ATL: JOSE - Models

[Ken711]

After the turn, it appears that a ridge will build over this, and make it head WNW and eventually NW, after that there are the dying remnants of Irma over the Ohio/WV area, that would kick this out to sea if it moves off shore, or throw it back into land somewhere if it stays there, it will all depend on how far South/West he can get after the loop, and what the remnants of Irma do as he rounds the ridge, Once he completes his loop, models will likely have a better hold on him, since they aren't always perfect with predicting loops or anything for that matter

I don't think that low will have much affect. It looks like the loop will be slower to finish.

[CrazyC83]

After the turn, it appears that a ridge will build over this, and make it head WNW and eventually NW, after that there are the dying remnants of Irma over the Ohio/WV area, that would kick this out to sea if it moves off shore, or throw it back into land somewhere if it stays there, it will all depend on how far South/West he can get after the loop, and what the remnants of Irma do as he rounds the ridge, Once he completes his loop, models will likely have a better hold on him, since they aren't always perfect with predicting loops or anything for that matter

There also seems to be an upper level low or trough pushing into the Great Lakes on September 18ish, which could be what would turns it back inland if close enough.

[weathaguyry]

After the turn, it appears that a ridge will build over this, and make it head WNW and eventually NW, after that there are the dying remnants of Irma over the Ohio/WV area, that would kick this out to sea if it moves off shore, or throw it back into land somewhere if it stays there, it will all depend on how far South/West he can get after the loop, and what the remnants of Irma do as he rounds the ridge, Once he completes his loop, models will likely have a better hold on him, since they aren't always perfect with predicting loops or anything for that matter

I don't think that low will have much affect. It looks like the loop will be slower to finish.

I wasn't really that clear, but I was talking about the effects that the trough would have once the got closer to the US coastline, maybe a week from now? The GFS has what I'm pretty sure is a shortwave lurking around Ohio in this timeframe.

[Aric Dunn]

After the turn, it appears that a ridge will build over this, and make it head WNW and eventually NW, after that there are the dying remnants of Irma over the Ohio/WV area, that would kick this out to sea if it moves off shore, or throw it back into land somewhere if it stays there, it will all depend on how far South/West he can get after the loop, and what the remnants of Irma do as he rounds the ridge, Once he completes his loop, models will likely have a better hold on him, since they aren't always perfect with predicting loops or anything for that matter

I don't think that low will have much affect. It looks like the loop will be slower to finish.

I wasn't really that clear, but I was talking about the effects that the trough would have once the got closer to the US coastline, maybe a week from now? The GFS has what I'm pretty sure is a shortwave lurking around Ohio in this timeframe.

yes.. but it all depends on how far south it goes. if its far enough then the trough wont pick it up hence the UKMET and a couple others.

[Evenstar]

Considering how the UKMEt has done with Irma.. I'm already have this in my radar..

When will we get our first NAM post on this thread?

You leave the NAM out of this.

Who do I blame for making me blow Dr. Pepper through my nose, the NAM or you?

[Aric Dunn]

When will we get our first NAM post on this thread?

You leave the NAM out of this.

Who do I blame for making me blow Dr. Pepper through my nose, the NAM or you?

lol..

well the GFS is quite a bit slower and weaker trough and stronger ridge.. looks like its at least going to bahamas.

[SouthFLTropics]

I cannot believe I am sitting here watching GFS 00z run for Jose while my weather station at my house still is showing 50MPH gusts outside from Irma. This is surreal.

[SouthFLTropics]

Jose is giving me serious vibes of Jeanne.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is only like 300 miles slower..

have a feeling quite a few more members will be far west..

[Alyono]

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.3N 67.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2017 0 23.3N 67.6W 987 62
1200UTC 11.09.2017 12 25.0N 69.4W 991 50
0000UTC 12.09.2017 24 26.6N 69.8W 988 51
1200UTC 12.09.2017 36 27.0N 69.0W 974 66
0000UTC 13.09.2017 48 26.5N 67.6W 969 67
1200UTC 13.09.2017 60 25.3N 67.1W 966 73
0000UTC 14.09.2017 72 24.1N 67.2W 958 73
1200UTC 14.09.2017 84 23.1N 68.6W 958 76
0000UTC 15.09.2017 96 22.8N 70.5W 952 83
1200UTC 15.09.2017 108 22.8N 73.0W 947 86
0000UTC 16.09.2017 120 23.4N 75.5W 944 87
1200UTC 16.09.2017 132 24.1N 77.7W 935 92
0000UTC 17.09.2017 144 25.3N 78.8W 930 93

not what Miami needs after today's unexpected hurricane strike

[WeatherEmperor]

The 00z UKMET looms absolutely terrible for Florida. This just cant be happening. I am speachless...


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[Aric Dunn]

just wait for the .. it wont be strong because of the SST's posts coming soon... lol

[Aric Dunn]

I guess this is a west shift for the UKMET>> well it both faster more north and more west.. so yeah...\\just toggle the last 2 images..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 7&title=12

[SFLcane]

Are you kidding me??

[Aric Dunn]

if the UKMET leads the pack this far out.. thats pretty amazing..

[AutoPenalti]

I swear if this is another Florida hit...

[Blown Away]

if the UKMET leads the pack this far out.. thats pretty amazing..

No power, downed power, and tree debris everywhere here in Hobe Sound because the Ukmet showed the track we saw today with Irma... Gotta at least give it some consideration...

[Blown Away]

if the UKMET leads the pack this far out.. thats pretty amazing..

No power, downed power lines, and tree debris everywhere here in Hobe Sound because the Ukmet showed the track we saw today with Irma... Gotta at least give it some consideration...

[SFLcane]

Wow lol... Getting blasted here in my grandmas house in vero beach complete darkness power went out few hrs ago. Gusts 80+ earlier this evening now still in 50's

[bahamaswx]

if the UKMET leads the pack this far out.. thats pretty amazing..

UKMET led the pack with Ike being pushed far south by the ridge when Ike was in a similar location.