ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Latest ECMWF suite (Op, Parallel, EPS) continue to show nothing materializing.

[cycloneye]

Latest ECMWF suite (Op, Parallel, EPS) continue to show nothing materializing.

It would be a coup for GFS if this develops.

[Alyono]

Latest ECMWF suite (Op, Parallel, EPS) continue to show nothing materializing.

there was a weak low in the EC. Stronger vorticity than the 12Z

[dexterlabio]

I remember the Euro was the first to show some decent vorticity approaching the Leeward islands while all others were showing development only in the GOM. It's been flip-flopping but sill it was the first one to hint of something approaching the islands.

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF has a decent Hurricane.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms. This disturbance has changed little in organization
since yesterday. However, some development is expected during the
next few days before conditions become less favorable for tropical
cyclone formation. This system is expected to continue moving toward
the west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
.

[abajan]

06z HWRF has a decent Hurricane.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/yV46g70.png[img]

I think this is the same model that last year predicted Matthew would be a hurricane just east of Barbados.

[GCANE]

Latest COAMPS (6/17 00Z) crashes it into Venezuela

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/ ... 50&tau=999

[cycloneye]

As of 12:00 UTC Jun 17, 2017:

Location: 5.9°N 40.1°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[cycloneye]

[Kazmit]

Looks like we're gonna see Bret very soon. Though is it rare for potential cyclones in the Atlantic to develop this far south? I remember Matthew last year also being a low rider, brushing the coast as far south as South America.

I wouldn't say it's that rare but it's certainly strange. When's the last time there was a Trinidad and Tobago storm?

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/1145 UTC 6.3N 39.4W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic
17/0545 UTC 6.7N 37.3W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic
16/2345 UTC 6.1N 35.7W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic

[Gustywind]

First appearence as a SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
721 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 11N southward. The wave is
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low pressure is along
the tropical wave near 05N. The precipitation has become better
organized during the last 24 hours or so. The chance of formation
into a tropical cyclone during the next two days is medium. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area
that is from 04N to 08N between 35W and 44W.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

92L appears to be near the western end of a monsoon trough. ASCAT shows SW winds south of the monsoon trough and NE winds to the north. This is providing great convergence and helping to enhance the low level vorticity. Convection will often die off when a disturbance tries to separate from the monsoon trough if it's not well formed enough because it loses the favorable background conditions the monsoon trough provides. We'll see what happens with 92L as it tries to detach, but this one looks fairly well developed to me. The monsoon trough only extends to about 40*W or so.

http://i.imgur.com/mFEsfA0.png?1

Looks like exact that might have happened this AM as 92L's lost most of its convection. For 92L to become a self-sustaining TC, it needs to be able to generate convection independently of the ITCZ. While the system looks pretty disorganized this AM, this is a necessary step in 92L's evolution.

[tolakram]

Saved loop: http://i.imgur.com/lCX99gQ.gif

source: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastfullDiskband02.html

[cycloneye]

RL3AO ,it did not happened last night. Will tonight be the one?

[RL3AO]

RL3AO ,it did not happened last night. Will tonight be the one?

I'm not sure. It's been pointed out that it's in the process of detaching from the ITCZ/Monsoon trough. It's a big night for it IMO.

[Hammy]

I remember the Euro was the first to show some decent vorticity approaching the Leeward islands while all others were showing development only in the GOM. It's been flip-flopping but sill it was the first one to hint of something approaching the islands.

Makes me wonder if we're back to 2014-era Euro, where it would show something in the long range, drop it, and then pick it back up the day before it formed. We should know by tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Mission planned for Monday afternoon.

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC EAST
OF TRINIDAD NEAR 9.5N 58.0W FOR 19/1800Z.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GEFS looks pretty solid: