ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

If you are talking whole life, I say 874mb, flt 205nph, sfmr 185mph

That's probably not possible that far north, but an interesting guess.

[tiger_deF]

Looks like the eye is contracting again. Another EWRC? Or just a temporary shift?

[RL3AO]

Looks like the eye is contracting again. Another EWRC? Or just a temporary shift?

It's probably just upper level clouds expanding over the eye.

[tolakram]

Some kind of structural issue, perhaps the last gasps of the ERC, or another one?

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=19235&y=6948&z=4&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Frank2]

Irma now north of the official track:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Scorpion]

Wow that's so strange, never seen such a well defined eye get suddenly clouded over like that.

[Blinhart]

If you are talking whole life, I say 874mb, flt 205nph, sfmr 185mph

That's probably not possible that far north, but an interesting guess.

Just don't see her getting above 32N.

[MetroMike]

Irma now north of the official track:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Wobble wars have commenced.

[Frank2]

Cool pool probably...

[Blinhart]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

I'm thinking another EWRC is already happening.

[tatertawt24]

Isabel went through tons of ERCs. It wouldn't surprise me if this does the same thing.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Isabel went through tons of ERCs. It wouldn't surprise me if this does the same thing.

Especially with the cold water.

[1900hurricane]

The eye has cooled dramatically, but a medium grey eye embedded within a black CDO is still good for a DT of 5.5 (5.5 eye number for black, no eye adjustment).

[BensonTCwatcher]

The positive side of me is glad to see most have headed out to Sea. The realistic side of me says crap still decent odds for Florida.

Yeah, 3 day, 4 day and 5 day plots of storms like that have South FL and Eastern NC as the most hits. You can bet we're watching Irma. Classic CV Hurricane and September set up. It's all about that trough.

That trough appears to be dipping a bit far south for this time of year doesn't it?

it would be the first fall/winter type this year, have seen them in early oct. most of the time like that, not that common I would say.

[HurricaneRyan]

Irma is quite the drama queen

[1900hurricane]

SAB analyzed the same frame as me a few posts above, but it looks like we are at odds regarding the embedded shade. They went light grey for the embedded shade with a black ring, while I went black for the embedded shade. That results in me being half a T number higher.

TXNT25 KNES 020004
TCSNTL

A. 11L (IRMA)

B. 01/2345Z

C. 19.1N

D. 39.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...EYE HAS COOLED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MG EYE IS
EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.0 WITH NO
EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[1900hurricane]

I'd go 100 or 105 kt for 00Z personally.

[gatorcane]

It looks like the turn to the WSW may be in progress looking at the SW side of the storm with clouds expanding WSW.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 105 kts.

AL, 11, 2017090200, , BEST, 0, 191N, 398W, 105, 964, HU

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Good case where I would love to see recon data✈️ satellite estimates fluctuating big time but is it really representing the surface? #Irma

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/903778821677223936