ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

Making the trek inland now...intense eastern eyewall currently over LaBelle. Other inland towns in the crosshairs: Arcadia, Wauchula, Lake Placid, Sebring.

Don't see any westerly component of motion.

Those inland locations were part of the Charley 2004 World Tour. They were devastated then.

[ZX12R]

Latest steering

More easterly direction possible?

[lando]

Remember when everyone wa saying a storm that formed where Irma did could never hit the conus

[KBBOCA]

Should be a slow and gradual improvement for SE and East-Central Florida up into the Treasure Coast throughout the evening and overnight from here on out.

What a WICKED looking tail from Irma over SE Florida.
Again... it's why the forecast cone so misleading. SE Florida was largely out of the cone by this morning, yet getting a pretty good wallop. Forecast "cone" does NOT equal storm impact. No matter how much some of us preach it, it''s a hard message for many to grasp.

[NDG]

Watching WFTV, Merritt Island, inundated with water. Plus a tornado warning for them!

Yeah, in our part of the state's coastline has been tornado apocalypse all afternoon.

Yeah, so much for the sigh of relief many breathed on the East Coast of FL when the track shifted West... It's still been a pretty rough day for the entire East coast of FL, it seems.

The models were not lying with their wind forecasts for the east coast and threat of tornadoes, so many people were not believing it.

[KBBOCA]

There are no reports of widespread catastrophic surge in Naples or ft Myers yet. No flooding in downtown Naples.

This could be the BEST NEWS OF THE DAY assuming it holds true! I'm so relieved & thankful!

[jabman98]

Granted, it is not a verified source, but I am trying to be positive...

Thanks for the info. (I deleted the image, but it was about the Hemingway house.) I hope the source is good. It's worrying that no verifiable info is getting out of Key West.

[MrJames]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 81.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

[otowntiger]

Wow, wind gusts of hurricane force winds here in Orlando already, I didn't see this coming this early, gusts to 100+ mph don't seem that hard to get.

Conditions at: KMCO observed 10 September 2017 22:53 UTC
Temperature: 24.4°C (76°F)
Dewpoint: 24.4°C (76°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.43 inches Hg (996.7 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 996.3 mb]
Winds: from the ENE (70 degrees) at 36 MPH (31 knots; 16.1 m/s)
gusting to 79 MPH (69 knots; 35.9 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 miles (1.61 km)
Ceiling: 2000 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 2000 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2700 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance

. Me neither. I'm quite surprise and a little concerned. That core of strongest wind could be headed much closer to us than previously thought. NHC Continues to show it hooking left but no sign so far.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Irma's travel over Cuba might very well have saved Florida from far more serious damage. Not saying the damage won't be bad or widespread in the final tally, only that things could have been far worse even cataphoric if the inner core had not been disrupted by land interaction.

[stormreader]

Tornado after tornado warning here in Seminole County, Florida. This is nuts!

Will continue. Central to N Fl could be primed for tornadoes later tonight and in the pre dawn hours as the very low pressure hurricane slowly winds down. Interaction with the trough area will probably aid tornado development. Be on alert, because on occasion hurricanes can have serious type tornados. This storm will soon be broken into long and dangerously brutal squall lines filled with twisting storms.

[KBBOCA]

Hey all, I'm gonna call it a night here. Just shy of midnight in my time zone and my eyes are fried after 16 hours of staring at a screen..., plus I have a busy work day tomorrow.

Praying for all still in Irma's path tonight for safety & strength.

[nascarfan999]

There are no reports of widespread catastrophic surge in Naples or ft Myers yet. No flooding in downtown Naples.

This could be the BEST NEWS OF THE DAY assuming it holds true! I'm so relieved & thankful!

Another note that could affect the rest of the forecast, the eye has passed Ft. Myers yet there are no signs of their sea levels jumping in the same way Naples did. In fact, Ft. Myers remains around 3.8 feet below normal levels. Too early to call it for certain, but it sure seems like the eastward shift helped to minimize the surge on the west coast.

[Shell Mound]

There are no reports of widespread catastrophic surge in Naples or ft Myers yet. No flooding in downtown Naples.

This could be the BEST NEWS OF THE DAY assuming it holds true! I'm so relieved & thankful!

Another note that could affect the rest of the forecast, the eye has passed Ft. Myers yet there are no signs of their sea levels jumping in the same way Naples did. In fact, Ft. Myers remains around 3.8 feet below normal levels. Too early to call it for certain, but it sure seems like the eastward shift helped to minimize the surge on the west coast.

That seems like the only possible explanation. The storm was large and intense, so a track farther west would have produced a more widespread, significant surge.

By "intense," I am referring to the very low pressure in the midst of an extensive fetch (radius of tropical-storm and hurricane winds).

What irritates me is that media outlets like MSNBC are blaming the NHC for a busted forecast, when in fact the media outlets turned the NHC's "possible" surge disaster into a "certain" one.

And this is from a guy who evacuated from Tampa Bay to Columbia, S.C., via Savannah and is typing this at a hotel.

[jdjaguar]

Tornado after tornado warning here in Seminole County, Florida. This is nuts!

Will continue. Central to N Fl could be primed for tornadoes later tonight and in the pre dawn hours as the very low pressure hurricane slowly winds down. Interaction with the trough area will probably aid tornado development. Be on alert, because on occasion hurricanes can have serious type tornados. This storm will soon be broken into long and dangerously brutal squall lines filled with twisting storms.

Noted

Currently under tornado warning 18 miles south of my locale.

Winds 45 gusting to near 60

[johngaltfla]

Still getting pounded here. Wind is getting louder. Live Oaks not holding up so well(power bills going up now, sigh).

[johngaltfla]

There are no reports of widespread catastrophic surge in Naples or ft Myers yet. No flooding in downtown Naples.

This could be the BEST NEWS OF THE DAY assuming it holds true! I'm so relieved & thankful!

Another note that could affect the rest of the forecast, the eye has passed Ft. Myers yet there are no signs of their sea levels jumping in the same way Naples did. In fact, Ft. Myers remains around 3.8 feet below normal levels. Too early to call it for certain, but it sure seems like the eastward shift helped to minimize the surge on the west coast.

Too early. Our surge with yours will slam hard around 1 a.m.

[Hurricane_Apu]

There are no reports of widespread catastrophic surge in Naples or ft Myers yet. No flooding in downtown Naples.

This could be the BEST NEWS OF THE DAY assuming it holds true! I'm so relieved & thankful!

The 15' surge all went into a national park and sparsely populated farmland.
If you were starting with the scenario "a gigantic category 3/4 hurricane will make a south to north pass by Florida," this is pretty much the very best case other than a total miss out to sea.

Cut through the least populated region of the Keys, enter the least populated part of South Florida, stay overland so it will be weaker when it reaches the population centers to the north...
Still a significant event because it's a very strong hurricane with a vast wind field. Probably a top-10 or even top-5 in the all time damage rankings, because it will do moderate to occasionally severe damage over an enormous area.

[Smurfwicked]

I think it's too early to sound all clear for storm surge for SW Florida coast. Looking at surge graphic from Naples the surge level is staying with the tide level which is decreasing. Speculating that it will still rise to even higher levels later tonight as tide rises once again. Should also have on shore winds for quite some time.

[hipshot]

This could be the BEST NEWS OF THE DAY assuming it holds true! I'm so relieved & thankful!

Another note that could affect the rest of the forecast, the eye has passed Ft. Myers yet there are no signs of their sea levels jumping in the same way Naples did. In fact, Ft. Myers remains around 3.8 feet below normal levels. Too early to call it for certain, but it sure seems like the eastward shift helped to minimize the surge on the west coast.

That seems like the only possible explanation. The storm was large and intense, so a track farther west would have produced a more widespread, significant surge.

By "intense," I am referring to the very low pressure in the midst of an extensive fetch (radius of tropical-storm and hurricane winds).

What irritates me is that media outlets like MSNBC are blaming the NHC for a busted forecast, when in fact the media outlets turned the NHC's "possible" surge disaster into a "certain" one.

And this is from a guy who evacuated from Tampa Bay to Columbia, S.C., via Savannah and is typing this at a hotel.

I have been listening to MSNBC all day and I never heard them blaming anybody for a "busted" forcast. Forecasting is still forecasting so don't get your knickers in a knot!!!