ATL: IRMA - Models

[SFLcane]

Oh my on the GFS 899mb approaching coast. No way it's this strong though

[GCANE]

[KWT]

Expect the 06z track to be further west if that came off, the lower resolution section from 240hrs onwards shows a pretty sudden shift northwards from its pretty consistent WNW flow.

Anyway, obviously a major hurricane skirting up the east coast would be terrible news for sure...

[N2FSU]

Huge shift! I would say OBX should feel fairly safe, being in the bullseye at 10.5 days is usually where you want to be, but points south are looking more and more troubling.

[Nimbus]

Hugo.

If you consider the Euro long range to have any value than the spread is more like gulf coast to the Carolinas.
Future model trend will be important once the spread narrows.

Puerto Rico and the northeast Caribbean are my concern now, weak side of the storm would be not so bad.

[GCANE]

A little irony on the city and the date.

[USTropics]

It'll be interesting to see the 06z GFS ensembles, the 00z suite showed a tremendous spread in solutions (i.e. the entire EC, Florida, and even the EGOM):

[jlauderdal]

Looks like the GFS is caving to the Euro. Surprise, surprise...

still waiting on the gfs sofla hit but it appears to be in the cards next 24h...good luck to cycloneye and our friends in the islands..going to need extra good vibes to keep this one away

[GCANE]

Given the EPAC maybe clearing out, the BoC / GOM TC development may be viable.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

EC has no SE trof. L=EC Middle =GFS R=CMC

[SFLcane]

No that was a decent shift by the GFS nevermind intensity crapshoot..

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/yXHzUzV.png[/img]

[jlauderdal]

No that was a decent shift by the GFS nevermind intensity crapshoot..

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/yXHzUzV.png[/img]

intensity always difficult but the theme on all the modeling is a very intense system regardless of where it goes...3+ with no weakening in sight really over the next 10 days except for the shredder but the damage is already dont for the antilles by that time...also, those tutt's can show up and cause intensity issues too so will be on the lookout for those and hope they make an appearance..we haven't seen a high quality setup like this in awhile

[perk]

No that was a decent shift by the GFS nevermind intensity crapshoot..

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/yXHzUzV.png[/img]

That's a bit more than a decent shift.

[KWT]

Yeah SFLcane, the 06z has got a totally different synoptic evolution from the last 4-6 runs from the GFS and is now totally inline synoptically with the 0z ECM.

Only real difference is forward speed and how quickly the upper ridge weakens around 96-120hrs mark. Other than that actually decent agreement between the two.

Lets see what the 06z GFS ensembles show.

[jlauderdal]

No that was a decent shift by the GFS nevermind intensity crapshoot..

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/yXHzUzV.png[/img]

That's a bit more than a decent shift.

we can argue about the adjectives but the trend on the gfs is towards the euro and that we can all agree on

[GCANE]

Wow - hard to imagine.
COAMPS - Cat 4

[GeneratorPower]

Wow. Euro looking scary in long range. Concerning, given that the Euro usually sniffs out the pattern to day 5-6 very well. That puts Irma in a favorable spot to impact the Southeast US.

[SFLcane]

View of ECMWF ensembles this morning...

[KWT]

COAMPS looks too slow, at 12z the system is pretty much near the longitude the model expects. Strength is interesting and I could well believe it does become a major as soon as it expects but the track looks way too far north in the short term.

awaiting the ensembles and especially to see the individual members.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/903216057971871744