ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 29.0N 73.5W AT 13/1900Z.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[HURAKAN]

sharp trough

[Sanibel]

Naked spiral IMO...

[Siker]

UKMET bombs this out on its way out to sea:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 25.1N 69.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2017 36 26.1N 70.2W 1011 27
1200UTC 13.08.2017 48 27.9N 72.3W 1010 27
0000UTC 14.08.2017 60 29.5N 73.2W 1009 28
1200UTC 14.08.2017 72 30.8N 73.5W 1006 39
0000UTC 15.08.2017 84 32.6N 73.8W 1005 35
1200UTC 15.08.2017 96 34.3N 73.1W 1006 33
0000UTC 16.08.2017 108 35.8N 70.1W 1006 33
1200UTC 16.08.2017 120 38.4N 65.1W 996 48
0000UTC 17.08.2017 132 40.4N 59.5W 987 54
1200UTC 17.08.2017 144 42.7N 51.8W 976 65

[RL3AO]

Outflow looks a little better today...

Climatology favors development and the models not so much. We'll see.

[ColdMiser123]

Mid-level swirl disjointed from the low-level swirl to the east. Even with 10 KT of shear, the low humidity is proving to be efficient at entraining into 99L. Outflow boundaries still visible, indicating dry air is still getting ingested.

[tolakram]

visible loop

Shear is supposed to drop but so far still getting hammered.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15291&y=6207&z=4&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[chaser1]

Where have we seen this before?? Time will tell whether this nicely disjointed mid level circulation with the low level COC off to the west, will get better vertically stacked. Looks like it's slowing getting there though.

[floridasun78]

it look moving west? not nw

[wxman57]

it look moving west? not nw

It's moving just as had been predicted. Nothing unusual. No U.S. threat.

[StormTracker]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

An area of disturbed weather centered a couple of hundred miles
north of Puerto Rico continues to move toward the west-northwest
or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. There are no indications of a closed
circulation at this time, but upper-level winds are forecast to
become a little more favorable for development by the weekend. Dry
air aloft could limit additional development of the thunderstorm
activity, making the overall environment only marginally conducive
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Nimbus]

it look moving west? not nw

The central pressure is around 1012 mb in a very small area, the pattern has been that the wave picks up convection near sunset and gains a little latitude. During the day it has been running out from under the convection on a little more westerly track. Doesn't look like it is going to dissipate so it could get into the Bahamas a little ahead of schedule.

There was no forecast for a satellite lobe of the polar vortex that would favor a deep trough along the east coast. A trough scenario is what almost all the models are calling for, so I guess its over 50% probability that Florida will be saved again.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Its looking to me like the LLC is being pulled back under the convection as it is firing. The outflow on the north side is becoming more clockwise instead of being blown off in one direction. The MLC looks to be under an anticyclone, so if the LLC can be pulled east by the convection thats popping to the east, this could be a whole different ball game.

[Emmett_Brown]

A weak LLC of sorts near 22.3N, 66.1W moving just slightly N of due W at about 16 mph most of the day. Totally reminds me of Hermine last year. (The dislocated LLC and MLC structure, with the LLC running out to the W) If it follows a similar pattern, the MLC will die out, and the system will have to start all over again with a new burst of convection tonight, until the shear finally drops enough for it to get vertically stacked.

[storm4u]

Hwfi takes this to a cat 5.... That definitely won't happen

[AxaltaRacing24]

Hwfi takes this to a cat 5.... That definitely won't happen

IF it forms could this possibly pull a Gaston 2.0 on it's way out to sea?

[OuterBanker]

To be honest I really don't see much happening with 99l. Atmosphere is dry both east and west of it. It also hasn't really cleared a path on either side of it according to the WV maps. Pretty dry for 40 w to past 70 w in the mdr. On the other side I do see that the mdr is starting to moisten up from Africa to about 42 w and starting to expand west.. I now can see why they are predicting a active season. At some point the lid will come off.

[gatorcane]

This thread was started on Aug 3rd (believe it or not) and this thing has still not developed. I think somebody mentioned if this invest sets a record for longest active invest without development?

[Emmett_Brown]

This thread was started on Aug 3rd (believe it or not) and this thing has still not developed. I think somebody mentioned if this invest sets a record for longest active invest without development?

It started out as such a big wave too... and was almost totally gone a couple of days ago. I still think it will develop as it recurves up and out, probably just a TD or weak TS though. Just my gut feeling. Early August conditions often look just like July.

[emeraldislenc]

The Board has gotten quite