ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

Power gone here in Stuart...let the suck begin..

[kunosoura]

Anyone in Florida who can describe the current conditons with Irma? How does she compare with Matthew?

So far I'd say similar to Matthew here in Jupiter - in my locale it goes from calm to gusty breezy back to calm. So far it's been a non-event in my area, and I assume it's because of dumb luck as to where the feeders set up in relation to my location. There could be more to come. We still have power. Had a couple of tornado warnings, both velocity signatures appeared to be relatively weak according to radar.

I'm floored by the videos of the feeder band that's been hanging out over Ft. Pierce. They're getting smacked around pretty good.

https://twitter.com/PhotogEricP/status/ ... 7005325313

[ConvergenceZone]

Sure looks NNE to me. Reminds me of Charley which took a more NNE track instead of N. Most models thought north.

The absolutely last sentence I wanted to hear!

It sucks because since there is a decent chance of this going East of Tampa, I'm extremely happy about that since I have lots of friends in the Pinellas Park area, but at the same time, that means someone down South will get it.I guess there is no real right response, such a sad situation

[GCANE]

Recon just recorded 70 mm/hr rain rate in eyewall.
Likely intensification imminent.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Guys I'm really scared. How sure are we that Irma may landfall south of Tampa? If we get surge my house is near sea level on Tampa Bay and I will lose everything. Someone please reassure me. Thank you in advance.

[caneman]

Looks like the NNW motion is true. Guessing eyewall skirts Naples and hits Port Charlotte. My opinion

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/906848385814208513

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/Q4lqUNY.png

Look at how flat the flight level winds (and to a lesser extent, surface winds) are way out to offshore Miami. Very little drop off (after the eye wall) over a huge distance.

I saw that, the NE quadrant of Irma is no joke.

[WxGuy1]

It's recon still flying into her?

Recon is done for the event according to their Twitter account. (**EDIT** I apologize -- I was mistaken and have been corrected by fellow S2Kers. The AF recon is flying! )

Irma looks to be a shadow of its former self -- it never seemed to get back to what it looked like during its rampage last week after it interacted with Cuba Friday and early Saturday. This is good news, in general. It looks like dry air entrainment and increasing shear are eating away the south side. The story, IMO, isn't the cat 4 winds (if there are any) but rather the very large wind field and the potential for big surge along Florida's southwest coast. As others have noted, there are very strong wind gusts occurring well away from what remains of the eyewall.

[PandaCitrus]

We have to watch for land frictional effects as the eyewall approaches Naples and Sanibel island. IRMA might bounce off southwest Florida and refuse to go inland just like she did in Cuba for some time.

[GCANE]

Significant Tornado Potential strengthening and getting uncomfortably close to Miami area.
Likely to be an issue latter this morning and afternoon.

[Michele B]

Sure looks NNE to me. Reminds me of Charley which took a more NNE track instead of N. Most models thought north.

The absolutely last sentence I wanted to hear!

It sucks because since there is a decent chance of this going East if Tampa, I'm extremely happy about that since I have lots of friends in the Pinellas Park area, but at the same time, that means someone down South will get it.I guess there is no real right response, such a sad situation

Pretty much, Irma knew all the "right" things to do to give us all the "worst" she has. Apparently most of FL will feel plenty of strong effects of this.

[AdamFirst]

Power gone here in Stuart...let the suck begin..

Still on here in PSL.

My house never lost power during Matthew...don't think I'll be so lucky this time

[Michele B]

Guys I'm really scared. How sure are we that Irma may landfall south of Tampa? If we get surge my house is near sea level on Tampa Bay and I will lose everything. Someone please reassure me. Thank you in advance.

Are you in an evacuation zone?

[craptacular]

It's recon still flying into her?

Recon is done for the event according to their Twitter account.

Irma looks to be a shadow of its former self -- it never seemed to get back to what it looked like during its rampage last week after it interacted with Cuba Friday and early Saturday. This is good news, in general. It looks like dry air entrainment and increasing shear are eating away the south side. The story, IMO, isn't the cat 4 winds (if there are any) but rather the very large wind field and the potential for big surge along Florida's southwest coast. As others have noted, there are very strong wind gusts occurring well away from what remains of the eyewall.

NOAA's hurricane hunters are done, but the AF is in there right now ... just made second pass through the eye on current flight.

[tolakram]

It's recon still flying into her?

Recon is done for the event according to their Twitter account.

Irma looks to be a shadow of its former self -- it never seemed to get back to what it looked like during its rampage last week after it interacted with Cuba Friday and early Saturday. This is good news, in general. It looks like dry air entrainment and increasing shear are eating away the south side. The story, IMO, isn't the cat 4 winds (if there are any) but rather the very large wind field and the potential for big surge along Florida's southwest coast. As others have noted, there are very strong wind gusts occurring well away from what remains of the eyewall.

NOAA recon is done, Air Force will continue to fly until final landfall.

[HenkL]

URNT12 KNHC 101356
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 10/13:41:10Z
B. 24 deg 45 min N
081 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2515 m
D. 105 kt
E. 067 deg 10 nm
F. 154 deg 118 kt
G. 066 deg 13 nm
H. 933 mb
I. 13 C / 3052 m
J. 20 C / 3046 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 3011A IRMA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 121 KT 151 / 23 NM 12:09:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 160 / 6 KT

[GCANE]

[NDG]

This is when the models forecasted to start strengthening and it sure looks like that what Irma might do north of the Keys.

[Rail Dawg]

Here in Naples no longer safe to go outside.

Large tree branches coming down.

Like the lumberjacks say "Death comes from above".