Alabama today and hit constant rain from about Slydell, Louisiana onward to Bonifay, Florida. The ground was already pretty saturated. There's definitely going to be a mess due to flooding in some areas.

[abajan]

In the Atlantic, when's the last time we've had three named storms by June 20th? (Apologies if this has already been asked and answered, but it's a long thread!)

Last season.

LOL Indeed.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210312
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 29 20170621
030200 2745N 08943W 7884 02095 0027 +157 +134 154051 052 /// /// 03
030230 2746N 08942W 7564 02433 //// +126 //// 155051 055 /// /// 05
030300 2748N 08941W 7291 02750 0013 +123 +110 157050 052 034 000 00
030330 2749N 08939W 7122 02951 0010 +120 +084 159047 049 033 000 00
030400 2751N 08938W 7039 03053 0008 +120 +062 159047 047 032 000 00
030430 2753N 08937W 6982 03117 0009 +119 +042 161047 048 032 000 00
030500 2754N 08935W 6967 03143 0006 +123 +022 164046 046 031 000 00
030530 2756N 08934W 6967 03140 0004 +125 +017 164044 045 031 000 00
030600 2757N 08932W 6967 03145 0009 +122 +019 162043 044 031 000 00
030630 2759N 08931W 6967 03140 0013 +119 +027 161043 044 031 000 00
030700 2800N 08930W 6967 03144 0016 +115 +037 159042 043 031 000 00
030730 2802N 08928W 6967 03142 0016 +116 +035 158041 042 031 000 00
030800 2803N 08927W 6902 03225 0017 +110 +041 157040 041 031 000 00
030830 2805N 08926W 6808 03346 0031 +102 +024 157040 040 033 000 00
030900 2806N 08924W 6718 03460 0038 +090 +043 157040 040 033 000 00
030930 2808N 08923W 6700 03486 0039 +088 +047 156039 041 030 000 00
031000 2810N 08921W 6703 03480 0039 +090 +047 158039 040 030 000 00
031030 2811N 08920W 6700 03482 0043 +087 +052 158039 040 030 000 00
031100 2813N 08919W 6701 03489 0043 +089 +043 157036 038 030 000 00
031130 2814N 08917W 6701 03487 0043 +090 +020 155035 035 031 000 00
$$

Mission over. Short flight back.

[SueOrleans]

We're in our 15th hour of rain here in the New Orleans area. Winds have gradually increased, but are reaching a new intensity in the last half hour. The roof of my covered patio is banging pretty regularly. We're shouting to hear each other, but still outside. I think we'll head in soon.

[Hammy]

In the Atlantic, when's the last time we've had three named storms by June 20th? (Apologies if this has already been asked and answered, but it's a long thread!)

Last season.

LOL Indeed.

Interestingly this year is the third time since 2012 as well.

[SunnyThoughts]

Tornado watch now all along the gulf coast including the panhandle of Florida.

[Janie2006]

RIghty-o. I'll add my bit (as I do every season, it seems) by saying that any tornadoes that *do* form will be fast-moving sons-of-guns....on the scale of up to 55-60 mph. Your mileage may vary.

[Jagno]

Oh Lawt, Jim Cantore showed up................things are fixin to get real as the kids put it. LOL

[CrazyC83]

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Alabama
Florida Panhandle
Southern Louisiana
Southern Mississippi
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1020 PM
until 1000 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible

SUMMARY...A strong low/mid-level wind field on the periphery of
Tropical Storm Cindy, in conjunction with an increasingly moist
maritime air mass (75+ F surface dewpoints), will support an
increasing risk for tornadoes through the overnight and early
morning hours of Wednesday.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Houma LA
to 40 miles south southeast of Marianna FL. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 15020.

...Guyer

[Steve]

Here is a bit of yellow/orange rain by Homedale Inn in Lakeview section of New Orleans.

https://youtu.be/7JMkMjVzFuI

[Ptarmigan]

Tweets and images from Ryan Maue
[tw eet]https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/877226773913767937[/tweet]

ECMWF 12z landfalls TS Cindy into Houston ... could be some strong winds ... keep watch on the coast ... 990 mb is minor hurricane pressure

saved image
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/W7qgD2a.png[/img]

Interesting to see that the EURO has Cindy as a Category 1 hurricane.

[bella_may]

Rain has been falling pretty heavily at my house for almost an hour now. Yard is starting to fill up with water holes

[KimmieLa]

Rain has been falling pretty heavily at my house for almost an hour now. Yard is starting to fill up with water holes

Radar is showing rain here, but, none is falling. Stay dry!

[CrazyC83]

It's still holding about 110 miles south of me. The rainbands have hardly moved this evening...

[bayoubebe]

Bella, Kimmie, Crazy where is your location? Relative of mine has house for sale in Metairie. It is on a street by Martin Wine Cellar. They are in Houston now. Wonder how much they will get there too.

[bella_may]

Bella, Kimmie, Crazy where is your location? Relative of mine has house for sale in Metairie. It is on a street by Martin Wine Cellar. They are in Houston now. Wonder how much they will get there too.

George County, MS

[KimmieLa]

Bella, Kimmie, Crazy where is your location? Relative of mine has house for sale in Metairie. It is on a street by Martin Wine Cellar. They are in Houston now. Wonder how much they will get there too.

I'm in BTR.